Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 271502
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
902 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Current forecast looks to be in good shape. No updates are planned
this morning. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Ridge axis stretches from northern Utah to central Saskatchewan
this morning. Shortwave energy moving across west central Canada
will flatten this ridge some today and allow a cold front to move
through the forecast area late tonight. Ahead of this front, 850mb
temperatures will rise to around 26c over central zones. Thus,
high temperatures will be very warm today with highs in the 80s.
This will be around 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Cooler
temperatures can be expected Wednesday after the frontal passage
late tonight. That being said, the airmass will be quickly
modifying in a dry airmass and highs will only be 5-10 degrees
cooler than Tuesday, keeping highs in the 70s, which is still
above seasonal averages. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Made a few changes this morning...as models support slightly
slower timing of Pacific trof shifting east. The trof is also
progged to dig a bit further south. Expect to see daytime
temperatures above seasonal average...with highs in the 70s to
around 80 degrees through Saturday. Cooler temperatures are
expected after Sunday. Temps will drop below normal for for the
beginning of next week.

Mainly dry conditions will prevail in the lower elevations to end
the work week. Southwest flow begins to push into the region from
the west on Thursday...but appears to amplify a bit more with trof
digging a little further south. A stronger disturbance...with tap
to monsoon-like flow will cross the region Thursday evening/night.
Moisture...strength of wave...and path of energy across the
region...look more favorable for bringing precip across southern
and into eastern zones...so introduced slight pops across those
areas. As the trof pushes east...a cold front shifts through the
area Saturday evening through Sunday morning...spreading stronger
shower and thunder potential across the region Saturday night into
Sunday. The trof appears to broaden at this point and models
diverge on how energy cross the region. Models do
agree...however...on broad trof bringing unsettled and
unseasonably cool weather across the region through the remainder
of the extended period. Continued uncertainty keep necessitate
continued broadbrush type pops to end the period. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across all routes today...with no
significant aviation impacts expected. RMS/Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 052/076 052/080 054/078 053/075 051/066 044/057
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 084 045/075 045/078 050/077 048/072 045/063 039/053
    0/U 00/U    01/B    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 084 050/079 049/080 052/078 051/076 050/068 045/059
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    12/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 084 050/078 051/081 054/079 054/078 053/069 046/061
    0/U 00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U    33/T    33/T
4BQ 083 051/080 053/082 054/079 053/077 053/069 046/061
    0/U 00/U    01/U    21/B    11/U    22/T    33/T
BHK 080 047/076 048/076 051/076 050/074 051/068 045/061
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/W    11/U    33/T    33/T
SHR 084 044/079 046/080 051/078 049/076 049/067 043/059
    0/U 00/U    01/B    21/B    11/B    33/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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