Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
302 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Reinforcing shot of cooler air was sweeping through the forecast
area early this morning. This will keep high temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s today. Low level upslope flow will develop by
late morning and combine with cyclonic flow aloft and increasing
atmospheric moisture to generate a few showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will be up today in cold air advection and with 850mb winds
at 30kts. Dewpoints were much higher early this morning compared
to yesterday, and thus fire weather concerns should be lessened.
PoPs will be confined to the higher terrain and foothills. PoPs
will linger into the overnight hours as weak energy sinks into
southern Montana. Freezing levels fall to around 9 thousand feet
and there is a possibility of some showers over the highest
elevations overnight.

Thursday will be another unseasonably cool day with a surface
high setting right over southern Montana and with the coldest
700mb temperatures over the eastern part of the state. Moisture
availability will be fairly high at 700mb, so would expect cumulus
development to limit the suns heat from warming things too much.
Will keep highs around 70 degrees. Winds will be lighter. Will
mainly confine precip chances to the higher terrain where models
were keeping the best cape. Energy will rotate around the trough
in place over the northern Rockies and swing into northeast
Wyoming Thursday night. Have raised PoPs over southeast Montana
due to this. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Minimal changes for the extended forecast period. A broad trof
remains in place over the region Friday...with what appears to be
a reasonably potent shortwave progged into the region...with
reinforcing shot of cold air. Chances for precip with this wave
looks a bit better than in previous runs...but available moisture
still a bit only increased to scattered type pops.
Temps look much cooler for Friday in latest guidance...which jives
well with shot of cooler air and greater cloud cover. Best
chances should still be over the higher terrain...but should
spread into plains as well.

Shortwave ridging in generally zonal flow takes over by Saturday
as the trof shifts east. The zonal flow remains in place through
the weekend...lending downslope flow to warm temps into mid 80s
Saturday...and 90s for Sunday. Models diverge significantly from
this point on. Have chosen to continue with warm and generally
dry conditions for the remainder of the forecast period...leading to
increased fire concerns. That said...if ECMWF were to pan out, a
much wetter and cooler period is possible. AAG



Gusty northerly winds...gusting 20 to 30 kts...are expected
across much of the region again today. Isold thunderstorms are
possible over area mountains and nearby foothills regions
today. Some activity may spread across southern most zones
overnight tonight. Occasional mountain obscurations are possible
with storms...and localized mvfr conditions are possible with
activity over lower elevations. Otherwise vfr conditions are
expected to prevail. AAG



    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 068 048/071 050/071 050/085 056/091 056/086 057/086
    1/B 11/B    13/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 066 041/068 041/070 044/084 049/089 048/086 048/086
    2/T 22/W    13/T    11/U    11/U    11/B    11/U
HDN 070 046/073 048/074 047/086 055/092 054/088 055/087
    1/B 11/B    13/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 068 047/073 051/074 051/085 056/092 057/087 058/088
    1/N 11/B    23/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 069 046/070 049/072 049/082 055/091 057/088 058/088
    1/B 11/B    33/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 066 044/070 047/072 048/080 052/089 054/085 055/086
    1/N 11/B    33/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 069 044/069 045/070 045/082 051/090 051/087 053/088
    1/B 23/T    33/T    31/U    11/U    11/U    11/U




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