Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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465
FXUS65 KBYZ 290127
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
727 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING THIS EVENING AS WE
APPROACH SUNSET AND LOSE WHAT LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING WE HAD. MAIN
BAND OF LIGHT PCPN AS OF 720 PM IS FROM NEAR MILES CITY TO NORTH
OF GREAT FALLS...IE ONLY A SMALL PART OF OUR CWA...AS WEAK
EASTERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONFINED TO THIS REGION. DESCENT HAS
OVERTAKEN MOST OF OUR REGION WITH WEAK CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MT...AND MAIN WESTERN CONUS LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. SHALLOW INSTABILITY DOES EXIST IN OUR CWA HOWEVER...
EXTENDING TO ONLY ABOUT 700MB...AND THIS ALONG WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST A RISK OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THRU THE NIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG AND WILL KEEP PATCHY WORDING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

THE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BUT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
IN RESPONSE TO A STUBBORN UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER
THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER TODAY. A VERY COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK AND
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND EAST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA WHERE LIVINGSTON AND BAKER ARE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH
AREAS IN BETWEEN ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WELL LATELY
BUT THEY DO SHOW THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY MID EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRECIP CHANCES GOING FROM HIGHER CHANCES THIS EVENING TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG SO THIS
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY...A LARGE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
ENTIRE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER
COLORADO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. DYNAMICS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO STAY MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF MONTANA FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SHOWER
CHANCE FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ROTATING SOME ENERGY NORTHWEST
INTO WYOMING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING BUT MODELS DO
BRING THE NORTHERN EDGE AS FAR NORTH AS THE MONTANA/WYOMING
BORDER. SO AFTER A BREAK FOR THE MOST PART IN THE PRECIP
FRIDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-EKALAKA LINE.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LOWER TO POSSIBLY MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS A REX BLOCK
KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS THEN FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG
THE OMEGA BLOCK TO SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STP
&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS THE BEST FORCING LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION PROVIDING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GILSTAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/052 035/054 037/059 037/065 041/071 044/074 046/073
    22/W    23/W    22/W    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 028/052 032/054 034/056 032/065 037/073 039/073 041/074
    23/W    33/W    32/W    10/U    10/U    00/U    11/B
HDN 030/054 036/054 035/060 035/066 037/071 040/075 041/073
    22/W    24/W    22/W    11/U    11/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 033/054 038/056 038/062 038/068 041/071 045/074 045/072
    22/W    12/W    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 031/050 035/051 034/059 034/065 039/070 040/073 042/071
    22/W    34/W    21/B    11/U    10/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 031/051 035/056 034/060 035/065 038/069 040/070 040/069
    21/E    22/W    11/U    00/U    10/U    01/U    11/U
SHR 029/052 034/051 031/054 032/061 035/067 037/070 038/071
    22/W    37/W    42/W    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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