Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 192056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE
RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

THE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO WESTERN ZONES. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ADEQUATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT FOR THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL KICK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. 850MB WINDS WERE PROGGED AT 30KTS...SO ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY..THEY SHOULD NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY
STRONG. LOCATIONS FROM HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON WILL
LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUT 700MB WINDS MAXING OUT AT 30KTS WILL KEEP GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
LESS. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND BUT DO DIVERGE A BIT BY NEXT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF A TREASURE TO BIG HORN COUNTY LINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S.

WEAK RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
BECOMES STRONGER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE READINGS COOL CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOOLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/076 049/074 046/066 044/071 048/071 044/070 045/063
    00/U    01/B    21/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 041/074 047/069 040/063 040/068 044/068 043/069 043/062
    00/U    02/W    31/B    10/U    01/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 041/077 044/076 043/067 040/072 043/072 041/072 040/065
    00/U    00/U    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 042/075 044/075 045/066 041/070 044/071 041/069 042/065
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 043/076 045/078 045/064 039/070 042/072 042/071 043/066
    00/U    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 039/072 042/075 044/063 038/067 041/069 039/066 040/064
    00/U    00/U    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 039/078 041/078 040/066 035/071 039/073 038/073 039/068
    00/U    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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