524
FXUS62 KMLB 111759
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
159 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Afternoon and evening storms are forecast, especially across
  the southern counties; frequent lightning, gusty winds 45-55
  mph, and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Heat and humidity continue with peak heat index values 100-107F
  into the weekend; visitors and residents are encouraged to stay
  cool and well-hydrated.

- Scattered rain and storms are forecast each afternoon and
  evening with coverage increasing into next week; strong storms
  and localized flooding possible.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Today... A surface ridge axis in place across south Florida,
gradually lifts northward and into central Florida. A wave of
locally higher moisture lifts in vicinity of the ridge axis. This
should generally favor scattered to numerous (50-60%) shower and
storm development along portions of the Treasure Coast and across
Okeechobee county today. Further north, the forecast remains rather
persistent with the development of the east and west coast sea
breezes. Coverage mostly remains scattered in vicinity of I-4 this
afternoon with a late increase in storm coverage as a sea breeze
collision occurs. Although, shear profiles remain weak, high surface
instability and moisture could allow for wet downbursts with
localized wind gusts up to 55 mph. Slow moving storms could also
allow for localized rainfall accumulations of 2-3" which could
result in ponding of water on roadways or minor flooding of urban or
low lying areas.

High temperatures remain in the low 90s across the south where cloud
cover and rain chances will be highest. Further north, highs reach
the mid 90s. Muggy conditions will produce peak heat index values
between 102-106F, and there is a Moderate to Major heat risk across
much of the Orlando metro today.

Saturday-Sunday... The surface ridge axis gradually retreats as weak
troughing builds offshore the southeast U.S. coast into Sunday.
Increasingly humid conditions and continued rain chances (~60%) are
forecast through the period. Temperatures hold slightly above normal
this weekend, ranging the low to mid 90s. When factoring in
humidity, maximum apparent temperatures are expected to climb
between 102-107F, and conditions could near Heat Advisory criteria.
A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals without
effective cooling and adequate hydration. To reduce risk of heat
stress, outdoor weekend activities should be limited to the morning
hours ahead of peak heating while still incorporating frequent
breaks in an air conditioned building or the shade.

Some relief from the heat may come in the form of afternoon rain
chances each day. Weak synoptic flow should allow the development of
the east and west coast sea breeze each day, helping to kick start
showers and storms. However, peak coverage (60%) remains favored in
the late afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundaries interact and
a sea breeze collision occurs. Ridging above 700mb will generally
limit development of well organized strong storms due to weak shear
and warming temperatures aloft. However, favorable low level lapse
rates should still be supportive enough for strong updrafts which
can mix down dry air aloft (DCAPE > 1,000 J/kg). Therefore, an
isolated strong storm threat remains. Primary hazards associated
with isolated stronger storms include wind gusts up to 55mph and
lightning strikes. Minimal steering flow will lead to slow and
erratic storm movement. A localized heavy rainfall threat continues
where repeated rounds of slow moving storms may occur.

Monday-Thursday... A weak wave of mid level vorticity lifts
northwestward from the Bahamas and over the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, global models have hinted at a broad area of low pressure
developing in vicinity of Florida, and a wet pattern looks to set up
from Monday onward. The current forecast calls for rain chances
around 70% through the extended period, and could see gradual trends
higher as confidence increases in time. A saturated air column with
PWATs greater than 2" could fuel a flooding rainfall threat, but
there are some significant model inconsistencies in daily QPF output
that will need to be monitored with future forecast updates. While
widespread totals are uncertain, more localized daily instances of 2-
4" will be possible across areas which receive multiple rounds of
showers and storms. This could result in ponding of water on
roadways and minor flooding of urban or low lying areas.

Temperatures fall a few degrees into next week with increasing rain
chances, and highs generally range the upper 80s to low 90s each
afternoon. Lows temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A surface ridge axis remains in place across the local waters late
this week before retreating eastward early next week. Light
southwest winds generally hold, backing south to southeast along the
coast as the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 ft
gradually subside, becoming widely 2 ft by Sunday. Scattered showers
and storms remain in the forecast through the weekend before a more
unsettled pattern takes over next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR continues to prevail over the TAF period outside of convection
late afternoon/early evening. Winds increase to 6-10 knots and
veer to the SSE as the ECSB pushes inland starting at 18z.
Maintained Tempo groups for MCO, SFB, ISM, as well as VRB
southward this afternoon for MVFR conditions in TSRA. Added Tempos
for LEE for MVFR conditions within TSRA starting at 23z.
Convection will diminish shortly after sunset (around 00-03z).
Overnight, winds become light and variable. Tomorrow morning,
winds out of the SSW will increase to 5-10kts before backing
onshore with ECSB in the afternoon. Scattered convection along
ECSB is forecasted tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  93 /  30  40  20  60
MCO  76  95  76  94 /  40  60  20  70
MLB  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  60
VRB  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  10  60
LEE  76  94  76  93 /  30  40  10  60
SFB  76  95  76  94 /  30  50  20  70
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  40  50  20  70
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  20  40  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Cornell/Watson