Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 161935
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
235 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SUN...Strong surface high pressure over the Deep South
will transition toward the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard, sliding offshore
through Sun. Locally, low level winds will veer as previously
forecast NE-E overnight, then E-SE on Sun. The persistent maritime
flow will further moderate post-frontal effects for east central
Florida. Stubborn cloudiness within multi-decks (low/mid/hi) today
has made itself a variable/minor nuisance from Leesburg, to
Sanford, to Daytona. The shield will continue to erode, but linger
in spots particularly from Sanford to Daytona. Expect some
additional cirrus to stream in from the west overnight. As such,
will leave out mention of patchy ground fog (in public forecast) at
this time even though winds should die off for several hours.
Even so, the overall pattern remains dry and benign. Across east
central Florida, Min Temps L50s (north/interior) to M60s
(south/coastal). Max Temps Sun M/U70s.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...High pressure over the western Atlc will
weaken slightly as it is nudged slowly southward with the east-
west oriented ridge axis settling over the central FL peninsula
from north FL on Mon. Conditions remain forecast to stay dry.
Light ESE winds Sun evening will veer more SE/S on Mon. The
pressure gradient remains weak so winds will be light during the
day and light to calm at night. PWAT values still hover near 1
inch or a little on either side of this number. Aloft, high
pressure ridging will remain fairly stout with center over the
Bahamas/FL Straits. This will keep surface/upper-level weather
systems north of the region.

With a subsidence inversion each night, expect some fog formation,
more thick over the interior, and likely becoming dense at times
toward sunrise. Any fog/low stratus that develops will likely take
thru mid-morning to burn off in more prone locations. Overnight mins
generally in the U50s/L60s, but may stay a bit higher along the
immediate coast/barrier islands. Highs on Mon generally 80 to 82,
but may realize U70s along the immediate coast with the onshore flow.

TUE-SAT...(Modified from Previous Discussion) 12Z GFS/ECMWF
remain in reasonable agreement showing an extended period of
mainly benign weather conditions for east central FL. A strong mid
level ridge of high pressure over the FL straits/Bahamas will
keep warm/dry conditions across the forecast area through Wed as
deeper moisture gets steered around the ridge to the north of the
area. Above normal high temps expected to reach the lower 80s each
day, except upper 70s coastal sections. Even low temps look to
hold in the low to mid 60s during mid week. Then a cut- off low
over the desert SW is forecast to eject E/NE across the southern
US which should flatten/weaken the ridge aloft enough to allow a
weak cool front to settle south into north/central FL Thu. Have
drawn a small 20 PoP for showers across Melbourne-Lake Kissimmee
northward on Thu. Not much, if any, cooling is expected then both
models show the ridge aloft rebuilding across the area Fri into
Sat with above normal temps continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...Stubborn ceilings BKN025-035 and BKN050-060 persist
from KSFB to KDAB. The area of cloudiness should continue to
erode and improve after 21Z. VFR...with some streaming cirrus
otherwise coming in from west. Have included a few patches of
ground fog 09-12Z with TEMPO VSBY 5SM.


&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SUN...Strong high pressure will transition toward the
Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and then slide offshore the Carolina coast.
A progressive veering of local winds will trend from NNE-E
overnight to E-SE for Sun. Winds generally 10 knots or less with
seas 2-3 feet. Boating conditions will be favorable.

Sun Night-Thu...High pressure over the western Atlc will settle
slowly southward with associated east-west oriented ridge axis
reaching southward into the local (northern) coastal waters Mon/Mon
night, remaining over the area into early Wed before being shunted
east and south ahead of an approaching weak cool frontal boundary.
This boundary is forecast to sink into the area on Thu. The pressure
gradient remains weak thru this time with wind speeds generally 6-12
kts. Wind speeds may approach 10-15 kts Wed night into Thu offshore
and north of Sebastian Inlet. ESE/SE wind component Sun night will
transition, at times, to E or S, then SW by daybreak Wed ahead of
the approaching boundary. Depending on how fast/how far south the
front actually progresses, expect winds to veer behind the front to
N/NE. Seas still 2-3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TONIGHT-SUN...Skies will be partly cloudy tonight as NNE-NE-E
winds drop off and become light, especially away from the
immediate coast. Dry conditions through Sun, even as the maritime
wind flow improves the Min RH conditions.

MON-THU...High pressure ridging, weak pressure gradient, light
winds (poor to fair dispersion) in control of the weather until a
weak cool front slides southward into N-C/Central FL on Thu.
Generally dry conds until Thu, and even then only a 20pct chance
or less for light showers, greatest chances northward. RH values
still forecast to remain well above critical thru the period. Both
max/min temps above climo.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  75  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  55  78  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  77  61  79 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  62  77  60  80 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  53  77  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  54  77  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  55  77  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  77  60  79 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....TS


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