Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 290221
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
821 PM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Precipitation continues to diminish across the western portion of
the forecast area this evening. Have cancelled all winter weather
highlites with this update. Overnight concern will be patchy fog
and icy spots developing on roadways, especially in the foothills,
causing some travel difficulties going into Saturday morning.
Otherwise just a mostly cloudy and calm night expected across the
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...
Upper low has sunk south to the four corners region. Resulting
circulations has pushed the bulk of rain and snow a little
further west with the hardest hit area currently southern
Yellowstone County into the north facing slopes of the Beartooths.
A good portion of this is mainly rain, but snow or mixed precip is
still being reported at higher elevations from Red Lodge on up.
The inverted surface trough and upper support will continue to
weaken through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening. Cloud tops confirm this with warming cloud tops in the
more convective looking areas. Precipitation should pretty much be
done by midnight. The question then is the occurrence of fog.
Despite dewpoint depressions being rather narrow, models and
satellite information do not suggest much clearing overnight in
regions where most of the precipitation has fallen in the last day
or two. Will add patchy fog to many locations from Sheridan to
Billings and back into the Beartooth foothills, but at this time
suspect mainly stratus rather than fog may be end result by
morning. Future shifts will continue to monitor and analyze.
Saturday...the southern stream trough is too far south to impact
us, but the northern stream will have a weak trough axis shift
though north central Montana. Therefore, a few showers may pop up
through the day, mainly from the Snowies to the Crazies.
More shortwave energy in the northern stream tracks out of Canada
and into Montana Sunday. We will see some warming ahead of the
associated front with temps trying to push seasonal norms. Then it
looks like a wet front sweeps through the CWA in the evening. BT
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
The work week will begin with below average temperatures in the
50s and above normal chances for afternoon showers. As we move
towards the middle and end of next week, conditions will begin to
warm as there is good agreement in a ridge of high pressure
building across the region.
Mid and upper level flow will be out of the northwest on Monday
and Tuesday. The flow will also be unstable so expect scattered
showers to develop in the afternoon hours, especially on Tuesday
afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be rain but small hail
is definitely possible given the cold mid-level temperatures.
The mountains will see snow in any precipitation that forms.
The ridge of high pressure begins to move in Wednesday which
should help to cut off most of the precipitation chances across
the region. Winds will also turn westerly which will aid in
producing warm conditions across the region. The warmest day of
next week will be Thursday or Friday ahead of a cold front. The
main forecast concern for next week will be small rises on area
rivers late next week as warmer mid-level temperatures help to
melt out some snow across the mountain foothills. Right now
flooding is not anticipated but small river rises could cause
minor issues along area banks so be sure to stay up to date with
the forecast as we get closer. Temperatures will generally be in
the mid 70s by Thursday afternoon. Dobbs
Mostly VFR conditions over the region right now except along
mountain foothills locations such as KSHR and KLVM. Expect
IFR/MVFR conditions and frequent mountain obscurations in those
locations to improve to VFR through the evening as upslope flow
lessens and snow showers diminish. Main forecast concern overnight
is the possible development of fog, especially near terminals
where significant precipitation fell such as KBIL and KSHR.
Currently have VCFG in the TAF due to little confidence but the
development of a low IFR/LIFR stratus deck is also possible
tonight at KBIL/KSHR. Dobbs
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
BIL 034/055 037/061 041/057 039/054 038/063 044/073 046/068
21/B 03/W 52/W 34/W 21/B 10/U 11/B
LVM 026/053 034/058 035/054 034/054 033/062 038/070 042/065
31/B 14/W 42/W 34/W 21/B 11/U 11/B
HDN 034/057 034/064 040/059 038/056 037/064 041/073 044/071
11/B 03/W 53/W 24/W 21/B 01/B 11/U
MLS 036/060 036/064 042/059 039/057 038/063 043/072 047/069
01/B 01/B 43/W 12/W 21/B 00/B 10/U
4BQ 031/057 031/063 040/056 037/055 036/061 041/071 044/070
00/B 00/U 43/W 12/W 22/W 00/B 10/U
BHK 029/057 030/061 037/056 035/054 033/059 038/066 041/065
00/B 00/U 44/W 12/W 11/B 00/B 10/U
SHR 026/048 027/055 037/052 035/049 034/058 037/067 039/067
21/B 11/B 53/W 24/W 21/B 00/U 11/U