Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 151530
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread dense fog/low stratus is burning off rapidly south of the
I-4 Corridor, but will linger thru late mrng to the north. Lgt/vrbl
flow thru the H100-H70 lyr as a deep anticyclone has settled over
central FL, centered just north of Tampa Bay. Position of the
anticyclone has left the lcl airmass largely surpressed, RAP40
analysis shows descending mid lvl omega/upr lvl divergence fields
and negligible vorticity, while the 15/12Z RAOBs all show a sharp
subsidence inversion in the H85-H70 lyr with significant drying abv
H85. PWat values btwn 1.00"-1.25" over north/central FL, decreasing
to 0.50"-0.75" over the south.

Lingering areas of fog/low stratus will burn off by midday, but low
lvl moisture lvls remains sufficient to maintain partly cloudy
skies. Ridging over central FL will effectively cap the lcl airmass
arnd H85, while lgt/vrbl winds sfc/low lvl will limit any
potential for mesoscale bndry interaction. Fcst will remain dry.
Updates to remove mrng fog, no substantive changes necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 16/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 15/18Z...Vrbl AOB 3KTS bcmg E/SE 5-8KTS. Btwn 16/01Z-
16/04Z...bcmg S/SW AOB 3KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 14/17Z...areas IFR cigs/MVFR vsbys in BR. Btwn
16/03Z-16/06Z...lcl MVFR vsbys in BR. Aft 16/06Z...interior sites
areas LIFR vsbys/IFR cigs in FG/BR...coastal sites ptchy MVFR vsbys
in BR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pres centered over central FL will produce lgt/vrbl winds
today... generally W/NW arnd 5KTS thru early aftn, bcmg E/NE 5-10KTS
nearshore as the east coast seabreeze dvlps. Long pd easterly swell
will continue to enhance the lcl sea heights...seas 3-4FT nearshore
and 4-5FT offshore. Areas of sea fog over the shelf waters north of
Cape Canaveral expected to burn off by early aftn.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.

AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Lascody



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