Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 241529
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
929 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

WE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAP
SIMULATIONS...WHICH MAINLY MEANT INCREASING POPS TO 100 PERCENT IN
THE SHERIDAN AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHERE MODERATE RAIN IS OCCURRING
ALREADY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL FILL IN OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MT BY AFTERNOON TOO AS FORCING ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHWEST OUT OF SD.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OCCASIONAL OR SCATTERED IN NATURE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST LIKE IN BILLINGS TODAY...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGHS A BIT IN SPOTS WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST TODAY. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN COLORADO ON ITS SLOW AND
STEADY PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POSITION OF THIS LOW
HAS KEPT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS
TRANSPORTING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO MONTANA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 50S NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE RISEN TO OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
MOST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EASY CLOUD COVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL BACK IN TODAY. THE COLORADO LOW WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND WRAP ENERGY AROUND INTO
MONTANA. INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT WITH HIGH PWATS...THERE
WILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM BUT ALSO PROVIDE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE SHOWERS THAT FORM. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
POINTING TO THIS AREA FOR HIGHEST QPF.

THE LOW FILLS AND SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY. IT HAD
BEEN LOOKING LIKE A RIDGE WOULD SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY...BUT A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN
LOW HAS TAKEN THAT SOLUTION OUT OF THE PICTURE. LINGERING ENERGY
AND MOISTURE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS AND PWATS OVER THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HAVE COOLED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MONDAY DAY AS EXPECTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSTANT. A LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEATHER FOR
THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL PLACE THE AREA IN UNSETTLED...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVING THE AREA A CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
AS A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...WHICH
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF COOL
DOWN WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 045/068 049/072 049/071 049/068 047/067 047/071
    6/T 42/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 059 039/070 045/068 044/066 043/066 043/067 042/069
    5/T 43/T    36/T    54/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 062 045/069 046/075 049/074 048/070 047/069 045/072
    6/T 43/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 064 047/068 048/075 051/074 050/070 048/068 046/069
    7/T 54/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    22/T
4BQ 058 046/066 044/073 049/073 049/069 048/066 046/067
    +/T 64/T    22/T    34/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 061 045/066 046/071 047/070 048/068 044/064 042/065
    6/T 75/T    32/T    34/T    44/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 054 043/064 044/070 045/069 045/066 044/065 042/067
    +/T 64/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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