Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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396
FXUS65 KBYZ 260856
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
256 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Warmer conditions can be expected for today and Thursday as
ridging builds back over the Northern Rockies. Temps will not be
as warm as previously seen, with monsoonal moisture progged to
increase over across the area. Weak disturbances will move
through the flow, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. Best chances will continue to be in the high terrain.
There will be an improved chance for activity late this evening
through early Thursday from Billings eastward as LLJ develops over
the region. Thursday appears to be the best day for more
widespread precip as a more significant shortwave pushes into the
region. Shortwave combines with increase southeasterly sfc flow,
and increased instability to allow for a chance of strong
thunderstorms as well.

Temperatures will range from the 80s to lower 90s today and
Thursday. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...


No changes to the going weather pattern over the next week. Mean
trof over the Eastern U.S. with a mean Ridge over the west. The
latency of the western ridge has allowed it to pull in plenty of
monsoonal moisture and will progressively move more of this into
our area until a pattern change to a downslope or northwesterly
flow arrives to cut it off, which is not in the scope of this
forecast. Thus will continue to see plenty of afternoon and
evening cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
each day to take the edge off of high temperatures. Mean wind
direction through the period will be easterly which is also
favorable for convection as it draws low level plains moisture
into the area. Not everyone will see precipitation from this
activity but those that do could get a quick quarter of an inch
from storms with precipitable water values of 0.75 to 1.25 inches
over the area through the period. Highs across the region will be
around 90 degrees each day (near seasonal levels), +/- 5 degrees.
Chambers
&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours, developing western high
terrain and shifting east over time. Local MVFR visibility and
gusty winds can be expected with precipitation. Areas of smoke
will obscure vision in the vicinity of area wildfires. Chambers
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 065/089 064/091 065/091 064/091 066/091 066/091
    2/T 23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    21/U    22/T
LVM 084 057/085 056/084 057/087 057/088 059/086 058/087
    2/T 33/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 090 062/091 063/093 066/093 065/092 067/093 067/093
    2/T 23/T    32/T    21/U    22/T    21/U    22/T
MLS 091 069/092 068/093 068/093 068/093 068/093 069/095
    1/U 33/T    42/T    21/U    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 088 065/089 065/090 065/092 065/090 066/090 065/091
    1/B 33/T    52/T    21/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 088 063/089 064/088 065/090 064/088 065/088 065/091
    1/U 22/T    33/T    30/U    21/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 084 058/086 058/087 061/087 060/087 061/085 061/087
    4/T 33/T    43/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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