Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 290955
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE OVER
THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY HAS
EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING MOVING
NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY REACHED
SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES NORTH.
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT NUMEROUS...FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE.
BOTH LOWS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY DUE TO A
SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    6/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/W 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    6/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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