Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 150945
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Cold front will weaken today as it moves into north
Florida this morning and then slowly southward across the area
tonight. Westerly flow will continue to tap into moisture over the
Gulf that will spread eastward across northern areas ahead of the
front. Max PW values will only be around an inch, with most of the
moisture in the lower levels below 800mb, resulting mainly in
greater cloud cover north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure
Coast. Some weak isentropic lift will exist just ahead of the
approaching boundary which may lead to a few sprinkles through
the day across northern areas. However, with MOS PoPs remaining
below 20 percent and measurable precipitation generally not
expected with this activity, will leave rain chances out of the
forecast.

Warming trend will continue today ahead of the front with highs
reaching the mid 70s over much of the region. Overnight lows will
then fall into the low to mid 50s again tonight, as passing frontal
boundary remains weak.

Weekend...The weak cool front will settle across south FL Sat
night and become diffuse. A north to northeast wind shift behind
the front Sat will produce a slightly cooler day but lack of
moisture assocd with the front will keep rain chances out of the
forecast. High pressure over the SE US will push east and offshore
the Carolina coast Sunday. This will allow surface wind flow to
veer out of the E-SE. High temps Sat will range from the upper 60s
along the Volusia coast to lower 70s metro Orlando and mid 70s
Treasure coast/Okeechobee. Lows Sunday will be in the 50s, except
low to mid 60s immediate coast. Highs Sunday will warm into the
upper 70s, except mid 70s Volusia coast.

Mon-Thu...00Z GFS/ECMWF are in reasonable agreement early next
week showing mid level ridge over FL straits/Cuba. This will
keep warm/dry conditions across the forecast area through Tue as
deeper moisture gets steered around the ridge to the north of the
area. Above normal high temps expected to reach the lower 80s both
days. Then model solutions diverge mid week when the GFS shows the
next front reaching central FL Wed while the ECMWF keeps the front
to our north and continues the warm/dry weather thru Thu. The
difference is attributed to how each model ejects an upper low
over the desert SW across the southern US. The GFS is more potent
with the short wave, weakening the ridge aloft which allows the
front to make more of a southward push. Using a model blend
produces token 20 PoPs for Wed-Thu. Since the model guidance is
not in agreement here, there is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast but confidence should increase in the next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Cold front will approach
the area today and then push southward across central Florida into
tonight. Airmass remains rather dry ahead of the boundary, with
any precipitation generally limited to a few light sprinkles.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow up to 10-15 knots north of Sebastian Inlet expected
today as a weakening cold front approaches the area. As this
boundary pushes southward over the waters tonight, winds will
become northerly and generally remain below 15 knots. Seas will
range from 1-3 feet.

Sat-Tue...High pressure over the southeast US will produce north
to northeast winds 10 knots on Sat behind the weak frontal
boundary. The high will push offshore into the western Atlc
Sunday and wind flow will respond by veering to the E-SE with
speeds remaining around 10 knots, except 10-15 knots across the
south. A trailing ridge axis is forecast to slip slowly southward
across the local Atlc waters and FL peninsula early next week
producing a SE flow Monday and S-SW on Tue with speeds remaining
10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  51  67  53 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  76  54  72  54 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  75  56  73  56 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  75  53  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  76  53  70  52 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  76  53  70  53 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  76  55  71  55 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  75  52  74  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Kelly



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