Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 171447
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
847 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows northerly flow aloft bringing some high
cloudiness thru the region this morning, while surface analysis
has a 1030+mb surface high dropping from southern SK into
northeast MT. There is also a band of lower clouds (bases of
4.5-6.5kft agl) from Roundup to Billings and Sheridan...and this
cloud cover will likely hold temps back for awhile as move thru
the morning hours. We won`t see any precip today and cloud cover
will become more scattered over time, as flow aloft becomes
increasingly anticyclonic. Look for highs in the upper 30s far
east (influence from cooler Canadian air) to mid 50s central and
west. Have adjusted cloud cover and winds a bit, but forecast is
in good shape. JKL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night...

Northerly flow aloft over Montana into southern Canada, with a
strong upper ridge over British Columbia. This flow sent a weak
cold front through eastern zones Saturday afternoon and evening,
which will result in a cooler day today. Western and central zones
have gotten a glancing blow from the cold air intrusion, so highs
will end up similar today compared to Saturday. Mixing winds will
be lighter compared to the last couple of days, so not expecting
much in the way of winds today (strongest east (10-20mph)). Focus
then turns to Monday for potential grass fire danger concerns.

The upper ridge of BC will get suppressed to the south, with the
center of the high dropping to northern California and northern
Nevada by Sunday evening. This will back flow to the northwest
aloft, increasing as this happens. Mixing winds will increase to
around 22kts at Billings and around 26kts at Miles City and
Baker. This would lead to gusts of 25-35mph (strongest east).
Surface winds will turn to the northwest as a cold front slides
across. Mixing will lead to warming temperatures into the mid 60s
to lower 70s (warmest over central zones). NBM probabilities of
hitting 70 degrees in Billings on Monday was 90%, which will be
near record values. Dewpoints will drop into the mid to upper 20s,
placing humidity levels in the lower to mid 20s in the afternoon.
This will need to be watched closely, as models often times
underestimate the falling of dewpoint temperatures behind a cold
frontal passage which could lead to lower humidity. Will let the
day crew take another look at Monday to decide if it falls more in
the Red Flag criteria day (at the moment it fall outside of this)
or more of a Rangeland Fire Danger situation (a step softer than
a Red Flag day but still a concern for dry grassland). TWH

Tuesday through Sunday...

Tuesday will be a warm and dry day due to the upper level ridge
over the region. Then, a pattern change towards cooler and wetter
will begin mid to late week. There is still uncertainty between
the models for the timing and impacts. Some model solutions bring
brief ridging over the region Thursday into Friday, which would
affect temperatures and precipitation amounts.

Currently, there is a 20-30% chance of precip beginning over the
north and west Wednesday afternoon and increasing to a 40-60%
chance each day for Thursday through Sunday. Currently for lower
elevations, there is a 20-50% chance, highest over the west, of
2"+ of snow through Friday. Then, there is a 30-60% chance,
highest again over the west, of another 2"+ of snow for Saturday
through Sunday. For the mountains, the Beartooth/Absarokas are
expected to see the most snow, with a 20-40% chance over the
highest peaks of 12"+ Thursday through Friday and a 30-50% chance
of the same Saturday through Sunday.

High temps will decrease through the weekend, starting in the 60s
(50s over the east) on Tuesday and reaching 30s to low 40s by the
weekend. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours under northerly
flow aloft. Wind gusts near KBHK and KSHR will briefly increase
up to 20 kts this afternoon into evening. Westerly wind gusts to
25 kts will develop along the western foothills late tonight. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 034/070 036/066 034/055 034/049 028/043 025/040
    0/B 00/N    00/U    11/B    45/O    65/S    56/S
LVM 057 034/063 035/062 034/059 036/052 032/048 028/042
    0/B 00/U    00/U    01/B    45/O    55/O    66/S
HDN 053 029/071 032/066 031/055 031/049 027/045 023/044
    0/B 00/U    00/U    11/B    55/O    65/O    55/S
MLS 044 026/065 031/057 027/042 026/040 022/037 019/034
    0/B 00/N    00/U    12/S    53/S    44/S    44/S
4BQ 045 026/067 032/064 031/052 031/047 026/044 023/042
    0/B 00/N    00/U    01/B    32/O    43/S    43/S
BHK 037 020/061 027/053 021/037 020/038 017/036 015/031
    0/B 00/N    00/U    02/S    53/S    43/S    44/S
SHR 052 028/067 033/065 030/058 031/051 025/048 023/049
    0/B 00/N    00/U    00/U    34/R    53/O    43/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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