Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 210220
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
820 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast looks on track with no significant changes made on this
update. Cumulus development is generally on the decrease and cloud
cover will continue to wane through the night. Expect temperatures
to be a couple degrees warmer than last night, with low 50s
expected across most of the area. Walsh

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Quiet weather looks to continue through Sunday. Tempeatures will
be slightly warmer for Sunday, as there the area will be a little
be drier letting tempeatures get up to near 90 degrees for most
places. During the late afternoon and evening, the is a little bit
of PV that will move into the mountains. Though, with a lack of
moisture this will mostly result in just some CU forming over the
terrain. Monday will be another warm day, with westerly
downsloping winds producing more temperatures in the lower 90s. A
cold front will move through during the late afternoon and evening
which will mainly shift winds to the northwest. While winds will
be increasing to 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity values
dropping into the teens, with the rainfall had Thursday and
Friday conditions should stay below any fire weather concerns.
There still is not much moisture with this front, so only have a
slight chance of PoPs. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

The ensembles for the GFS and ECMWF showed poor agreement with the
pattern beginning on Thursday. Deterministic models had similar
issues late in the extended period. Thus have not changed much for
late in the period. For Tue., an upper low was forecast to move E
along the MT/Canadian border to N of ND Tue. evening. Moisture was
limited during the day on Tue., then increased late Tue. night.
Tue. will be cooler behind Mon. night`s cold front with highs in
the mid to upper 70s. Continued some low PoPs in the W, and NE
Bighorns late Tue. night. Cyclonic flow on Wed. will be followed
by a trough rotating through the flow Wed. night. Cooler air and
moisture will continue to filter into the region. Highs on Wed.
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and there will be a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area.
Cyclonic flow will continue Thu. but airmass will be drying out,
so precipitation chances will be confined to areas over and near
the mountains.

For Thu. night and Fri., the GFS brought another shortwave
through the area, while the ECMWF had the wave much further NE.
Continued the low PoPs across the area due to this pattern
uncertainty. Pattern uncertainty continues through Sat., so left
inherited forecast alone. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds
and clear skies. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/091 058/091 055/078 051/068 049/069 050/074 051/079
    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/W    22/T    22/W
LVM 048/092 051/090 046/077 045/070 043/070 044/075 045/081
    00/U    03/T    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
HDN 051/092 057/093 055/080 050/071 048/073 049/077 050/082
    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T    22/W    22/T    22/W
MLS 053/091 058/094 058/079 052/071 050/073 051/078 053/081
    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/N    11/B    22/T    22/W
4BQ 050/090 057/094 058/078 051/069 048/071 051/076 051/080
    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/T    22/W
BHK 049/087 055/094 055/077 050/068 046/071 048/075 050/080
    00/U    00/U    11/N    11/N    11/B    22/T    22/W
SHR 048/091 054/092 052/078 048/068 045/070 045/075 049/079
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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