Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180007
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
507 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Have allowed the Winter Storm Warning for the Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains to expire. The majority of the snowfall has ended, with
only minor additional accumulations expected through the evening. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Upper level trough is currently passing overhead this afternoon.
Much of the precipitation has shifted south, but some convective
snow showers were affecting the mountain regions this afternoon.
These showers will gradually reduce after sunset with loss od
diurnal heating.

The main story through the weekend will be winds along the
mountain foothills. Strong pressure gradients will develop along
the Rocky mountain front this evening and will persist through the
entire weekend as strong mid-level flow keeps these features in
place. Temperatures will be warm through much of the weekend with
persistent downslope conditions expected. The NW orientation of
the mid-level winds should keep the strongest winds out of these
foothills locations until Sunday night. Currently have wind gusts
around 40 to 50 mph through Sunday afternoon along the foothills.
Mid-level winds turn westerly and southwesterly through the
afternoon Sunday ahead of an approaching disturbance. These winds
will become more aligned with our gap favored locations such as
Livingston and Nye and the pressure gradient will increase so
expect wind gust increases Sunday night into Monday night. Wind
gusts could be in excess of 60 mph Sunday night into Monday
morning so be sure to monitor future forecast updates. For the
lower elevations off the foothills, breezy conditions are
anticipated through the weekend with wind gusts generally around
20 to 30 mph each afternoon, with less wind gusts around 15 to 25
mph near the Dakotas border.

Temperatures will be in the upper low to mid 40s on Saturday and
then warm to near the 50s on Sunday. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Monday into Tuesday will see cold front move through the area.
This will help to reduce the winds along the foothills. It will
also bring a quick chance for mountain snow, with rain switching
switching over to snow overnight on the plains. Conditions will
remain cool on Tuesday with highs lower 40s, but will then begin a
warmup through Thanksgiving.

Winds will be downsloping, with the winds along the foothills
will become gustier for the later part of the week. The
downsloping will help with the warmer temperatures. One thing
that could affect temperatures is models are showing a chinook
arch that could reduce the amount of solar heating. Highs on
Thanksgiving will in the mid to near 60 degrees. While the area
will be under the influence of a high, there will be several
impulses of energy, that will keep a chance of snow over the
mountains. The next chance for precip for the lower elevations
will be late Thanksgiving and into next Friday. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated rain/snow showers with local MVFR near the foothills
will diminish by 02z. Expect mountains to be frequently obscured
until late evening. VFR will prevail across the area late tonight
through Saturday as high pressure aloft builds in from the west.
SW-W winds will increase at KLVM with gusts 35-45 kts late tonight
through Saturday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/043 027/049 033/047 024/040 032/055 040/057 037/050
    10/N    00/U    02/W    21/B    11/E    11/B    22/W
LVM 028/043 027/047 035/043 026/042 036/053 042/054 036/046
    20/N    00/N    03/W    31/B    22/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 029/046 023/052 029/049 023/041 028/056 036/059 034/051
    10/N    00/U    01/E    11/B    11/B    11/B    22/W
MLS 027/044 024/050 027/047 018/038 023/054 035/057 034/050
    10/N    00/U    01/E    11/B    11/E    11/B    21/B
4BQ 028/044 022/053 027/051 021/038 025/055 036/059 034/051
    10/N    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/E    10/B    11/B
BHK 026/041 021/052 025/049 014/033 017/051 031/055 031/048
    10/N    00/U    01/N    11/B    11/E    11/B    11/B
SHR 023/044 019/052 025/050 023/043 026/052 033/058 031/050
    30/U    00/U    01/E    11/B    11/B    11/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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