Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 021547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO LOWER CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY. MODELS OVERDOING THE CIRRUS THIS MORNING OVER SE MT THIS
MORNING SO DROPPED THAT AREA DOWN TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MAY BRING A BIT OF
ELEVATED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK AHEAD. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...SO EXPECTING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE MIXING UP
TO 750-700 MB TODAY AND TO AROUND 700 MB ON TUE. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND ZERO DEGREES C TODAY AND AROUND +4
DEGREES TUE. A SHORTWAVE SEEN MOVING S OUT OF SW MANITOBA ON WATER
VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA
TODAY. SO BASED ON THE ABOVE...WENT A LITTLE BELOW SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD BE FROM THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. MODELS AGREED THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
S...REACHING SD/NE BY 00Z TONIGHT. THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY...AND BECAUSE THE FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
AREA...HAVE KEPT A LOW POP IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT SO
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY. WENT BELOW SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AGAIN ON TUE
WHEN SOUNDINGS MIXED TO AROUND 700 MB. THIS PUT READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...


UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY AND AS IT
SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE THAT WORKS
ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT IS DIMINISHING A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

FRIDAY AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ALLOWS SLOW ALOFT TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH CANADA ALLOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. FRIDAY IS DEFINITELY MUCH COOLER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT DURATION AND AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE LOOKS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS SCENARIOS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN WRAPPING UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN LOW ON
SATURDAY WHICH IS LOOKING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WYOMING SEEING
MUCH BETTER CHANCES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF ALLOWING AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE OF A DRY WESTERLY FLOW. EITHER WAY DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COOL AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IF ANY OCCURS. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...


MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
20KT. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 044/075 048/082 050/083 054/070 046/062 044/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    13/T    55/W    43/W
LVM 069 038/075 041/079 045/079 045/069 043/060 039/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    01/B    14/T    55/W    43/W
HDN 069 038/075 042/083 044/085 046/073 042/064 041/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    13/T    55/W    43/W
MLS 071 044/076 048/082 050/086 054/078 049/067 045/067
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    44/W    22/W
4BQ 067 040/073 043/082 046/087 049/080 046/064 043/064
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    55/W    43/W
BHK 068 040/074 043/079 046/084 049/080 047/065 042/064
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    02/T    33/W    22/W
SHR 064 036/071 039/078 041/081 044/073 041/059 038/061
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    13/T    66/W    54/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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