Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 202138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
338 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Broad trof, with associated jet streak over northeastern
Washington, was continuing inland this afternoon. Broad pressure
falls were ongoing across the Rocky Mountain front, and in the
plains. These pressure falls helped increased the winds along the
mountain foothills, especially in gap-favored locations such as
Livingston, Big Timber, and Nye. As pressure falls continue
through the afternoon and evening these winds should increase to
sub-advisory levels with 55 mph gusts possible through 9PM. After
9PM the winds should begin to subside as pressure rises move into
the plains behind the trof and jet streak. Could see the stronger
winds stick around just a little bit longer in Livingston as an
inversion sets up over the mountaintops, briefly sustaining the
gap-winds. Continued pressure rises though the night should
combat this effect so I dont expect the sub-advisory winds to
continue after midnight, if they even last that long.

As the trof slides through, a small chance of showers is possible
north of Livingston, Billings, and Miles City overnight, but with
minimal forcing, and some residual downslope winds, we wont see
much coverage. The rest of the short term will see mostly quiet
conditions on Friday and Saturday as ridging forces weather
systems to our north and west. There is a small chance of rain
north and west of a Livingston-Roundup line on Saturday. Temperatures
will be warmer on Friday with temperatures climbing into the low
to mid 60s. Expect continued warmth through the beginning of the
weekend as downslope flow off the higher terrain keeps conditions
dry. Temperatures will still remain in the lower 60s again on
Saturday. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Extended period begins with quiet conditions as ridging remains in
control for Sunday and Monday. While downslope flow will give way
to light and variable flow, ridging overhead will keep
temperatures warm and in the lower 60s. As the southwest flow
increase over the region Tuesday and Wednesday, shower chances
will increase from the southwest as weak pieces of energy move
northeast through our forecast area. There is too much spread in
the global models at this time to pin down timing so left mention
of rain chances in the forecast from Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening. Finally, another round of ridging appears to
move into the region for Thursday and Friday of next week,
bringing dry conditions.

Temperatures will generally cool off after Tuesday but only into
the mid to upper 50s and still above average for this time of
year. Dobbs


Variable mid/high level clouds are expected over the forecast
area through today. Strong southwest winds will continue at KLVM
through the evening with gusts to 45 kts at times before
diminishing somewhat after 06Z. BT



    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
BIL 047/066 042/063 040/064 043/067 043/065 043/059 040/058
    10/B    01/B    10/B    01/B    11/B    22/W    22/W
LVM 046/065 040/062 036/064 041/066 041/062 040/057 039/056
    11/B    01/B    10/B    01/E    12/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 040/068 039/065 039/065 041/068 041/066 041/060 039/060
    00/B    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W
MLS 040/065 040/063 039/062 040/066 042/065 042/059 038/056
    21/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    12/W    22/W
4BQ 036/067 038/070 038/065 040/071 042/067 041/061 039/059
    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    01/B    01/B    21/B
BHK 036/063 037/064 035/059 037/063 039/062 039/057 036/054
    22/W    10/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    12/W    22/W
SHR 035/065 036/067 035/065 039/069 039/066 038/060 035/059
    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    01/B    11/B    22/W




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