Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261543
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
943 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY AS JET ENERGY POURING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST COAST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE COAST. SEVERAL
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL KICK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN THIS FLOW. ONE
WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THIS BUT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING OVER TIME THIS MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE MORNING DRY. A
SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ONE WILL
HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH WITH SOME CAPES NEAR 500
J/KG. SHEAR LOOKS ADEQUATE NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS FOR A STRONG
STORM. DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD POINT TO MAINLY A
WIND THREAT. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE AT THIS POINT...SINCE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. NO OTHER CHANGES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TODAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT
DEPICTING ANY STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER OUR AREA TODAY BUT WE
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WHEN
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS THEY DO...A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE CENTRAL AREAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AND HAVE INCREASED AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-
SHERIDAN LINE TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST AND VERY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER WILL
BE LIKELY. THE UPPER LOW AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST MONTANA BY MONDAY EVENING AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS
PLACE THE BULK OF THE QPF TO OCCUR...ALTHOUGH SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS S RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ON TUESDAY...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

VERY WINDY AND COOL TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN. 850MB WIND SPEEDS STILL PROGGED IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LOOKS TO BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND SOME CLOUD COVER BUT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA. HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WILL BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT SO UNSURE ABOUT FIRE IMPACTS
SINCE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHEST HUMIDITY.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FEATURES ZONAL FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF KBIL...COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS. BORSUM/TWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 061/075 052/075 054/087 058/092 060/093 061/090
    2/T 26/T    42/W    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 091 055/070 047/074 048/084 051/089 054/091 055/089
    3/T 36/T    43/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 095 058/082 051/076 052/088 056/093 058/095 059/092
    1/B 23/T    42/W    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 097 064/086 054/072 054/088 059/093 061/095 061/092
    2/T 23/T    43/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 096 063/092 054/074 053/087 057/092 060/094 061/092
    1/U 22/T    22/W    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 095 063/091 054/073 053/084 056/089 057/091 058/088
    2/T 23/T    32/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 094 055/086 049/072 049/084 053/089 055/092 056/089
    1/U 22/T    22/W    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      MONDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.