Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300844
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SOME MOMENTUM FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90S TODAY AND THE MID 90S ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED SUNSHINE.
BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE OVERALL MESSAGE IN THE LONG TERM IS WARM AND TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY BACKING FLOW ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL CAUSE RISING TEMPERATURES
AND ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO BECOME A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TIMING ENERGY
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SHIFTING THE HOT UPPER RIDGE EAST AND OPENING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY BEFORE ALLOWING ENERGY BACK INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER MOVING IT OUT. AT ANY
RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMING WITH A RETURN TO
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKING OVER. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS OVER THE EAST.
TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/093 060/096 063/096 064/096 064/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 088 052/090 053/094 054/094 056/091 056/089 054/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/B    13/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 091 056/095 058/098 062/097 063/099 063/094 061/094
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 090 058/095 060/098 062/097 065/096 066/093 064/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 091 056/094 058/097 060/097 061/096 063/092 063/092
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 055/091 058/094 057/095 059/091 062/090 060/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 088 053/091 054/093 055/094 057/094 058/091 057/089
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.