National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271018
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TWO THINGS...MIXING WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ANY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS GIVEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
THAT WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE QUIET AND WARM WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WYOMING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE RICH AND
COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL INCREASE...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING 30 TO 40 MPH MAINLY
ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.

REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME COMING TO A CONSISTENT
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. WEAKER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH SOME DIFFUSE ENERGY AND PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA WHILE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WEST COAST RIDGE BULGES
NORTHWARD TILTING FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE TO USHER IN COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND OVER RUNNING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS STILL A MESS AS FAR
AS CONSISTENCY GOES. THE ECMWF IS BACK TO HOLDING COLD AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS RIDGING...THOUGH IT IS THERE IS SOME FORM...AND BLASTS
A ZONAL PACIFIC JET THROUGH BRINGING A WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN TO THE AREA. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A BIG DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS MEMBERS WITH MAX TEMPERATURE STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF 7 OR HIGHER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MOS ENSEMBLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FOR BILLINGS IS FROM 46 TO 13 ON
SUNDAY...45 TO 18 ON MONDAY AND 53 TO 16 ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF THESE RANGES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THESE RANGES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TYPE POPS AND NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.
CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 35KTS AT TIMES. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/054 029/045 029/047 027/033 017/031 019/035
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    33/S    33/S
LVM 062 038/052 027/046 029/046 023/034 016/032 020/039
    0/N 33/W    00/B    01/B    14/S    33/S    44/S
HDN 055 034/050 024/044 025/044 024/032 014/030 016/034
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/B    04/S    32/S    33/S
MLS 055 035/046 026/042 026/043 024/029 014/025 012/030
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    23/S    22/S    22/S
4BQ 059 034/050 025/044 026/045 025/033 014/030 013/033
    0/U 01/E    00/B    00/B    04/S    32/S    22/S
BHK 056 033/045 025/039 025/042 023/026 011/024 009/026
    0/U 01/N    11/B    00/B    23/S    22/S    22/S
SHR 061 031/049 021/042 022/044 021/033 013/032 014/036
    0/U 34/W    00/U    00/B    14/S    32/S    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS