Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 161527
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
927 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Zonal flow with above normal heights and downslope gradients will
result in a mild day today with most lower elevations getting into
the lower 70s. Gusty SW-W winds will persist along the western
foothills with gusts mainly 30-45 mph. All of this covered well in
the current forecast and have made only minor changes to temps,
winds and sky cover. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue...

Slightly northwest flow will back to zonal this afternoon. This
will translate to a mild and dry weather pattern. This pattern
also spells periods of strong winds along the western foothills.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s both today and
Tuesday. Both days will be breezy, especially in the afternoon, as
850mb winds of 20-25kts mix down.

The main concern for the short term forecast will be wind over
the western foothills. A lee trough will remain anchored in place
through the period and this will mean winds will stay up from
Livingston to Nye. The period of strongest wind potential looks to
be Tuesday night, as a strong shortwave trough swings across
southern Canada and tightens up the surface trough along the east
slopes. Bumped winds up for this period as confidence growing of a
potential Advisory event. Winds should also gust from Big Timber
to Harlow during this period, but the gradient looks to orientate
itself more favorable for the Livingston to Nye locations. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Minimal changes again for the long term period, as models remain
consistent.

Unseasonably warm and generally dry conditions will
prevail to start the period under mainly zonal flow. Breezy
conditions will prevail as expected with this pattern. A trof and
associated cold front will cross the region late Friday into
Saturday, bringing a a chance for scattered precip, but system
continues to trend toward a lesser event than previous runs
indicated, with more of glancing shot with each successive models
run. COntinued with inherited pops. Weak upper ridging returns
late Saturday into Sunday, bringing dry weather and warmer air
back to the region.

AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy conditions this afternoon and evening at LVM and BIL. At
MLS gusty winds should taper off by evening. VFR conditions and
clear skies expected through the TAF period. Walsh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 045/075 046/069 045/075 048/069 041/058 041/063
    0/N 00/N    00/B    00/U    11/B    21/B    01/B
LVM 071 042/074 046/070 043/075 044/065 036/054 038/060
    0/N 00/N    00/N    00/N    13/W    42/W    11/N
HDN 074 038/076 044/071 042/078 043/073 039/060 037/065
    0/U 00/N    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
MLS 073 041/076 044/067 042/077 043/074 040/059 038/063
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
4BQ 072 040/077 042/067 041/077 043/075 040/059 037/064
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B
BHK 071 039/076 041/064 040/078 042/075 039/058 036/062
    0/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    10/N
SHR 072 034/076 039/070 039/077 040/074 036/058 034/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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