Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 202232
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
332 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

The pressure gradient is starting to decrease and wind gusts are
starting to back off. Until a cold front that is making it way
through northern Montana makes its way down, wind gusts will
remain 50 to 60 mph around Livingston, Big Timber, and Nye. Given
that the High Wind Warning goes until 6 PM which will be around
the time the front should be arriving, will keep the Warning going
until the expiration time.

Tonight as the cold front drops down into the area, rain quickly
turning over to snow as the cold air works in. The GFS is still
going with much higher QPF from Ryegate through Billings and down
to Hardin. The NAM and ECMWF as well as the HREF, SREF, and NSSL
WRF are all suggesting around a quarter of an inch. Much of the
area favored is the higher hills south and east of Billings. The
GFS is going west of Billings and is higher between a half and
three quarters of an inch. The operational model is still on the
higher end of the ensemble envelope. Even though the GFS has been
showing an increasing trend in the QPF, given that the majority of
the other models and ensemble members are much lower, have not
trended towards the operational GFS solution. Most locations will
see around an half inch to and inch and a half. Given that the
area has been warm for a while, roads should stay clear with most
of the accumulation being on grassy and elevated surfaces.

The cold front will retreat during the morning tomorrow.
Temperatures will remain cooler tomorrow with highs in the 40s.
Wednesday will be much warmer as ridging builds back into the
area. With the ridging will some increasing winds along the
foothills from Livingston to Nye again. Winds will start to
increase Tuesday night and then gusts will be to 50 mph by
Wednesday morning. Some moisture and energy will move under the
ridge Wednesday, bringing a slight chance of precip to the higher
elevations. Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Extended models are in good agreement Thanksgiving Day through
next weekend. Overall, a mild and windy pattern will continue.
High pressure ridge axis will be over the forecast area on
Thanksgiving and this will be the warmest day through the period.
Models are coming in even warmer so we bumped temperatures a few
more degrees into the middle 60s for many locations and these
readings will be around record highs for the date.

Another Pacific front and strong upper wave move across the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning bringing another
round of rain and snow showers along with cooler temperatures for
Friday. Pressure gradients will tighten once again along the
Beartooth Foothills Thursday and Thursday night bringing another
period of very strong winds to the Livingston and Nye areas.

High pressure ridging builds back again late Friday through next
weekend resulting in mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures
with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Hooley

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will cross the region this evening and overnight.
Precipitation will start as rain across the lower elevations and
change to snow this evening. Some snow accumulations are possible
along a Harlowton- Billings-Sheridan corridor. VFR conditions will
prevail through this afternoon. However, reduced visibilities and
ceilings can be expected this evening through the overnight hours
with MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing during this time. The
mountains will be obscured through tonight. Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/041 038/064 044/065 042/053 032/049 032/052 033/052
    81/B    11/N    00/B    43/W    00/B    10/B    01/B
LVM 030/048 042/060 045/061 039/049 030/047 033/051 033/049
    72/W    41/N    10/N    42/W    11/B    11/B    02/W
HDN 026/040 033/064 040/067 040/055 029/050 029/054 030/053
    81/B    11/B    00/B    43/W    00/U    10/B    01/B
MLS 019/033 027/061 041/065 041/053 028/045 026/048 030/049
    40/B    11/N    00/B    32/W    00/U    10/B    00/B
4BQ 022/037 031/063 041/068 042/055 029/048 027/052 030/053
    61/B    11/N    00/B    23/W    00/U    00/B    00/B
BHK 013/030 022/060 038/065 040/052 026/042 025/045 025/047
    20/U    11/N    00/B    22/W    00/U    10/B    00/B
SHR 027/042 032/063 037/066 039/052 026/050 028/054 030/053
    72/J    11/B    00/B    13/W    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM MST this evening FOR
      ZONES 41-65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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