Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 251632
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MILD DAY IN STORE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE TRENDING UPWARD IN GAP FLOW AREAS AND WILL
LIKELY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO UPDATES.
BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

TODAY A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AS A RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT THIS WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. GOING THROUGH THE
DAY NOT MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINLY
BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS.

THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER WIND DAY AROUND THE FOOTHILLS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST AT 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN...THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND SOME AREAS WILL APPROACH 60 FOR HIGHS. BILLINGS MAY SEE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS THE FORECAST IS TWO DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE
RECORD. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

STRONG RIDGE FROM THE WEEKEND WILL BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS TWO
DISTURBANCES...ONE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST
CROSS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IN FROM CALIFORNIA AND SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
SHOWERS. MODELS STICK WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT THIS DISTURBANCE
LOOKS DRY.

MAIN CHANGE WITH THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS WAS TO REALLY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF DROPPED THE IDEA OF A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED
WEST COAST RIDGE THAT WOULD HAVE OPENED THE DOOR FOR SEVERAL WAVES
OF ARCTIC AIR. NOW THE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO ONE WITH A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WITH SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
FEED...BUT ALSO DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH CUT OFF THE COLD SURGES OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL A BIT OF COLD AIR FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND THERE IS VERY COLD AIR STILL SITUATED NOT THAT FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. BUT
TRENDED FORECAST WARMER WITH THIS PACKAGE AND KEPT SOME LOW POPS
IN FOR THE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FETCH THE MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED.
CHAMBERS


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
TODAY. GUSTS AROUND 55 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE KLVM AREA AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 040/057 037/058 038/050 028/044 026/041 024/039
    1/N 00/N    00/U    12/W    11/U    01/B    22/O
LVM 057 039/061 036/057 035/048 027/044 025/043 022/041
    1/N 00/N    00/U    22/W    10/B    11/B    12/O
HDN 048 030/051 028/054 034/047 025/043 023/040 021/037
    1/B 00/B    00/U    02/W    11/B    01/B    22/S
MLS 047 033/051 031/053 034/044 025/041 024/038 019/033
    1/B 00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    01/B    22/S
4BQ 050 034/055 030/056 033/047 025/043 023/040 020/036
    1/B 00/U    00/U    01/B    11/U    01/B    22/S
BHK 045 033/050 030/054 033/042 024/038 022/035 014/027
    1/B 00/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    01/B    22/S
SHR 051 033/057 028/057 031/045 022/041 019/038 018/035
    1/B 00/U    00/U    12/W    11/U    11/B    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONES
      41-65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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