Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180316

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
816 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017


Made adjustments to increase pops over southwest mountains given
favorable southwest flow in moisture rich feed off the Pacific.
Snow accumulations don`t look particularly impressive though so
kept accumulations in the Cooke City area under 6 inches through
tomorrow evening. Not much chance for precipitation to make it
over the divide with this system, just an increase in cloud cover.
Rest of the forecast in good shape. Temperatures already in the
30s in some areas this evening, 10 to 20 degrees below this time
last evening. Increasing cloud cover should slow down this trend
overnight. Chambers


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Shortwave exiting our region today to the east with ridging
overnight and into Saturday. However, mid level flow will back to
the southwest over western Montana low pressure dominates the
west coast. This will send Pacific moisture and weak impulses into
our SW mountains. So trend of increasing PoP`s over our
Absarokas/Beartooths looks good. By Sunday evening a split flow
trough axis moves over the region. This will help bring shower
activity out into the lower elevations Sunday night.

Bottom line for the weekend...increasing cloud cover and shower
activity, but continued mild temperatures for most of the CWA. BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Warm start for the beginning of the week with above normal
temperatures before normal to below normal temperatures arrive
mid to late week. A large trough will be positioned off the west
coast Monday resulting in ridging and a southwest flow aloft
across our forecast area. This will result in mainly dry weather
and warm temperatures. A disturbance within the flow will move
across the area late Monday night into Tuesday bringing increasing
chances for showers.

The main weather feature with possible impacts will arrive late
Wednesday into Friday. Models bring an upper low across the
central Rockies and carve a trough over the northern and central
Rockies mainly Thursday. Models are not in best agreement with the
exception that they have trended the storm a bit further south
with the latest 12z runs. This would keep the heaviest snow across
Wyoming into western South Dakota. However, we are still looking
at a good chance for snow along and south of a Miles City-
Billings-Livingston line, with the highest confidence across the
vicinity of the Montana/Wyoming border east to South Dakota. This
is still quite a ways out so as is usually the case the models
will most likely waiver somewhat with each run. In any case,
confidence is high for this storm to pull down colder air allowing
temperatures to drop below normal by Thursday and Friday. Hooley



Clouds will be on the increase over the Beartooth/Absaroka
Mountains with snow showers and mountain obscurations expected.
Otherwise increasing cloud cover and VFR ceilings can be expected
over the lower elevations tonight, with generally light winds.



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 033/053 037/057 035/056 038/059 032/049 029/036 020/033
    00/E    02/W    31/B    22/W    12/W    66/S    44/S
LVM 030/051 034/052 030/051 037/052 028/044 023/035 016/032
    12/J    14/W    21/B    24/W    23/W    66/S    44/S
HDN 026/050 029/053 030/053 032/055 027/048 025/037 018/035
    00/B    02/W    31/B    12/W    11/B    66/S    54/S
MLS 029/048 030/052 033/052 033/055 030/047 026/037 021/034
    00/E    00/B    41/B    12/W    11/B    44/S    43/S
4BQ 030/053 033/056 034/055 033/060 031/050 028/037 018/034
    00/B    00/B    42/W    11/B    11/B    67/S    74/S
BHK 029/048 031/056 035/051 033/056 031/045 025/033 018/031
    00/E    00/B    53/W    12/W    11/B    44/S    44/S
SHR 028/052 031/054 029/053 032/058 027/047 024/034 016/032
    00/B    01/B    31/B    11/B    11/B    77/S    64/S




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