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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A RESURGENCE OF VERTICAL MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SOME PASSING UPR
DISTURBANCES HAS LED TO ONGOING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER N CENTRAL
FL. FAVORABLE SR INFLOW AND FORCING ALOFT HAS KEPT ACTIVITY
PERSISTING THROUGH THIS CURRENT TIME OF DIURNAL CONV MINIMUM.

LIGHT S/SE FLOW WL CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPLYING MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. THE LIGHT PRESSURE PATTERN WL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ALONG BOTH COASTS ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH A LATE AFTN
COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHCS WL BE
HIGHER INLAND AND LOWER AT THE COAST DUE TO INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE ECSB BOUNDARY AND EVENTUAL LATE AFTN COLLISION NR LAKE
COUNTY/WRN ORANGE COUNTY. COASTAL SECTIONS WL LIKELY SEE BEST RAIN
CHC DURING THE MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AND INLAND MOVING EAST
COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHCS WL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT HIGHER
THAN SATURDAY DUE TO BETTER FORCING ALOFT AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN
SLOW MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG I-4
CORRIDOR WILL WIND DOWN BY AROUND 11 PM WITH DISSIPATING
CLOUDINESS PAST MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 70 BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

MON-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BEST MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN A DRYING TREND
STARTING OVERNIGHT THU. DAY TIME POPS 30 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST
POP INTERIOR DUE TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS
EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT
THE COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND MAINLAND COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

SAT...WEAK FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT IS
BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC BUILDING ACROSS
THE STATE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR FROM 700MB AND
ABOVE MOVING IN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD LOWER POPS T0 20 AND
30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH ISOLD MORNING SHRA/TS WITH ATTENDANT MVFR CONDS OVER
LAKE/VOLUSIA COS THROUGH 10Z. SCT SHRA/TS MNLY INLAND PRODUCING
BRIEF MVFR CONDS FM 18Z-23Z WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY AFT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT IN S TO SE FLOW. LOCAL WIND WAVE REMAINS THE
MOST PREVALENT COMPONENT WITH AN UNDERLYING 9-10 SEC SWELL.

MON-THU...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH TUE THEN INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WATERS WED
AND THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY IN NORTH FLORIDA. SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET MON AND TUE BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WED AND
THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  71  83  69 /  30  20  50  20
MCO  88  70  87  68 /  40  30  50  30
MLB  86  72  84  70 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  85  72  84  70 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  88  70  87  69 /  40  30  50  20
SFB  89  70  88  69 /  40  30  50  20
ORL  88  71  88  70 /  40  30  50  30
FPR  84  71  84  70 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER