Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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263
FXUS65 KBYZ 272230
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
330 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

The first round of energy has pretty much cleared the area and
activity across the area is decreasing. Another around of snow
showers will move into mainly the mountains this evening as
a shortwave moves through the trough. Some of the activity could
drift onto the adjacent plains, but not expecting much
accumulation out of this. Tuesday will see another weak impulse
of energy move across, bring another chance for some like snow
showers to the area. None of the activity looks to produce little
accumulation.

The main concern in the short term is increasing winds Wednesday
into Thursday. As a low moves across the area the gradient will
tighten up along the foothills areas. As it does, expecting wind
gusts around Nye and Livingston ot increase to 50 to 60 mph. Local
guidance continues to show high confidence that a wind advisory
will be needed. At Big Timber, local guidance is showing that
there could be some issues, but the confidence is slightly lower.
Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Synoptic pattern from the models are in good agreement for the
extended period, but due to strong flow over the area tend to
diverge on details of ripples in the mean flow. This suggest some
caution is warranted on temps and PoPs despite overall
similarities.

An area of frontogenesis at 700 hPa looks to aid in the production
of light snow showers over parts of the region Thursday morning.
This frontogenesis should weaken during the afternoon, so
precipitation chances should decrease as the day goes on.

Afterwards, we see strong westerly/southwesterly flow carrying
periodic ripples through the rest of the extended period. Nothing
substantial or with significant impacts is projected into next
weekend, other than the possibility of some more wind episodes. A
stronger short wave is projected around Sunday to Monday, but
again with strong flow the progs may vary on the timing and
strength of this over the next several days.

Temperatures should rise to the 50s for Friday through the weekend
as mild, Pacific air moves into the region. Surface pressure
gradient pattern suggests strong gap winds are possible Thursday
night into Friday. RMS/Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Another round of MVFR/snow showers should affect the region after
00Z this evening mainly near KBIL-KSHR and west, and widespread
IFR ceilings may also redevelop and persist overnight across
southern Montana and north central Wyoming. Expect the mountains
to be obscured much of the time due to snow shower activity.
RMS/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 018/033 019/039 025/041 029/053 033/052 033/050 032/049
    22/J    12/W    33/W    21/B    12/W    33/W    22/W
LVM 016/027 015/034 024/039 028/050 038/049 035/049 033/044
    55/J    23/J    33/W    21/N    23/W    33/W    23/W
HDN 015/036 018/042 023/041 026/054 033/054 031/055 030/049
    11/B    22/W    32/W    21/B    12/W    23/W    22/W
MLS 019/038 022/040 022/041 028/055 030/052 030/053 030/047
    12/W    23/W    21/B    21/B    12/W    23/W    22/W
4BQ 019/039 021/041 023/041 026/056 028/056 033/060 030/047
    22/W    13/W    21/E    11/B    00/B    22/W    22/W
BHK 017/032 017/034 017/034 023/053 026/054 028/053 027/046
    12/J    23/J    20/B    11/B    11/B    23/W    22/W
SHR 015/032 013/037 020/039 022/052 029/054 028/056 025/049
    42/J    21/B    33/J    11/B    01/B    23/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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