Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 010914
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

OUR PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TODAY. SOME WEAK
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STAY MAINLY
TO OUR E/NE...WHILE WEAK BUT MOIST SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WILL BRING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH COUNTRY
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A
BIT EASTWARD AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONAL IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND GETS BROKEN DOWN BY
PACIFIC ENERGY GOING INTO MONDAY. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN
AREA OF ORGANIZED VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
JUMP TO 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH COMPARED TO RECENT
TRENDS AND WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EITHER WITH
ECMWF SHOWING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO EVOLVE THOUGH AND CONTINUED INCREASING POPS BUT NOT
READY TO BITE OFF A SIGNIFICANT EVENT JUST YET...BUT WILL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON IT. THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
REPLACED BY A DRIER FLATTENED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED
MOISTURE PROFILES HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 DEGREES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO THE BLACK HILLS. A
DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA EARLY IN THE EVENING
SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 061/091 063/092 063/089 063/084 059/085 060/090
    1/U 02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
LVM 090 054/090 056/090 055/086 055/082 052/087 052/089
    2/T 23/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    32/T    11/U
HDN 094 058/093 060/094 060/090 061/084 057/087 057/091
    1/U 01/U    12/T    22/T    33/T    32/T    11/U
MLS 094 062/093 064/094 064/091 063/084 060/085 061/090
    1/U 01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    21/U
4BQ 093 060/093 061/094 062/092 063/084 059/084 059/089
    2/T 01/U    12/T    22/T    34/T    43/T    21/U
BHK 091 056/090 057/090 059/089 057/082 056/082 056/086
    1/U 11/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    21/U
SHR 090 055/090 057/091 057/088 057/079 053/082 053/087
    2/T 11/B    22/T    23/T    44/T    43/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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