Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 221540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
840 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017


No changes for inherited forecast this morning. Fog is still an
issue for eastern counties. We do expect to see clearing from
west to east this morning...but may see areas of fog in the
northeast corner of the CWA...including Baker...persist into this
afternoon. AAG


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

Overall quiet day in store for our region. We have two features
that will affect our CWA, but neither will be far reaching nor
create substantial impact.

First feature is a weak back door front sneaking down from the
northeast into Custer and Fallon county this morning. Cross
sections and soundings show low level moisture moving into these
areas toward sunrise. Satellite confirms layer of low level
moisture sliding s/se across northeast Montana and the western
Dakotas at this time. Indications are this would produce low level
clouds and fog through early afternoon. So have added this to the
forecast. This could make roads and especially bridges/overpasses
slick as temps are well below freezing out there this morning.

The second feature is a weak shortwave in the Pacific flow moving
across the CWA toward evening. Low levels remain on the dry side
so main affect will be scattered snow showers over the higher
terrain. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Monday morning, a storm system moves into the
Beartooth/Absarokas. Upslope deepens from Red Lodge to Billings
by late afternoon and flurries will likely begin around then. Snow
will spread into the central Plains and Bighorns by Monday night.
Models still look similar to last night, with the ECMWF being the
drier model and the GFS and CMC on the wet side. Pretty difficulty
pattern to get a handle on as it appears several lobes of forcing
will spill over the Rockies between Monday and Tuesday.
Disorganized surface low and low-level wind pattern moves into
central Wyoming on Monday night. By far the most uncertainty
regarding the snow totals are from Billings to Forsyth to Baker
and northward. Slight changes in the eventual track of the low
will make the difference between an inch or two of snow to double
that. Generally expecting 1 to 2 inches north of and east of
Interstate 94 with ranging down to 4 to 6 in southernmost MT and
Sheridan County. Fresh snow and winds increasing over the Plains
means blowing snow could be an issue through Tuesday. Those with
travel plans late Monday through Tuesday night should pay close
attention to the forecast, especially anyone heading to the south.
Northerly flow persists Wednesday into Friday with cool
temperatures and a slight chance of snow showers. Temperatures
warm slightly as we head into the weekend with an encroaching
ridge moving in from the west. Expecting gusty winds westerly
winds as we head into the weekend from Big Timber to Harlowton and
over to Billings. Walsh



Fog and low stratus will continue through at least 18z, and
locally through 21z, over areas east of a Forsyth to Alzada line.
Surface visibilities down to 1/2sm and LIFR ceilings can be
expected in this area including KMLS and KBHK. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail today. Chambers



    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 033 017/028 016/024 008/025 011/025 016/032 020/038
    0/U 13/S    76/J    22/S    11/U    11/N    10/N
LVM 037 019/034 012/024 008/026 008/022 014/031 019/036
    1/B 24/S    85/J    22/S    11/B    21/B    11/N
HDN 030 008/026 015/024 003/023 007/022 012/031 013/035
    0/U 02/S    76/J    22/S    21/B    11/B    10/U
MLS 028 010/024 013/023 006/021 004/019 009/030 015/035
    0/F 01/B    55/J    22/S    21/B    11/B    11/U
4BQ 032 008/027 013/022 005/022 005/019 009/029 015/035
    0/U 02/S    87/J    22/S    22/S    11/B    10/U
BHK 027 009/025 014/021 007/019 005/017 005/026 013/033
    0/B 01/B    46/J    32/S    22/S    11/B    11/U
SHR 034 012/029 013/022 003/024 005/021 008/031 013/037
    0/U 02/S    87/J    22/S    21/B    11/B    10/U




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