Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 271511
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
911 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LEFT AREAS OF
SMOKE IN THE GRIDS BUT HAVE NOTICED THAT MOST OF THE SMOKE IS
ELEVATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO FOR NOW VISIBILITIES ARE GOOD AND
AIR QUALITY CONCERNS ARE AT A MINIMUM. WITH WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SMOKE CONCERNS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED.

LITTLE PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST AROUND THE RIDGE WILL HELP
GIVE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INCONSISTENT WITH SOME BEING VERY ACTIVE WHILE OTHERS HAVE VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION. SREF PROBABILITIES OF HIGH CAPES HAVE
NOTICEABLY DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD AMOUNTS
OF SMOKE ALOFT...UNSURE IF WE WILL REALIZE THE HIGHER CAPES. WITH
THIS IN MIND LOWERED POPS 5 OR 10 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DID
NOT CHANGE POPS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. DOBBS/SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SUBTROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MANY AREAS AND PREVENTING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SEEN IN SOME AREAS WEDNESDAY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE
STARTING OUT LOW THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO DEQ REPORTS...BUT
MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN PULLING HEAVIER
SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY
MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE ADVECTION FRIDAY.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED. A FEW IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE...
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE RIDGE BRINGING A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MROWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 061/090 062/097 063/083 057/082 053/084 054/084
    3/T 30/B    01/B    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 086 052/088 055/091 054/080 050/079 046/081 048/082
    4/T 30/U    02/T    22/T    21/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 092 060/092 060/099 062/088 056/084 052/086 053/087
    3/T 30/B    01/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
MLS 092 062/094 064/100 065/088 060/085 055/087 055/086
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 089 059/092 061/099 062/087 058/085 055/086 056/087
    3/T 21/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    11/U    11/U
BHK 086 059/092 059/097 062/088 057/085 054/085 054/087
    2/T 20/B    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 086 056/088 055/095 057/087 053/084 050/085 050/085
    3/T 31/B    00/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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