Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 250240
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
840 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Updates to precipitation chances tonight. Water Vapor imagery
showing two features bringing sensible weather to the area this
evening. A disturbance moving slowly eastward along the western
MT/WY state line has produced up to two tenths of rain in the
Beartooth foothills, and a reinforcing upper disturbance/surface
cold front moving into northeast zones from the main upper low
over south central Canada. Latest HRRR showing isolated light
shower activity to persist through midnight over areas south of a
Harlowton to Billings to Broadus line, before shifting further
southeast overnight, but currently not doing much with the weak
frontal passage over eastern areas. As a result have added low
pops into the forecast for southern and western areas, though any
accumulation will be light. Above 9000 feet there will be a
dusting of snow tonight, and western valleys and foothills will
see a chilly start to the day Thursday. Expect precipitation to be
out of the area by the time kids head off to the first day of
school (for Billings). Temperatures early tomorrow will range from
about 35 in the western valleys to the mid/upper 40s central and
eastern areas. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

An upper low centered over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba
continued to keep the area under cyclonic flow aloft this
afternoon, with upslope flow at the surface. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms had developed over the southwest
mountains and foothills as well as over the Big Horn Mountains.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening,
gradually decreasing overnight. Gusty north to northwest winds
will steadily decrease through the evening and overnight. Snow
levels will fall overnight, and some snow is possible above 9,000
feet. Little in the way of accumulations are expected.

Below normal temperatures will continue into Thursday as the
region remains underneath a trough. Highs are expected to be in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be
possible once again over the mountains and foothills, mainly
across southern areas. Winds will be much lighter than Wednesday.
The below normal temperatures and shower and thunderstorm chances
look to continue into Friday as energy rotating around the base of
the trough moves through the area. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

The long term period will begin with a quick warmup on Saturday
with temperatures reaching the mid 80s as the upper level flow
turns more westerly. Conditions will be dry as well with little
moisture in the region. As we move through the beginning of next
week, conditions will remain warm as the upper level flow turns
southwesterly. With little to no monsoonal moisture forecast
through the extended, and most disturbances passing to our north,
expect dry conditions to remain through at least Tuesday. Temperatures
look to be the hottest on Sunday with temperatures around 90. As
a few disturbances pass to the north of us, we should cool down
slightly back into the middle 80s by Tuesday.

The main theme of the extended will be warm and dry weather which
will likely increase fire concerns through the beginning of next
week. Relative humidities will be in the teens most afternoons. By
the middle of next week more moisture could move in, increasing
rain chances. Dobbs

&&

.AVIATION...

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy for the remainder of the
evening and overnight hours. The gusty winds are expected to
decrease shortly after sunset. A few showers resulting in low
ceilings and mvfr conditions will be possible along and west of a
KSHR to KBIL line through 06z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the night. However, the mountains and adjacent
foothills may be obscured at times throughout the night. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/070 050/073 050/084 056/090 057/087 058/086 056/084
    21/B    13/T    21/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 039/068 041/071 043/083 049/089 049/087 049/086 047/083
    21/B    13/T    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 044/073 048/076 047/085 054/091 054/089 055/088 055/087
    21/B    13/T    31/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 046/073 051/076 051/084 056/092 058/090 058/088 057/085
    11/B    13/T    31/U    00/U    11/U    22/T    21/B
4BQ 044/070 049/072 049/082 055/090 057/090 058/089 056/086
    21/B    23/T    31/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 044/070 047/072 048/079 052/087 055/087 056/087 055/083
    11/B    13/T    31/U    10/U    11/U    12/T    21/B
SHR 043/069 045/071 045/081 051/089 052/088 054/088 053/086
    22/T    23/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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