Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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611
FXUS65 KBYZ 071608
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. STRONG UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW
ARE WELL EAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WITH A WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BAKER CONTINUES TO GUST AROUND 60 MPH AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. FURTHER WEST TOWARD MILES CITY AND FORSYTH...WINDS ARE
LESS AND GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH. STILL BELIEVE EASTERN CUSTER
COUNTY CAN GET A HIGH WIND GUST TODAY SO WILL LEAVE THEM IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING. NOT SURE ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL GET A HIGH WIND
GUST TODAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING IN THE CURRENT NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO WARRANT A CHANCE. WILL MOST LIKELY
BE ABLE TO REMOVE THAT AREA FROM THE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR UPDATE MADE WAS TO TWEAK SKY COVER JUST A BIT.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE WIND YESTERDAY IS
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING IN OVER
THE ROCKIES. JET STREAM ORIENTED N TO S IS NOSING DOWN INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE 850-700MB
LAYER IS PROGGED TO HAVE WIND SPEEDS FROM 50 TO 65 KTS OVER OUR
EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN PROGGED OVER
7 C/KM AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. FALLON
AND CARTER COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS WHICH COULD BE
AROUND 65 MPH. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS
CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE REASONABLE. THE END OF THE WARNING VALID
PERIOD OF 8 PM LOOKS FINE AS WELL WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING SOME
DECREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS BY THAT TIME.

REST OF FORECAST FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES...EASTERN MONTANA IS PLACED
UNDER A DRY FAST NORTHERLY FLOW. BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD PREVAIL. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRI WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO SHIFT E AND BREAK DOWN. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED
ON LATEST MODELS. STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED W OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING
SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO FAR EASTERN MT ON
TUE...SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KBHK
AREA. THE WEATHER WILL THEN BE DRY THROUGH THU. MORE MOISTURE WILL
COME AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE KBHK AREA THU NIGHT SUPPORTING
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THERE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
E FRI THROUGH SAT...AND A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SW MOUNTAINS ON
SAT DUE TO THE WAVE. MODELS DIFFERED ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE BUT
CONTINUED TO MOVE IT E SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE WAVE WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT. A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUN WITH THE WAVE IN THE REGION.

MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S
IN MANY AREAS THROUGH SUN. DUE TO LEE TROUGHING...IT WILL BE WINDY
FROM KBIL W THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. ARTHUR
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY E TODAY WITH NW SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 50 KT. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE KMLS AND
KBHK AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT E OF KMLS AND KBHK LATER
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ARTHUR/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 028/053 035/058 036/059 036/056 035/054 035/055
    0/B 00/B    00/N    00/U    01/N    11/B    10/B
LVM 042 029/049 035/053 034/052 034/051 034/050 035/051
    0/N 00/N    00/N    00/N    01/N    11/N    11/N
HDN 044 022/050 028/056 029/056 030/053 029/051 028/053
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    10/B
MLS 042 021/045 030/052 030/052 029/049 030/047 029/049
    0/N 00/B    01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    10/B
4BQ 040 021/044 030/053 029/055 029/050 028/049 028/050
    0/N 00/B    01/B    10/U    01/B    11/B    10/B
BHK 037 018/040 027/046 027/048 027/043 026/041 025/044
    0/N 00/B    02/W    10/U    01/B    21/E    11/B
SHR 039 021/047 028/055 026/055 027/051 027/051 026/052
    0/N 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/U    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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