Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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472
FXUS65 KBYZ 060419
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
919 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

EXTENSIVE UPDATE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO WIND CROSSING THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CIPS/HRRR/SREF ALL
POINT TO WARNING STRENGTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDING
ALSO POINT TO DEEP MIXING TO 700MB RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 60 TO 70
MPH...BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION...BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS FROM HARLOWTON
TO BIG TIMBER TO RED LODGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. WINDS DO APPEAR TO SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY...BUT
EXTENT AND INTENSITY IS A BIT LESS CLEAR. RAISED INHERITED WINDS
TO REFLECT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PROGGED WINDS...TO AFFECT
WARNING STRENGTH WINDS. ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR REMAINING
WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS NORTHERN ZONES. KEPT EAST CARBON AND
AREAS EAST IN WITH HIGH WIND WATCH WATCH AT THIS TIME. ALSO
CONTINUED WITH INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON AND THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AT THIS TIME. GILSTAD

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

A WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY WHILE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER
YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER STILLWATER VALLEYS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THOSE
AREAS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A TWO PART
WIND EVENT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS TYPCIAL GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT. THE GAP WINDS WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING BUT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIMES RANGING FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. 850MB AND 700MB WINDS
RANGE IN THE 50-55KTS AND ARE LINKED NICELY ACROSS A LARGE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN LOCATIONS OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THE ONE DOWNSIDE TO A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT ARE
PRESSURE RISES. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MOTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND OUR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AROUND 7C/KM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH EVEN STEEPER RATES 7.5-8C/KM
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 700MB. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A HIGH WIND GUST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
WIDE-SPREAD WIND EVENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET A COUPLE
MORE MODEL RUNS ON THE SITUATION.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START ACROSS OUR WEST SATURDAY MORNING
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST FROM
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. AS FOR
PRECIP...WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THESE MAY HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE WINDS
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. HOOLEY


.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS
SETUP TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING 60
DEGREES TUESDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON MON...WED...AND
THURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CAUSE INTERMITTENT PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE PARK THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE YELLOWSTONE PARK AND GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE DIVIDE. WITH THIS IN MIND THOSE WEST OF BILLINGS CAN EXPECT A
FEW BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND WINDY NIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON...NYE...AND EXTENDING NORTH TO HARLOWTON.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE OF A RAIN OR
SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN LOCATIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DOBBS

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND VFR WILL DOMINATE THE TAF. WINDS BEGIN THEIR
INCREASE TONIGHT AT KLVM WITH 40 TO 50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY 06Z.
FURTHER INCREASES TO 55 KTS POSSIBLE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW. FURTHER
EAST...WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT KBIL AND KMLS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GILSTAD/DOBBS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/051 028/043 027/052 037/059 036/055 034/052 031/048
    01/N    10/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    12/W
LVM 035/047 027/040 029/049 039/056 037/053 035/049 031/046
    12/W    11/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/N    12/W
HDN 026/051 026/044 022/050 033/058 032/055 031/050 028/046
    01/N    10/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
MLS 030/053 026/040 021/046 030/054 030/052 027/046 025/041
    01/N    20/N    01/B    00/B    10/U    01/M    11/B
4BQ 026/052 027/039 023/045 031/056 031/054 029/047 024/044
    01/N    20/N    01/B    10/B    00/U    01/B    11/B
BHK 027/051 025/037 018/041 028/049 027/048 024/041 024/038
    01/N    32/J    01/B    11/B    10/U    11/M    21/E
SHR 020/051 026/038 020/049 030/057 030/055 028/049 026/046
    01/N    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
      FOR ZONES 28-41-63.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
      FOR ZONES 29>31-34-35-42-56.
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM MST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 32-33.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 36-37.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST SATURDAY THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 38-39-57-58.
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST SATURDAY THROUGH
      SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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