Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081011
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
311 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST PLACES
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL MEAN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
AFTERNOONS IN SOME AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS AS THE
ORIENTATION LOOKS A LITTLE TO NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED. SO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME IN THE SHORT TERM TIME
FRAME.

THERE IS A PROGGED MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING THE NORTHERLY JET
STREAM OVER THE DAKOTA PLAINS THAT WILL BRUSH OUR EASTERN BORDER
TUESDAY. THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS AROUND THE
BAKER VICINITY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW IMPACT AT BEST. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED W OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. BOTH
MODELS BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO E MT THU NIGHT WITH SOME
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING LOW POPS OVER THE NE ZONES. THIS MOISTURE
DRIES OUT OR MOVES E OF THE AREA ON FRI. OTHERWISE...THE AIRMASS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRI. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL
W WED THROUGH WED NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE THROUGH THE
AREA...SETTING UP A DECENT GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE ID.
WHILE 700 MB WINDS SUPPORTED A POSSIBLE GAP WIND EVENT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION WAS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WINDS
AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS IN
CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE EVENTUALLY NEEDED. LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM KBIL W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI WITH
THE WARMEST DAY BEING WED WHERE READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
60S IN CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON THE ECMWF ON SAT WHILE THE
WAVE IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND
DRY. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THE ECMWF SAT NIGHT WITH
TRAILING VORTICITY BEHIND IT ON SUN. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. LEFT LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS OVER THE E ON SUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA ON SUN THAN THE GFS. A BLEND OF TEMPERATURES STILL LEFT
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE IN
IT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SUPPORTING MOUNTAIN
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S ON MON.
ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER KLVM TODAY. ARTHUR
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 034/056 035/061 038/057 036/056 037/058 034/052
    0/N 00/U    00/N    00/N    10/B    11/B    22/W
LVM 050 034/055 035/053 034/051 034/051 035/050 033/046
    0/N 00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N    21/N
HDN 050 028/056 029/059 031/055 029/053 029/055 028/051
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
MLS 044 029/050 028/054 031/050 030/048 030/051 030/049
    0/B 01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    11/B    21/N
4BQ 044 030/053 029/056 030/052 029/051 029/052 030/048
    0/B 11/B    10/U    00/B    11/B    01/U    22/W
BHK 040 026/044 024/050 027/045 028/043 026/044 026/045
    0/B 22/W    20/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    21/N
SHR 045 028/050 024/057 028/052 028/052 027/053 027/047
    0/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    10/U    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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