Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 250256
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
856 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017
No significant adjustments to mention. Forecast in good shape.
Cold front on target to reach Billings about 6 am tomorrow. BT
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...
Thin high clouds were spilling over the ridge into the area this
afternoon. Baroclinic leaf associated with upper trough along the
Pacific Coast, was seen on satellite imagery approaching the
region. System`s cold front was seen moving E through the Pacific
NW. The trough will approach the area tonight and an upper jet
will bring right-rear quadrant divergence to the area on Saturday.
Models bring the cold front into the west after 06Z tonight,
which will cut off any gusty gap winds. Went with chance PoPs over
and near the western mountains beginning at 09Z. The front moves
through the region during Sat., with model differences in QPF
fields. The NAEFS table showed abnormally high precipitable waters
over the area Sat. afternoon and evening, so blended in higher
QPF`s from the GFS into the forecast. Spread chance PoPs E
through the central zones through 18Z, then had them over the rest
of the area Sat. afternoon. Went with likely PoPs over the SW
mountains, NE Bighorns and foothills. The flow will turn northerly
through 700 mb, which will favor certain higher elevation areas.
Added isolated thunder to the west Sat. afternoon with lifted
indices around zero degrees C.
The upper trough will cross the area Sat. night through Sunday
while splitting. The 700 mb front will move through the SE zones
Sat. night bringing the likelihood of precipitation to that area.
Continued likely PoPs in the SW mountains, NE Bighorns and
foothills, with chance PoPs elsewhere. The area will dry out from
W to E late Sat. night through Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon
and evening will be dry under the next ridge, then chances for
rain/snow showers will move into the W again under diffluence
from the next Pacific trough.
Temperatures reached the 60s in many areas this afternoon. Highs
will be in the 50s behind the front on Sat., with some 60s
possible over the E ahead of the front. On Sun., highs will be
from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Arthur
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
A progressive spring weather pattern will continue through the
extended period with chances for precipitation about every other
day. None of the precipitation events individually look terribly
heavy, but combined a few places could see over an inch of
precipitation by next weekend. Areas from Rosebud county east look
to be the most favored for this eventuality. While there is not a
lot of cold air associated with any of these systems, there is
the potential for some snow wet snow accumulations in the
foothills and higher hilltops across the plains, as well as the
mountains. Systems arrive Monday night, then again Thursday and
Saturday. Highs look to stay in the 50s and 60s with lows in the
30s through the period. Chambers
Gusty winds will continue at KLVM through much of the night.
Expect increasing cloud cover from west to east through the
night, with chances for rain and mountain snow early Saturday
morning along with widespread mountain obscurations. Localized
MVFR conditions are possible as this disturbance crosses the
region Saturday. AAG
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
BIL 044/056 036/057 038/060 041/053 036/059 039/057 037/050
05/W 31/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 23/W 53/W
LVM 038/051 030/055 034/055 032/051 032/057 036/054 032/049
35/W 51/B 25/W 84/O 11/B 36/W 43/W
HDN 040/056 033/060 035/063 039/055 034/061 036/060 037/052
05/W 31/B 02/W 45/R 21/B 12/W 54/W
MLS 040/060 038/061 037/065 041/055 036/060 038/062 037/053
03/W 21/B 01/B 36/R 41/B 11/B 33/W
4BQ 038/062 038/058 036/063 038/054 036/058 036/060 036/051
02/W 62/W 01/B 46/R 51/U 11/B 54/W
BHK 036/062 037/059 033/062 036/054 035/057 034/059 035/050
02/W 53/W 01/B 37/R 62/W 11/B 23/W
SHR 037/055 033/055 032/059 036/051 033/059 035/059 035/049
05/W 72/W 02/W 55/R 31/U 12/W 55/W