Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290220
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
820 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

WE REDUCED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING FROM HYSHAM TO MILES CITY AND BAKER IN RESPECT TO THE
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LACK OF FORCING ALOFT. THE SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WY AS OF 02 UTC MAY REACH SHERIDAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN MT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
BATCH OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING. THAT WILL OCCUR AS THE WAVE AND CONVECTION FOUND
NEAR CHEYENNE THIS EVENING PIVOTS NORTHWARD...AS SIMULATED BY THE
HRRR AND AS ALREADY REFLECTED BY OUR FORECAST.

THE ONLY OTHER REAL CHANGE OF NOTE THAT WAS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST WAS TO RAISE LOWS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS AS CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY OVER NEVADA. VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT EXISTS OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY...BUT SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FOG/STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE...ENOUGH  TO MAKE THE STREETS WET
IN BILLINGS IN FACT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER AS ACTUAL ASCENT/PCPN LIFT
INTO THE REGION OVER TIME.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN WY MOVES INTO OUR REGION. WILL SUSTAIN
LIKELY POPS FOR OUR UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT...AND RAISE POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH TO CENTRAL PARTS FROM 06-12Z THEN NORTH TO EAST PARTS
12-18Z TOMORROW TO COVER THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. FOR BILLINGS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE BUT ENDING BEFORE NOON...IE THE MORNING
COMMUTE. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR AND SOME DOWNSLOPING DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS PCPN CHANCES SHIFT EAST. THUS IT WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CRACK 60F IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL
PARTS INCLUDING BILLINGS. SHOULD SEE SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INCREASED SFC
TEMPS UNDER AREA OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.

MORE DYNAMIC PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SFC
LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH MOIST
ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME GOOD
RAINFALL WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR OUR EAST...SAY MILES CITY
TO BROADUS EAST...WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH IN THESE AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS
FURTHER FOR THESE PERIODS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT OUR WEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AS PLAINS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB
FURTHER INTO THE 60S IN OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS WITH THE
INCREASED DOWNSLOPE WINDS...IE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. W-NW WINDS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MIDWEEK BRINGING BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH REGION FROM THE NW. THIS IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY ON
THURSDAY BY A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH MODELS
HAVE PUSHED THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS WAVE FURTHER NE.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIDESPREAD LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST ZONES ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE LOWER LEVELS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN /RIDGING/ BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES. GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING SO I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG NORTH FACING TERRAIN. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM WYOMING INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/064 048/068 046/060 043/059 037/067 046/074 051/074
    76/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 042/067 045/066 037/058 037/060 034/066 040/071 043/071
    63/W    23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 044/065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/075
    86/W    22/W    23/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 045/063 048/064 045/059 043/058 034/062 044/071 049/072
    59/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 047/064 048/062 044/059 041/060 033/061 043/071 047/072
    99/T    67/T    22/W    12/W    00/B    11/U    10/U
BHK 043/057 049/061 044/057 039/056 032/056 038/066 046/068
    59/T    99/T    42/W    23/W    10/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 045/067 045/066 041/057 035/061 033/064 040/072 043/072
    94/W    22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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