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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281508
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS EXTENDED THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT TODAY. AT 9 AM...WEAK ECHOES
EVIDENT ON TFX RADAR NEAR DLN/BTM/BZN. 12Z RAOBS SHOW PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES UPSTREAM AT BOISE AND SALT LAKE CITY...WITH
FAIRLY MOIST PROFILES ABOVE 600MB. ALL OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY...AND
HAVE RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED FOR THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS.
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS COMING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS AND MID
LEVEL CAPPING WILL KEEP OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY...UNDERNEATH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...THOUGH WE WILL SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN A FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO SAY CONCERNING THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...THAT RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING SOME WEAK RETURN OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT MAY PRODUCE SOME WETTING RAIN
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ABSAROKAS/BEARTOOTHS TO THE BIG
HORNS. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST SO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS PACKAGE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN....MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY LOW 90S. ADDITIONALLY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD
BE HELD OFF TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN REDUCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TIGHTLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING INTO THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AT BEST. THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN SLIGHT FOR
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS STRONG RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE. DID PARE BACK THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY...AS NOW APPEARS WILL BE LESSER POTENTIAL TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. EASTERN ZONES APPEAR TO STAY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND MVFR
CONDITION AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE KLVM AND KSHR SITES. HOOLEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/089 060/089 060/089 062/091 064/091 062/092
    0/B 00/B    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 089 054/089 053/088 054/089 055/091 055/089 055/088
    1/B 12/T    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 091 058/091 057/090 059/091 061/093 061/092 061/093
    0/U 00/B    01/B    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 089 060/089 060/089 061/089 064/093 064/093 064/092
    0/U 00/B    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
4BQ 088 058/088 058/088 059/088 060/092 062/091 062/091
    0/U 00/B    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 083 054/085 054/085 056/085 059/089 059/088 059/088
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 089 056/086 053/086 055/086 057/089 057/087 057/088
    0/U 12/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS