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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261020
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY...FRI AND SAT

A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR REINFORCED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS OUR FORECAST LAST EVENING AND WE HAVE SINCE SEEN A
PERSISTENT ZONE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM HARLOWTON THROUGH BILLINGS TO
SHERIDAN WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW TWO MILES AT TIMES. THIS ZONE OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST A BIT THIS MORNING WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR
ALL INTENTIONAL PURPOSES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINICITY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS COMMON. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING THE MERCURY TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

THE BROAD FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC INTO FRIDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND PULLING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME WEAK DYNAMICS MOVING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
EASTERLY UPSLOPE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE
MAY SEE A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OR HIGHER FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME...BUT AREAS AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS
WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MORE THAN AN INCH IF THAT MUCH. AS A MATTER
OF FACT THE ECMWF HARDLY PRODUCES ANY QPF OVER OUR AREA...BUT I
HAVE TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE AREAS FROM BILLINGS WEST AND SOUTH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING THE DOOR TO
THE COLDER AIR REMAINS OPEN. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL A SOLID 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURE WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THOUGH STILL
AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL
BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT AT SNOWFALL. HAVE UPPED POPS
SLIGHTLY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND SHOW SOME GOOD QG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM. THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT THE FOOTHILLS LOOK TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF FLURRIES WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF THIS MORNING FROM
BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN AND WEST. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...AND MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OBSCURED. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AROUND MILES
CITY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 018 002/025 008/021 006/031 014/040 013/020 005/024
    3/J 00/B    23/S    00/U    01/U    43/J    21/B
LVM 019 904/027 003/020 902/030 012/039 009/020 905/025
    4/J 02/J    56/S    21/U    01/B    54/J    21/B
HDN 020 000/028 009/024 006/033 010/041 013/021 006/024
    2/J 00/B    22/S    00/U    00/U    33/J    21/B
MLS 014 902/026 007/022 008/032 013/040 012/020 005/023
    0/U 00/U    11/E    01/U    00/U    22/J    11/B
4BQ 016 902/026 008/024 005/031 010/040 013/022 005/022
    0/U 00/U    11/E    00/U    00/U    22/J    21/B
BHK 012 905/025 004/022 006/030 011/039 010/021 001/019
    0/U 00/U    00/B    11/B    00/U    22/J    11/B
SHR 014 903/023 006/018 000/025 004/034 010/019 001/019
    4/J 00/U    13/S    00/U    00/U    33/J    31/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS