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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 152101
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
301 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Cyclonic flow and some weak instability were generating isolated
showers and thundestorms. High resolution models keep isolated
activity going early this evening, then decrease it quickly as
sun set approaches. The majority of the convection looks to be
tied to the higher terrain, but a few isolated cells have formed
over the plains of south central Montana this afternoon, so will
keep low PoPs early this evening.

Wednesday looks warmer and drier with less cloud cover. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out over the
higher terrain and along the foothills, but that should be the
extent of the activity. A cold front will advance through the
forecast area on Thursday. Models were now trying to initiate
isolated convection along and behind the front Thursday afternoon
and evening, mainly over southeast Montana. Will have to watch the
southeast, as projected capes out there were pretty high with a
decent shortwave trough invading late afternoon. Shear will be
increasing too. Will keep low PoPs for this, but will have to
watch closely for the potential for stronger storms. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Friday and Saturday will be dry days as ridging builds into the
area. With this ridging will come warmer temperatures,
approaching 90 degrees on the plains. Saturday night another dry
cold front will drop through. This will result winds shifting to
the northwest and will be a little breezy overnight. Sunday will
see the return of southwesterly monsoonal flow. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler on Sunday behind the front. Cloud cover will be
increasing Sunday with a chance of some showers over the
mountains Sunday night and continuing into Monday. Southern
Montana will be on the northern extent of the monsoonal flow, so
much of the area should remain dry. The EC is not as aggressive
as the GFS with strength of the monsoonal moisture. The
southwesterly flow will continue into Tuesday, with some rain
chances lingering in the higher terrain. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers and thundestorms this afternoon and early this
evening, will dissipate by sunset. Local MVFR conditions are
possible in the heavier showers, otherwise VFR should hold
tonight. Mountains will be occasionally obscured until around
sunset. Clouds will decrease overnight. TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/085 058/086 056/089 059/089 058/082 056/084 057/087
    20/U    11/N    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
LVM 049/084 049/084 046/089 050/088 049/083 048/085 049/087
    21/B    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 054/088 056/088 054/090 057/092 057/086 056/087 056/089
    21/U    11/N    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
MLS 056/087 060/090 056/089 060/093 059/085 057/087 057/089
    20/U    11/B    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 053/085 057/090 055/088 057/093 058/087 056/087 056/089
    20/U    12/T    20/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    11/U
BHK 053/083 056/088 053/086 055/092 056/083 054/083 054/086
    21/U    12/T    10/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    11/U
SHR 049/083 052/084 050/085 052/090 053/085 051/084 052/087
    21/U    12/T    20/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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