Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 200240
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NOTHING BUT A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES THIS EVENING FOR THE UPDATE.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE AS WELL. LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS IS PASSING TO OUR EAST. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL TAKE OVER BY TOMORROW FOR A DRY AND MILD DAY. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT FOR THESE AREAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE SITUATED
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO SUBSIDE.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY APPROACHING THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MILES CITY-BILLINGS-LIVINGSTON LINE. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT AGREMENT AND CONSISTENCY DIFFER QUITE A BIT LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE LATE NEXT WEEK. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
VAROUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE PLACED A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WAVE AND SPLIT FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
ALSO...LATEST MODEL RUNS PLACE THE UPPER LOW EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENEDED PERIOD EXCEPT TO WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. THE ONE VARIABLE THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF SHOW ANY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. OVERALL THOUGH...THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL MOST LIKELY BE UNSETTLED. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN ROUTES ON SATURDAY...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/073 049/075 053/077 055/082 055/084 056/086 056/076
    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    12/T
LVM 043/076 041/077 048/078 049/080 048/082 051/084 051/073
    00/U    00/U    22/T    21/B    11/U    02/T    22/T
HDN 050/076 045/078 052/078 052/082 052/086 054/088 054/080
    00/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/U
MLS 052/073 045/076 052/080 055/080 054/085 055/087 055/080
    00/U    00/U    02/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 051/076 046/076 053/079 054/079 052/084 054/086 054/080
    00/N    00/U    13/T    32/T    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 051/071 040/073 047/078 051/075 050/081 052/083 052/079
    00/N    00/U    02/T    22/T    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 049/074 046/077 051/076 049/078 049/082 052/084 052/077
    00/U    00/U    24/T    42/T    10/U    01/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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