Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 010124
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
624 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
Just a quick update this evening to add/increase some PoP`s to
the eastern border counties where some light snow lingers. BT
.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...
The upper low that brought the snow and very windy conditions to
the far eastern portions of our forecast area the past couple of
days continues to slowly move east across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
However, this low continues to wrap low clouds and areas of light
snow westward across the western Dakotas and extreme eastern
Montana. Snow has stopped for the Baker area this afternoon but we
can`t rule out some scattered snow shower activity for the
remainder of the afternoon into this evening. Elsewhere, skies
will be mostly clear across our central locations this evening
with mostly cloudy skies across the west.
An upper level disturbance currently over Washington will move
southeast across the western half of Montana and eastern Idaho
tonight. This disturbance will bring increasing chances for snow
showers to the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains and adjacent foothills
with just minor accumulations expected.
General troughiness with embedded disturbances will continue over
the forecast are Thursday and Friday resulting in a chance for
snow showers Thursday and Thursday night. Lee-side troughing sets
up Friday afternoon and especially Friday night into the first
half of Saturday. This will bring a return to windy conditions for
the Livingston to Nye area. As a result, I did increase winds to
near advisory criteria for these areas Friday night into Saturday.
Confidence is increasing that an advisory may be needed for that
time period. Highs Thursday and Friday will be around normal with
readings for most areas in the middle to upper 30s. Hooley
.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
A significant cooldown remains possible early next week. There was
still uncertainty in the details of the pattern with the GEFS/GFS
reflecting some uncertainty from Sunday onward, and the ECMWF
showing uncertainty for the weekend. Tuesday looked like the
coldest day of the period. The GEFS CIPS analogs showed the
possibility of temperatures below zero on Tue. and the GEFS plumes
showed highs possibly in the single digits.
Before the cold weather arrives, an active NW flow will be over
the area for Saturday. This flow will bring scattered rain and
snow showers to much of the area. Jet divergence will be over the
region into Sunday when weak ridging gives way to the next
approaching Pacific trough. The highest PoPs will be over the
western mountains, and a decent snow accumulation is possible
there Sun. into Sun. night. Temperatures should reach the 40s each
day. A strong pressure gradient could result in a Wind Advisory
for the gap-flow areas on Saturday. Winds will remain gusty in
those areas into Sunday. The models bring a Pacific cold front
through the area Sunday night with a chance of snow showers.
On Monday, a large area of cold low pressure pivots SE from Canada
into the region. An arctic front will follow the Pacific front,
likely ushering in the coldest air of the season for Tuesday.
There will be a slight chance of snow showers over the area on
Monday, and then the models disagree on the position of the
surface low and associated moisture. Kept precipitation chances
low as neither model showed significant precipitation through
Tuesday. Kept highs in the 30s for Mon. and lowered them into the
low to mid teens for Tuesday. The system will slowly move E
through Wed. and temperatures will remain well below normal.
MVFR/IFR conditions will remain over Fallon and Carter Counties
this evening. Areas of obscuration will overspread the mountains
tonight. Scattered snow showers will move into the KLVM, Big
Timber and Harlowton areas tonight with accompanying MVFR/IFR
conditions. Widely scattered rain and snow showers will affect
the area on Thursday accompanied by MVFR/IFR conditions. The
mountains will have areas of obscuration. Arthur
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
BIL 026/040 024/037 028/043 029/044 025/032 010/015 006/017
12/W 22/J 22/J 23/O 32/J 22/J 21/B
LVM 022/037 023/036 032/040 031/044 022/031 007/013 005/017
32/W 42/J 33/W 45/R 42/J 22/J 22/J
HDN 023/039 023/035 024/043 027/043 025/032 007/016 002/015
12/W 22/J 22/W 22/O 32/J 22/J 21/B
MLS 015/035 020/034 021/041 024/040 022/030 005/014 901/012
01/E 22/J 13/W 12/O 32/J 22/J 21/B
4BQ 014/035 018/031 019/040 023/043 021/032 006/014 901/012
01/E 12/J 02/W 11/E 22/J 22/J 22/J
BHK 010/030 014/031 013/039 021/039 020/028 003/011 904/009
41/E 22/J 03/W 11/B 22/J 22/J 21/N
SHR 017/038 018/036 017/040 021/040 020/031 005/014 001/013
12/W 22/J 12/J 11/B 33/J 22/J 22/J