Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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716
FXUS65 KBYZ 170942
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
342 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

A zonal flow aloft will be over the forecast area today. Skies
will be partly sunny with dry conditions prevailing for most
locations. A Pacific front will move across the forecast area this
afternoon into early this evening. The front is expected to be
dry but there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
Powder River, Fallon and Carter Counties this afternoon/evening.
Expect some westerly winds 10-20 mph ahead of the front with the
winds shifting to the northwest gusting around 30 mph behind the
front. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the upper 80s
with afternoon humidities in the teens. Given the anticipated
gusty winds, low humidities and dry conditions we will continue
with the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon into this evening
from roughly along and east of a Golden Valley-Yellowstone-
Sheridan County line. A dry westerly flow aloft along with mostly
sunny skies will prevail for Friday. Temperatures behind the front
on Friday will actually be warmer than today with readings in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Upper-level westerly flow dominates on Saturday and Sunday. A
weak and dry disturbance embedded in the westerly flow looks to
track over central Montana during the day on Saturday. This
disturbance should increase mid-level winds, which should result
in increased surface wind speeds to 15 mph/gusting to 25 mph,
mainly for areas northeast of Billings /including Miles City and
Baker/ Saturday afternoon. Relative humidity values should be in
the teens...so could have fire weather concerns Saturday
afternoon. Flow then turns slightly to the southwest on Sunday,
which can bring in enough mid-level moisture to produce a few
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.

Upper ridging and dry weather should dominate Monday through much
of Wednesday. At the moment looks like west/northwesterly flow
aloft on Monday should help to shunt monsoonal moisture south of
our area, which is a small change in Monday`s outlook from how it
looked yesterday. Ridge axis should move eastward on Wednesday
which should allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms
to occur over the mountains first and then eventually the whole
CWA Wednesday night.

High temperatures should generally be in the 80s Saturday through
Wednesday, with lower 90s over southeast MT on Saturday. RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR condition to prevail. Winds will increase as a cold
front moves through between 15z and 20z today from northwest to
southeast. Winds gusting to 25 kts are possible. Reimer/RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 056/091 059/088 058/085 058/085 058/088 060/088
    0/B 00/U    00/U    11/U    10/U    11/U    00/U
LVM 085 046/091 050/089 050/086 049/085 049/088 051/087
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    01/U
HDN 088 054/092 057/090 057/087 056/087 056/090 058/090
    0/N 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    00/U
MLS 091 056/091 059/091 060/087 058/086 058/089 060/090
    0/B 00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    10/U
4BQ 088 053/090 058/092 059/090 058/086 057/089 059/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    01/U
BHK 089 052/087 055/091 056/085 055/083 054/086 056/085
    2/T 10/U    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 085 050/090 052/089 054/087 053/085 052/087 054/087
    1/B 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 9 PM MDT this
      evening FOR ZONES 117-127>133.
     Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday FOR
      ZONE 117.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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