Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 132130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
230 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Quiet weather can be expected through the weekend as the area will
be situated under somewhat of a split flow aloft with ridging
over the West and an upper low over the Desert Southwest. This
will bring dry conditions to the region. Localized
blowing/drifting snow will remain possible for areas west of
Billings tonight with west to southwest winds of 15 to 35 mph

Temperatures will gradually warm through the weekend with 20s to
30s for highs. Warmest temperatures can be expected along the
foothills locations with surface pressure gradients supporting
downslope winds. Temperature forecast remains challenging with
snowpack and local drainage effects. Continue to undercut guidance
by as much as 10 degrees in some locations. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

No significant changes made to the long range forecast for this
package. Warmer temperatures seem likely with Wednesday being the
warmest. We will continue to undercut guidance for most locations
due to snow pack and local drainage effects, but would not be
surprised if we do actually see a 50 degree reading (such as
guidance suggests) or two based on downslope and progged 850 MB
temps of 10-12 C in our CWA.

Main weather impacts for next week include gap wind, possible
flooding from ice jam issues. It is still unclear how the warmer
temperatures will have an effect on ice jam flooding due to many
other related factors. It is not climatologically typical for
significant ice jam floods in January (due to cold overnight
temps), but we will continue messaging and monitor conditions
closely next week. We do feel it will take until about Thursday to
see any impacts.

As for wind, favorable gradient sets up for gap flow areas Monday
night and looks to continue through Wednesday night as strong
zonal flow overtakes our region. Gusts to 60 mph are possible
during this time frame at both Livingston and Nye. Confidence
fairly high right now for this scenario.

Proggs indicate weather pattern will turn unsettled by Thursday
as broad scaled troughiness takes over the western CONUS. Main
area of forcing is progged to go south through the Great Basin,
but series of weaker waves with Pacific moisture could affect our
CWA with cyclonic flow aloft prevailing. We do not see any hints
of arctic air returning during this time, but temperatures will
probably cool off relative to a rather mild Wednesday. BT



VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area tonight.
Westerly winds gusting 20-30 kts at times along the foothills will
cause localized blowing/drifting snow. BT



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 007/027 014/031 016/033 019/038 029/045 031/043 025/034
    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/N    00/N    12/W    22/J
LVM 008/031 013/035 014/037 021/039 030/047 032/044 024/034
    00/N    00/N    00/U    00/N    22/W    22/W    33/J
HDN 902/023 001/028 007/030 009/035 022/042 023/042 019/033
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/J    22/J
MLS 905/022 901/027 009/028 011/033 024/042 025/039 021/033
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/J    22/J
4BQ 903/026 002/028 006/029 009/034 020/040 022/041 019/033
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/J
BHK 905/025 004/027 008/027 010/034 023/043 026/040 023/032
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/J
SHR 002/030 003/032 006/033 009/040 020/046 022/045 019/034
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    22/J




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