Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 270239
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
839 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
COOL AIRMASS WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES
AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY EVIDENT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP.
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO NO UPDATES TO FORECAST
NEEDED. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME. GOD
FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM GREAT PLAINS INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER BULK OF THIS SO FAR HAS STAYED SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MODELS
ALL CONSISTENT IN STRETCHING TROUGH AXIS AS DOUBLE BARRELLED
ENERGY REGIONS ROTATE THROUGH TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE
WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AFFECTING OUR CWA. THIS BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME SIX HOUR
PERIODS WITH HIGH POPS MAY END UP QUIET FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ROTATES THROUGH...BUT WE ARE TRYING TO
PUT CATEGORICAL POPS OUT THERE SINCE MOST LOCATIONS IN EAST AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL SEE PRECIPITATION.

ONCE UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A NICE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...


MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO GENERAL PATTERN
IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
PATTERN IS COMPLEX AND SPECIFICS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN.
THEREFORE...CHOSE TO CONTINUE WITH BLEND OF LATEST MODELS
CONSENSUS. THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS THE
SLOWER PROGRESS OF THE LOW OUT OF THE REGION...AND THEREFORE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY....AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE...AS
EAST WINDS KEEP DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...AND LIMIT WARM UP.
GENERAL TROFFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA HOWEVER...GIVING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE REGION SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS POINTS TOWARD CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER SUPPORT OF
DIMINISHING POP IS THE SURFACE PATTERN...WHICH POINTS TOWARD
DRYING CONDITIONS...WITH PREVAILING DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DID
CARRY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY.

AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND POPS DIMINISH...WE SHOULD SEE SLOWLY
INCREASING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR TUESDAY. GILSTAD
&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE. STP/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/047 036/048 035/056 038/056 040/059 040/065 039/070
    64/O    33/W    22/W    33/W    33/W    22/W    21/U
LVM 033/050 033/051 032/059 035/058 036/059 035/067 035/071
    44/O    33/W    23/W    34/W    43/W    22/W    11/U
HDN 034/047 034/050 033/057 036/055 037/058 036/065 036/070
    94/O    33/W    22/W    23/W    33/W    22/W    21/U
MLS 035/046 033/049 032/057 038/055 039/059 038/065 038/069
    67/O    65/W    21/B    23/W    33/W    22/W    11/U
4BQ 034/045 031/046 030/055 036/051 036/055 035/063 035/068
    66/O    54/W    22/W    34/W    43/W    22/W    21/U
BHK 033/043 030/045 030/051 035/052 036/056 034/063 034/065
    68/O    85/W    32/W    23/W    43/W    21/B    21/U
SHR 032/046 032/048 031/054 034/052 034/054 034/061 033/066
    73/O    33/W    22/W    34/W    43/W    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
      FOR ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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