Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271507
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. MAIN FOCUS IN OUR
FORECAST PROCESS TODAY WILL BE ON TOMORROW WITH WINDY TROUGH
PASSAGE. WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
OUR FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

ALL EYES ON AN ACTIVE SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BOTH HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT SO FAVORING
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON
AREAS...PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST MT BY EARLY
EVENING. GOOD PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 70S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS WITH WIND SHIFT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH REMAINING CONCERNS FOR DRY/DEAD GRASSES ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS THREAT FOR
ENTIRE AREA BELOW ABOUT 7000FT.

HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FROM HARLOWTON/BIG TIMBER
EAST TOWARD A ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WY LINE. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS
COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH ALWAYS FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
SHOWERS MIX HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

FRIEDERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. MODELS REMAIN DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR...THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN ENERGY. THE GFS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH REMAIN
SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY A SECOND QUICK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. AS A LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SO HAVE NOT
MADE MUCH IN THE LINE OF CHANGES. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...


EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEER AT ALL LOCATIONS BUT LIVINGSTON TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MID MORNING WHEN THE WIND SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ABSAROKA AND BIGHORNS
THROUGH MID MORNING. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 049/072 040/066 042/068 045/066 038/058 036/053
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    13/W
LVM 072 046/066 035/064 039/066 041/062 032/054 029/050
    0/N 04/W    10/B    10/U    03/W    22/W    23/W
HDN 075 046/076 037/067 037/070 039/070 036/060 033/056
    0/B 04/W    20/B    00/U    03/W    32/W    12/W
MLS 070 045/076 037/065 039/068 040/071 038/058 033/055
    0/B 04/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    22/W    12/W
4BQ 071 043/080 036/065 037/068 040/072 036/058 032/055
    0/B 02/W    30/B    00/U    02/W    21/N    12/W
BHK 065 041/075 035/062 035/065 038/070 036/055 030/053
    0/B 03/W    31/B    00/B    02/W    22/W    12/W
SHR 071 043/078 036/064 035/067 038/070 034/056 031/051
    0/B 02/W    30/U    00/U    02/W    32/W    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES
      28>42-56>58-63>68.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28>30-34-35-38-41-42-57-63.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR ZONES 98-99.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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