Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270920
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
320 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A
A DEEP TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WITH TWO VORT MAXES...ONE CENTERED OVER OREGON AND THE
SECOND MOVING INTO NEVADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS...LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THE FAR EAST. AS A RESULT...A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS WILL EXIST TODAY RANGING FROM 60S
WEST TO THE LOWER 90S EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM YELLOWSTONE COUNTY
EASTWARD AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF
THE STATE. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE FROM CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER
COUNTIES EASTWARD BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION TO THE GRIDS.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW
HUMIDITIES...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM RISK AND STRONG WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS WHERE A REG FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MILES CITY-BILLINGS-
LIVINGSTON LINE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
AND NORTH OF BILLINGS.

LASTLY...850MB WINDS TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE AROUND
45-50KTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS 35-40KT WINDS FOR MILES CITY AND
BAKER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAINLY DRY EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE MAINTAINING GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS. WEAK INTRUSION OF
MONSOONAL FLOW INTRODUCES SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWED A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING BUT
WASHING OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF KBIL
THIS MORNING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF KBIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 25 TO
35KT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 051/075 052/085 057/092 060/094 061/090 061/090
    6/T 42/W    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 066 048/074 045/083 051/089 053/092 054/089 055/088
    6/T 43/T    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T
HDN 082 051/076 051/087 055/094 058/096 059/092 059/091
    5/T 62/W    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 087 055/072 052/086 058/093 061/095 061/092 061/089
    3/T 83/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 092 053/074 051/086 056/093 060/095 061/093 060/089
    3/T 42/W    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 093 056/071 050/084 055/090 057/092 058/090 058/086
    4/T 73/T    21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 083 047/074 045/083 053/091 055/093 056/091 056/088
    3/T 32/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
     HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
      TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
      TONIGHT FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.