Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 301535
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
935 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH
THIS MORNINGS UPDATE. UPPER LOW OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOME ENERGY AND CLOUDS NORTHWEST ACROSS
WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS IS BATTLING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT ARE MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES. A COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE OCCURRING AS WELL ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THESE AREAS THAT MAY SEE A BIT OF SUN.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE COUNTERACTED A BIT
BETTER WITH RISING HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WAS NOT CASE
ON FRIDAY. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BIG
HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. ALL FOOTHILLS WILL BE
FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED...INCLUDING KSHR AND KLVM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    6/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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