Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 101907
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
205 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Cold weather pattern will continue throughout the week...

Tonight-Monday...Large/broad central and eastern CONUS trough will
keep a cold winter weather pattern in place. High pressure ridge
will settle across ECFL tonight into Monday, with another cold night
ahead. NW gradient winds will weakens with a light drainage flow
continuing overnight. With such a dry air mass in place, temps will
plummet through the 40s this evening and into the 30s areawide
tonight. Could see near freezing temps for an hour or two by sunrise
near Lake George/Ocala Forest, however the limited areal/temporal
extent seems to preclude need for any freeze warning. Patchy frost
seems like a good bet, especially in sheltered areas, as some
"rooftop frost" was reported by local ORL media this morning.

Monday...Full sun and continued cool temps, but not nearly as cold
as today. Maxes will average about 5F warmer - L60s north to U60s
south under a NW wind of about 5-8 MPH.

Monday Night...The flow remains zonal aloft as an east-west
elongated piece of energy continues to weaken over the central FL
peninsula during the 24 hour period. PWAT values generally one half
inch or less and will keep conditions dry as weak surface high
pressure holds in place. Winds will be light SW/WRLY.

Overnight lows will be warmer then previous two nights, generally in
the L-M40s, but normally cooler rural locations may realize U30s,
but no threat for freezing temps, or frost/wind chill concerns.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly zonal flow aloft during this period. A
piece of upper energy pinwheeling around a fairly strong upper low
over the Great Lakes will drive a reinforcing cold front down the FL
peninsula late on Tue with high pressure over the Deep South and
north GOMEX building in from the west overnight Tue thru Wed. PWAT
values may increase to around 0.75 inches, but more cooling/drying
behind this latest system will drive values back to 0.25-0.35 inches
overnight Tue. Conditions appear to remain mainly dry over land.
Moderate SW/WSW flow ahead of the front on Tue will veer to WNW/NW
behind it with winds becoming light.

Highs on Tue ahead of the front will rebound into the L70s areawide,
with lows behind the front Tue night falling back into the L-M40s,
except U40s/L50s immediate Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier
islands. A chillier day Wed once again with highs in the L-M60s and
chilly overnight into Thu morning, lows U30s/L40s interior with
immediate coastal lows along the Space/Treasure coasts in the M-U40s.

Thursday-Sunday...W/NW flow aloft continues with another piece of
energy diving southward and driving another cold frontal boundary
down the FL peninsula on Fri with high pressure building in once
again promoting a pleasant day Sat. Less than a 20pct chance for a
light shower surrounding this next front, as moisture remains
limited, otherwise continued dry conditions for ECFL. Temps will
rebound into the U60s-L70s for highs with mins generally in the 50s,
except some normally cooler rural locations may realize U40s
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC.

&&

.MARINE...Tonight-Monday...High pressure ridge will settle SE over
central Florida, resulting in slackening NW to N winds. Speeds near
15KT tonight decrease to 10KT on Monday. Seas of 5-6FT offshore this
evening will necessitate a Cautionary Statement, before winds
slacken further, to 3-5FT after midnight, and 2-3FT near shore 4FT
offshore on Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...Weak high pressure ridge remains across the region
Mon night-early Tuesday, then another cold front will be driven
southward down the peninsula late on Tuesday with high pressure
building back in again for Wednesday/Thursday. NW winds near 10KT
will back to westerly Tuesday with speeds increasing during the day
on Tue 15-20KT near shore and 20KT offshore as the pgrad tightens
ahead of/behind next front. Tuesday evening winds will veer more
WNW/NW with speeds potentially 20-25KT over the open Atlc finally
decreasing Wednesday-Thursday.

Initial seas 2-3 ft near shore and 4 ft Gulf Stream will build 2-4FT
near shore and 4-5FT offshore late Tuesday, continuing to respond to
increasing winds Tuesday night, 4-5FT near shore and 6-8FT well
offshore. As winds slowly decrease, seas will gradually begin to
subside to AOB 3 ft areawide Wednesday night-Thursday. A SCEC/SCA
will be necessary Tuesday into at least a portion of Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure ridge will settle over ECFL tonight-
Monday. Given cold/dry air mass in place, potential for scattered
frost exists tonight. which would dry out fine fuels. Min RH values
in the M20s-L30s expected on Monday. Ridge slides south of ECFL late
Monday night-Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. This front passes
through ECFL Tuesday night followed by another shot of cool/dry air
through Wednesday night. Another cold front is forecast to push
across ECFL Friday (GFS/GEM) or Friday night/Saturday (ECM).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  35  63  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  38  62  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  36  64  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  37  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  37  63  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  37  62  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  40  62  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  37  67  42  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Johnson



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