Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 142049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...
Stationary front over central FL will wash out overnight as a
broad H100-H70 anticyclone extending from the mouth of the MS
River to the Carolina Coast consolidates over north FL and drifts
into the central peninsula. Airmass will become increasingly
surpressed as winds thru the H85-H50 lyr shift to due north an
push a dry/stable mid lvl airmass over the remnant frontal
moisture bndry overhead... H100-H85 mean RH values AOA 80pct.
Winds thru the H100-H85 lyr bcmg lgt/vrbl overnight as the ridge
drops into central FL...E/SE AOB 5KTS over the Treasure
Coast/Lake-O region, W/SW north AOB 5KTS north of I-4.

Light sfc winds, high low lvl moisture, and dry/stable conditions
aloft will be favorable for fog/low stratus formation once again
this evng, even more favorable than this mrng. Indeed, WRF/GFS MOS
output have been quite bullish over the past few runs, can see no
sig reason to disagree, esp if a light drainage flow dvlps over the
interior. Despite light winds, high sfc RH will keep min temps in
the U50s/L60s, arnd 10F abv avg.

Thu/Thu night...(Modified prev disc)
A 590DM H50 ridge blanketing the GOMex will drift east while the low
level ridge axis across central FL merges with the weak west flank
of the Atlc ridge. Weak dry air advection thru H100-H70 as the low
lvl ridge pushes east and taps a dry/stable airmass over the Bahama
Bank...PWATs decreasing from arnd 1.50" to 1.00"-1.25". Areas of fog
(lcl dense) with low stratus will persist thru mid mrng, but
clearing rapdily late mrng/midday to ptly/msunny skies. Dvlpg srly
sfc/low lvl flow will push aftn temps into the M/U70s along the
coast and L80s inland. Light south/southeast winds bcmg calm
overnight with areas of fog dvlpg inland/ptchy fog near the coast.
Low temps will range from U50s/L60s.
___

No changes in the medium-extended range...Night time fog will be
the only potential weather related hazard over the next 2 to 3
nights. Previous discussion below...

Fri...The surface ridge axis will slip slowly south through the
day reaching the srn counties into late afternoon. The mid level
ridge aloft will elongate eastward toward south FL and the
Bahamas. Dry weather will continue with a drier airmass lingering
near the surface ridge axis with PWATs around .9 inches across the
south and up to 1.1-1.2 inches from Orlando northward. High temps
will reach the lower 80s coastal to mid 80s interior.

Sat-Mon...The mid level ridge east of state will be dominant weather
feature into early next week which should keep a frontal boundary
approaching north Florida Sunday well north of the area through
Sunday and into Monday. Model moisture progs indicate limited
moisture in the low to mid levels espec from H8-H7 which will keep
precip chances very low to nil with warm temperatures continuing.
Highs will reach near 80/lower 80s coast to mid 80s across the
central/srn interior each day. Low will be mainly in the 60s.

Tue-Wed...A stronger surface high pressure area off the eastern
seaboard will produce a period of slightly stronger southeast low
level flow into mid week. Some moisture return from the southeast
may be sufficient for isolated convection across the interior
Tuesday and northern zones Wednesday. Little change in the warm
weather pattern is extended through the extended period with highs
into the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 15/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 15/02Z...N of KVRB-KOBE N/NE 8-12KTS...S of KVRB-
KOBE E/NE 8-12KTS. Btwn 15/02Z-15/05Z...bcmg N/NE 4-7KTS. Btwn
15/05Z-15/14Z...vrbl AOB 3KTS. Aft 15/14Z...E/SE 6-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 15/02Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas MVFR cigs btwn
FL010-020/lcl IFR cigs btwn FL005-009...S of KISM-KTIX MVFR cigs
btwn FL020-030.

Btwn 15/02Z-15/06Z...N of KFPR-KOBE MVFR cigs btwn FL010-020 areas
IFR cigs btwn FL005-000/MVFR vsbys btwn 3-5SM in BR...S of KFPR-KOBE
MVFR cigs btwn FL020-030.

Btwn 15/06Z-15/15Z...IFR cigs btwn FL005-009/MVFR vsbys btwn 3-5SM
in BR...N of KISM-KMLB areas LIFR cigs/vsbys in FG.

Aft 15/15Z...bcmg VFR all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thursday...Gentle to moderate NW to NE breeze will diminish
overnight as high pres build over N FL/NE GOMex, bcmg lgt/vrbl north
of Sebastian Inlet, light to gentle E/SE south of the Inlet. Ridging
will then gradually build eastward thru the day Thu, winds bcmg
light to gentle E/SE breeze by late aftn. Lcl seas will be enhanced
by a 3-4FT NE swell, keeping nearshore combined seas in the 4-5FT
range nearshore, and 5-6FT offshore. High moisture pooling within
the remnant trof of a dissipating frontal bndry over central FL will
combine with the light winds and cool shelf waters to generate areas
of dense fog off the Volusia/N Brevard County coast.

Fri-Sun...S/SW flow is expected through the period with the surface
high center well east of Florida. Should be mainly dry across the
waters with seas 2-4 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3 ft Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  77  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  82  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  78  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  79  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  61  82  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  81  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  78  61  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bragaw
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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