Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 272034
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN ID. SHORTWAVE IN
EASTERN MT HAS ALLOWED FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES THIS AFTN. WEAK JET STREAK LIFTING OUT
OF THE SW HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL PARTS
INCLUDING AT BILLINGS AT 2PM. FURTHER WEST...WE ARE SEEING
ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SOUTHEAST ID MOVING TOWARD OUR
WESTERN AREAS. FAIRLY COMPLEX PICTURE BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF THE
FORECAST IS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION
INTO FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FINALLY MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA.
UPSLOPE AREAS OF OUR SOUTH WILL SEE ENHANCED PCPN AS FLOW TURNS
NORTHERLY TOMORROW. COULD SEE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF PCPN IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH WILL KEEP FLOWS UP ON THE GOOSE CREEKS AS
WELL AS THE TONGUE/POWDER RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH PCPN FOR AN ADDITIONAL FLOOD RISK BUT STILL NEED TO BE
AWARE IN THESE AREAS.

CANADIAN SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A
SHIFT TO NE-E WINDS AND DRYING/STABILIZING ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW THIS OCCURRING A BIT FASTER AS UPPER TROF EXITS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN A LITTLE SOONER AND REMOVED
TS ACROSS ALL BUT OUR SW PARTS ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WEST FRI NIGHT PER WEAK PACIFIC
ENERGY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AS HEIGHTS RISE TO THE MID 570S
WITH FLAT RIDGING OVER THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AGAIN TOMORROW...THEN
MOSTLY 60S ON FRIDAY AS WE DRAW IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NEXT
UPPER TROUGH OF INTEREST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...ANY RIDGING OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK WITH OVERALL FLAT FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
PIECES OF ENERGY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH LATE MAY
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CONTINUED RISK OF
DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. NOTHING ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT...SO
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. AIRMASS DOES
WARM...SO TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN A CLIMB INTO THE 80S THIS
WEEKEND WHICH WILL LAST INTO MONDAY.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS SETTING
UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS MAIN
ENERGY/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY...MODELS ADVERTISE GOOD INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. IF THESE CONDITIONS LOOK SAME IN
COMING DAYS...WILL NEED TO BEGIN ADVERTISING AS POTENTIALLY OUR
FIRST ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT OF THE SEASON. CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
COOL CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
ANTICIPATE FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/070 048/066 048/078 053/082 055/082 053/076 051/066
    46/T    63/W    22/T    22/T    24/T    44/T    43/T
LVM 044/064 045/065 047/074 049/076 049/075 047/071 045/064
    56/T    64/T    23/T    33/T    35/T    54/T    44/T
HDN 049/073 048/068 046/080 052/084 055/086 053/078 051/069
    35/T    64/W    22/T    22/T    24/T    44/T    43/T
MLS 052/075 048/066 047/077 053/081 057/084 056/076 053/068
    33/T    42/W    12/T    33/T    24/T    44/T    44/T
4BQ 050/072 050/065 046/074 053/080 057/084 056/076 053/070
    35/T    54/W    12/T    22/T    24/T    45/T    53/T
BHK 049/073 045/063 041/068 047/077 053/082 053/074 050/068
    53/T    42/W    02/T    33/T    24/T    44/T    44/T
SHR 046/069 046/062 044/074 049/078 051/081 050/075 049/067
    36/T    76/W    22/T    22/T    24/T    44/T    43/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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