Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 221534
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP AROUND THE PRYORS AND BIG HORNS THIS
MORNING AS SOME WEAK IMPULSES/MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF LARGE TROUGH TO THE WEST. ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THESE. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. PACIFIC FRONT TONIGHT MAY HAVE A GOOD PUNCH TO IT
WITH SHOWERS...SOME THUNDER...AND STRONG WINDS. WIND WILL ALSO BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WE WILL CONTEMPLATE IF WE
NEED ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR TOMORROW. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS GUSTING 30 TO
50 MPH EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BREAK DOWN BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WARM AND DRY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS WELL INTO THE 70S. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO
BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOWER 80S THAT SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT IF A BROADER BREAK IN CLOUDS DEVELOPS ITS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. STRONG PVA SPREADS INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING ADDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TO GO WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR FORCING. THESE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EASTWARD REACHING BILLING
LATE IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING THROUGH FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 4
TO 6KFT SO HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH STORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 50 MPH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 50
MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. ANOTHER STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE TROF FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINES WITH LINGERING FRONTOGENESIS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS MODELS ARE AGREEING ON A COLD AND WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SNOW IS PART OF THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND THURSDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ROTATING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BRINING DECREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE. ALSO WILL SEE
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

FRIDAY SHORT LIVED RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL YIELD TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS OVER WYOMING AND
CAUSES A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING TOO WARM BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK
MAINLY DRY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS BUILDING
IN SOUTH OF THE AREA DEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MONTANA NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION...PRECIPITATION HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY
LATE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MODELS DEEPEN A WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AT
THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT STRENGTHENS THE PROCESSES STARTED
ON SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THE COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE LIFT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF STAYING SNOW ON SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADDED SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
COULD STAY IN THE COLD AND WET. WESTERN AREAS WILL START SEEING A
DRYING TREND. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AS BROAD
RIDGING HEADS INTO THE WEST. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS AROUND KLVM AROUND 21Z SPREADING EAST TO KBIL BY 03Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE INTENSE AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND
SMALL HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR ANY STORMS. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 044/055 037/060 036/059 038/049 035/043 031/052
    2/T 62/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    54/W    32/W
LVM 070 037/049 034/060 035/061 035/049 034/049 029/056
    4/T 63/W    43/W    23/W    45/W    54/W    22/W
HDN 077 045/058 035/060 033/061 037/055 034/045 030/052
    2/T 52/W    43/W    22/W    44/W    65/W    32/W
MLS 076 048/059 037/059 032/055 035/044 033/041 028/049
    1/B 43/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    76/W    43/W
4BQ 077 050/059 035/059 032/056 034/051 032/046 028/050
    1/B 33/W    33/W    11/B    45/W    66/W    43/W
BHK 071 049/059 035/056 029/050 031/042 028/038 025/045
    1/N 33/W    22/W    11/B    45/W    66/J    43/W
SHR 075 043/054 032/058 033/061 036/059 036/046 032/051
    1/B 33/W    33/W    22/W    43/W    65/W    43/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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