Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 230923
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
323 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Upper trough has pushed into western Arizona and upper divergent
energy was spreading northward into the forecast area. Several
areas of showers have formed in this upper divergent pattern east
of Billings. As the base of the upper trough advances eastward,
the showers will follow suit and shift east through the morning.
That would place the heaviest QPF over southeast Montana and
generally in an area from Sheridan county into southern Big Horn
county, southern Rosebud county, Powder River county and southern
Custer county. Billings looks to be on the northwest side of the
main forcing and will therefore miss the majority of the event.
Weak upslope flow and upper forcing will provide a few showers
over south central zones, especially the foothills, but will leave
Billings PoPs at high scattered this morning. Adjusted PoPs to
account for latest model, satellite and radar trends.

The overall pattern was still warm with temperatures remaining in
the 40s over lower elevations. Dynamic cooling may be able to
force some light snow to mix with rain over the higher hills of
southern and southeast Montana as well as northern Wyoming, but
accumulation will be minimal as 850mb temperatures stay above 3c.
Have removed the majority of snow mention this morning expect for
higher hills. The Bighorn mountains will see accumulating snow and
have left the winter weather advisory in place. Should see 6-10
inches of snowfall at Burgess and surrounding locations through
this event. Temperatures will be tricky today as clouds may break
up some over the west and allow for warmer highs, while the east
will be held down in thick cloud cover and showers. A few warmer
highs may be able to pop a few showers over western and central
zones too with deep moisture aloft, so lingered low PoPs into the
afternoon.

Conditions dry out tonight and Friday looks dry and warmer as
upper ridging moves in. Models have cooled things down a touch for
Friday as low level flow was south to southeast and not the
efficient downslope direction of southwest to west. Also tried to
account for wet ground over the southeast and knocked temperatures
down a couple degrees there. Still expecting highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s, which is above seasonal averages. A northern
trough will approach the west late Friday night and have included
low PoPs for overnight Friday. Highest PoPs will be over the
higher terrain. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

The main theme in the extended remains the train of lows moving
south of the area through the middle of next week, bringing energy
across the area. The model differences that had been present
before have decreased. The GFS has trended more towards the EC/GEM
solution of wetter Tuesday into Wednesday. There remains some
differences in the placement of the precip, and some of the
differences may be down to the differences in the model
resolutions. Have generally increased PoPs going into mid week.

Otherwise have not made many changes. Saturday continues to look
wet with some showers lingering into Sunday, especially along the
Dakotas. Monday will be generally, as ridging works into the
northern Rockies. However, some shower activity could work into
the Beartooth/Absarokas. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Expecting rain chances from KBIL east, with the best chances from
KSHR to KBHK east. These showers will produce MVFR conditions with
some localized IFR. Conditions will improve this evening. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 034/063 043/058 037/057 037/059 039/055 037/059
    5/W 10/U    12/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    21/B
LVM 053 030/060 038/054 031/054 034/055 033/054 033/057
    3/W 10/N    13/W    42/W    12/W    23/W    21/B
HDN 056 031/065 037/060 036/060 035/062 037/056 035/061
    7/W 10/U    02/W    32/W    11/B    22/W    21/B
MLS 058 034/064 039/064 039/061 036/062 039/055 036/059
    5/W 10/U    01/E    32/W    11/B    34/W    43/W
4BQ 049 033/059 036/063 039/059 035/061 038/056 037/058
    9/W 40/U    01/E    63/W    11/B    35/W    43/W
BHK 051 031/060 033/063 037/058 032/059 034/053 034/056
    6/W 10/U    00/B    54/W    11/B    45/W    54/W
SHR 046 030/060 034/058 034/056 032/060 035/055 034/058
    9/W 40/U    02/W    52/W    11/B    33/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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