Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 220345
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
945 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...

Severe threat diminished early this evening across our Central
areas and a small window continues out toward the Dakota border
this evening. Cold front has moved through most of Custer County
with a surface low now situated across far Southeast Montana.
There still remains a narrow band of weak showers and
thunderstorms across Rosebud County and another storm over
Northeast Powder River County into Carter County. Reports from
this storm when it moved over Broadus was very heavy rain. The
severe thunderstorm threat will continue for the next hour for
the Southeast portions of the state. After coordination with the
Storm Prediction Center...the watch will most likely be cancelled
within the hour.

Otherwise...little to no chance for showers across our central and
western areas for the remainder of the night but we will keep a
chance for a shower and thunderstorm across the east. Only update
at this time was to adjust pops accordingly. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

A line of thunderstorms was working it/s way NNE through the
western part of the forecast area this afternoon. Received report
of very heavy rain and half-inch hail from a storm that moved
through Big Timber. These storms were not located in unstable air
due to the heavy cloud cover that has persisted through the day,
but were being aided by frontogenesis and vorticity advection.
Further E...mainly E of KBIL...visible satellite showed that low
clouds had cleared out and thin cirrus was moving through the
area. Convection-allowing models lifted the western line of
storms N through the afternoon, then formed other storms around
Rosebud/Custer Counties during the evening as a cold front moves E
through the area. The far two eastern counties remain capped due
to strong SE low-level flow. Models were in agreement that the
strongest storms will be the western ones moving north. Cannot
rule out other strong storms east of KBIL in the Rosebud/Custer
County area as the system/s cold front makes it/s way E into this
area by 03z. Noted that very strong bulk effective shear was
moving E with time and the shear may be too strong to support the
eastern storms this evening. Had highest PoPs E of KBIL tonight.
Once area of storms becomes established, it should move quickly E
with the cold front.

The upper low will move E along the Canadian border Sun. through
Monday. The flow over the area turns W with energy moving through
the flow. Kept the idea of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Instability will be much lower with capes of a few
hundred joules/kg. Temperatures will be near normal. Arthur

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

No changes to the extended forecast this afternoon. Upper low
spinning just northeast of the state will continue to fill Tuesday
into Wednesday with weak energy rotating through eastern Montana
keeping a chance of precipitation in the forecast. Weak ridging
and generally light flow aloft build into the area from the west
Wednesday into Thursday. This pattern sets up well for isolated to
scattered airmass type showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening given the recent moisture we have seen over the
Northern Rockies. High temperatures look very seasonal in the 65
to 75 degree range through the extended period. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the
region...but continue to diminish in strength overnight. Local
MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain can be expected near convection.
Gusty southeast winds will continue into the night over Carter and
Fallon counties with gusts around 40kts. Westerly winds of 20 to
30kts will continue across the area behind the cold front and
associated convection. Stratus is likely to redevelop
overnight across much of the region...with IFR to occasional LIFR
conditions. Gilstad

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/068 044/067 044/068 047/068 047/069 048/070 048/073
    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 038/059 040/060 038/062 040/064 040/065 040/066 041/068
    23/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 045/071 041/071 042/070 048/070 048/071 050/072 049/075
    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
MLS 053/073 047/072 047/071 050/071 050/071 050/072 050/074
    42/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    22/T
4BQ 049/071 042/072 043/071 048/069 047/069 048/071 049/073
    53/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
BHK 049/073 042/071 042/070 047/069 047/068 048/069 048/070
    43/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T
SHR 042/066 038/068 040/066 043/065 043/066 044/066 046/069
    22/T    12/T    22/T    33/T    33/T    33/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189 in effect until midnight MDT
      tonight FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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