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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 151448
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...

SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY. CURRENT
FORECAST AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES THIS
MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

THE GREAT NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE VERY
PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND AHEAD. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ZONAL BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR WINDS MAINLY WESTERLY TODAY...HOWEVER MUCH LIGHTER
THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED.
DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING TODAY...700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE...WITH +3 TO +7 C EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS WELL...COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THUS HAVE KEPT MIN TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. IN FACT LOWERED LIVINGSTONS MIN TEMP INTO THE
30S BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CALM...CLEAR NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF. THE MAJOR CHANGE HERE WAS TO
DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BACK A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL COME IN AT THE RIGHT TIME OF
DAY TO CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE DEGREES...THUS HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MODELS ARE HINTING THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE THIS
COULD END UP BEING JUST A WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS FIELD...FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH MERIT TO WARRANT 20/30 POPS. CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS FOR RIDGING ON MONDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD WHERE AN UPPER LOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST CLOSES OFF AND MOVES INLAND BRINGING A
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE EACH DAY AND THIS ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MIXING...WHICH
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
AREA. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE PLAINS TO BEGIN
PULLING SOME MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA BUT THIS WILL BE COMBATING
SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT BEING BROUGHT IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS WOULD BE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THIS WEATHER PATTERN...SO WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO GET.

WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS INLAND SWITCH
THE FAVORED ZONE FOR RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.
STILL...PATTERN RECOGNITION STILL LOOKS CONVECTIVE AND WITH SOIL
AND VEGETATION MOISTURE AT AN ANNUAL MAXIMUM...SOME THUNDER MAY
HAVE A WAY TO EVOLVE. WAS CONSERVATIVE AND KEPT ISOLATED POPS EVEN
THOUGH THE PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS DRIER. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND NO HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 049/077 052/080 055/085 052/086 055/073 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/U    12/W    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 076 039/078 045/081 046/084 049/083 051/070 041/072
    0/U 01/U    11/U    22/W    23/T    32/T    23/T
HDN 078 049/079 051/080 056/088 052/090 056/075 047/075
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/W    22/T    22/T    32/T
MLS 077 052/078 053/078 055/086 057/087 058/077 050/075
    0/U 00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    23/T
4BQ 077 049/079 051/079 055/087 055/089 058/078 047/076
    0/U 01/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    32/T
BHK 074 048/074 049/075 054/083 058/082 058/076 047/075
    0/U 01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    33/T
SHR 076 044/076 049/079 053/085 050/087 053/075 044/074
    0/U 01/U    12/T    23/W    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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