Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 030248
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
EVEN THOUGH A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH MONTANA...THERE
HAS BEEN NO DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. DO NOT SEE ANY MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO
UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES. BAKER CONTINUES TO REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
HAZE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. REIMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

AREAS OF CAPPED CUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST AROUND OUR CWA TODAY AS THE
AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
AREA OF PV OVER NORTHERN ID IS APPROACHING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...
BUT IT IS FAILING TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NW MT PER THE
EXISTING DRY AIR. AIRMASS IS A LITTLE MORE MOIST IN OUR CWA SO
FEEL THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR
WESTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS INTO THE EVENING AS ASCENT FROM THE
ENERGY SPREADS TO CENTRAL MT. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A QUIET
NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND STILL MOSTLY DRY UNDER FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN SO
EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF PV CURRENTLY OFF THE WA
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND TO NORTH CENTRAL MT BY 00Z PROVIDING
WEAK ASCENT. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED.

SATURDAY IS OF MORE CONCERN AS WE SEE MORE INTENSE WARMING AHEAD
OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 90S AND 100F COULD BE NEARED
IN SOME AREAS WITH A MIXED W-NW WIND. AIRMASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT AS ASCENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE AND MID LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN WE MAY SEE A LITTLE PRE-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY BY EVENING. MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POST-FRONTALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE
WELL-MIXED ON SATURDAY...TO NEAR 550MB PER THE GFS...MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MIXED
WIND POTENTIAL OTHER THAN 15-25 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. FRONTAL WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THEY
MAY COMMENCE DURING THE 4TH OF JULY CELEBRATIONS FOR SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY BILLINGS NORTHWARD. GFS SHOWS 850MB FLOW TO 40 KTS AND
FRONTAL PUSH MAY BE AIDED BY CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL
MESSAGE HERE IS EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO KICK IN WITH THE FROPA
SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING...PROBABLY LATE IN THE EVENING IN THE
BILLINGS AREA...AND OVERNIGHT DOWN SOUTH SUCH AS AT SHERIDAN. MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT SETTING UP A
COOL-FOR-JULY SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY ALSO BRING IN A MORE
PROBLEMATIC SURGE OF SMOKE AS WE TAP INTO AN AIRMASS FROM NW
CANADA.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MUCH COOLER SUNDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS TO PROVIDE A
DEFINITE BREAK FROM SUMMER HEAT. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
70S TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS AS DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE
PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS HEIGHTS TRY TO REBOUND MONDAY BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A
NORTHERLY PUSH AROUND A DEEP UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE HUDSON
BAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY OF
UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES SO MOUNTAINS SO OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR
HEADS INTO THE STATE AND THIS BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS CHANCES INCREASE
FOR WEDNESDAY AS A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS CATCH UP WITH THE COOLER
SURFACE AIR. WEDNESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.

PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HUDSON BOY LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWANWEAKENS.
THIS ALLOWS WESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME STRONGER AND UPSTREAM FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO SUPPORT WARMING. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OBSCURATIONS AROUND
5SM POSSIBLE DUE TO SMOKE AT KMLS LATE TONIGHT. BORSUM/SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 065/096 061/077 057/081 059/086 059/078 058/082
    00/U    11/U    23/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 052/092 056/095 054/077 050/082 053/087 053/079 052/082
    11/U    11/U    23/T    23/T    33/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 058/093 061/098 060/079 057/083 058/089 058/081 058/084
    00/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
MLS 060/091 064/098 061/077 055/080 058/087 059/080 058/082
    00/U    10/U    34/T    11/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 058/088 063/095 062/079 056/081 058/086 060/081 059/082
    00/U    11/U    24/T    21/B    12/T    34/T    43/T
BHK 056/086 060/092 059/074 052/076 053/082 056/078 055/077
    00/U    00/U    24/T    21/U    12/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 055/088 058/093 058/073 053/078 054/083 055/079 055/080
    01/B    20/U    23/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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