Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280900
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
300 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

A DRY ZONAL FLOW OF AIR WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND WILL DRAG A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLUMBUS WESTWARD. A DEEPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN Q VECTOR
FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SETS UP
AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS AND LOW
LEVELS BEING CAPPED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
OVERALL...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE WILL MOVE IN TO START THE
PERIOD...AND THE NEXT WIL MOVE IN TO END THE PERIOD.

THE FIRST TROF BRINGS UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION
CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING SATURDAY. IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD
TRUE...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NUMBERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX...WITH BEST POTENTIAL IN THE
EAST. FRONT TIMING IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
BARE WATCHING IN LATER SHIFTS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION
OF STRONG OR SEVERE IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TROF MAKES THE
TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...AS
SHOULD BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE PATTERN DRIES OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
TROF BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AND
MODEL TIMING IS A LITTLE OFF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WEST AND SEASONAL TEMPS EAST OR
HIGHER. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AAG
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL ROUTES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AREA
MOUNTAINS...NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KBIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS EVENING...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 059/080 057/075 054/071 048/073 050/079 051/084
    0/U 32/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
LVM 085 051/081 052/073 046/068 043/071 044/079 045/083
    0/U 32/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
HDN 088 058/083 057/079 054/073 050/075 051/081 052/086
    0/U 22/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 088 060/080 059/080 056/073 051/075 052/080 054/084
    0/U 23/T    14/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    12/T
4BQ 087 059/083 058/084 055/072 050/074 051/081 053/087
    0/U 13/T    13/T    32/T    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 085 057/078 056/080 054/071 048/072 050/078 050/084
    0/U 14/T    14/T    43/T    22/T    21/B    12/T
SHR 084 055/080 054/081 051/070 046/072 047/080 048/087
    0/U 13/T    14/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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