Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 260337
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
837 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING FROM BILLINGS SOUTH AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER
MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AS LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HRRR IS INDICATING FOG POSSIBLE IN
SHERIDAN WYOMING AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO EKALAKA OVERNIGHT.
DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES. DRIER
AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPING
ANYWHERE ELSE TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE. RICHMOND

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AS FORCING SINKS SOUTH. KBLX RADAR
STILL SHOWING SOME RETURNS SOUTH OF BILLINGS FROM FORT SMITH TO
SHERIDAN. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING IN THESE LOCATIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION AS SHERIDAN WAS ONLY AT 3 MILES
REDUCTION IN LIGHT SNOW. WILL DROP ALL HIGHLIGHTS.

WEAK UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WERE NOT GREAT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WERE SHOWING A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HANGING ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT ONCE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. CLOUDS WERE SHOWING SIGNS
OF BREAKING UP AS CLOUD TOPS WARM. LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND FAIRLY
WET SNOWFALL MAY LEAD TO PATCH FOG FORMING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SO ADDED TO THE GRIDS. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. WEAK ENERGY MOVES DOWN AND PROVIDES SOME
WEAK QG FORCING SO KEPT LOW POPS IN PLACE. FLOW BACKS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS STRONG ENERGY DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND PRODUCE INCREASING
WINDS FOR LIVINGSTON. BUMPED WINDS UP QUITE A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. FORCING ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS. THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SET THE
STAGE FOR AN ARCTIC PUSH FOR SUNDAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE EXTENDED HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. SUNDAY IS STILL LOOKING GOOD
FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOWFALL. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH
WINDS. THIS IS GOING BE A GOOD SETUP FOR ANOTHER UPSLOPE SNOW
EVENT. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN THIS PAST SYSTEM...SNOW
RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER. WHILE QPF IS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER...SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT. DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL QPF ARE SMALL...SO HAVE NOT CHANGE QPF OR SNOW
AMOUNTS MUCH.

GOING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE COLD.
PER THE MODEL DISCUSSION FROM WPC...HAVE WEIGHTED TEMPERATURES A
BIT MORE TO THE EC TEMPERATURES. DID NOT GO FULLY THAT DIRECTIONS
AS THE RAW GUIDANCE WAS GOING FOR TWENTIES BELOW FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON THE GROUND...SO THAT WILL HAVE
TO MONITORED GOING FORWARD. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY
BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND KSHR AND KBIL. THE
SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO SOME
CLOUDINESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOW LYING AREAS MAY
SEE SOME FOGGY CONDITIONS BY MORNING...MOST NOTABLY EASTERN
TERMINALS. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 008/025 009/026 016/022 901/003 915/006 901/025 014/027
    21/B    11/B    36/J    53/J    21/B    11/N    11/B
LVM 000/025 002/026 014/024 905/006 913/010 002/025 014/030
    11/B    12/S    46/J    42/J    11/B    11/B    11/B
HDN 006/026 004/026 014/024 000/005 916/005 903/023 014/027
    22/S    11/B    25/J    53/J    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 012/026 011/028 017/021 000/005 908/006 001/023 015/026
    12/S    11/B    25/J    42/J    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 009/024 007/026 013/024 000/005 912/002 903/022 013/027
    22/S    10/B    14/J    53/J    11/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 009/022 010/026 013/018 904/001 908/003 902/020 012/024
    11/B    11/B    14/J    32/J    11/B    11/B    11/E
SHR 000/022 902/025 010/024 000/007 913/010 903/026 014/030
    51/B    10/B    15/J    63/J    21/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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