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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 261640
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENT THINKING HERE ON THE DAY SHIFT IS WE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLY LESS MIXING PER BUFKIT. WE
MAY ALSO SEE SOME LEE SIDE CIRRUS NOT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT
SAID...WE HAVE LOW HANGING FRUIT FOR THE RECORD HIGHS AND I WILL
NOT BE LOWERING CURRENT FORECASTS THAT MUCH...SO RECORD HIGHS
STILL LOOK LIKE SLAM DUNKS. WINDS WILL FLIRT OCCASIONALLY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER...BUT WITH WARM
TEMPS PREVENTING TRUE GAP FLOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY.
GIVEN HOW MUCH WE OVERACHIEVED WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM LESS THAN 10 DEGREES FROM THE
RECORDS...BOTH LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS WILL SEE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. CURRENT RECORDS ARE 56 FOR LIVINGSTON AND 54
FOR BILLINGS...WHILE THE FORECAST IS 64 DEGREES FOR BOTH. SHERIDAN
WILL ALSO SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AROUND 61 DEGREES. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MOS TRENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR TUESDAY...SO HAVE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN FOR TUESDAY. THE POSSIBILITY IS THAT WITH
A LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AND
LIMIT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN...RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WYOMING. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY GLANCING THE AREA...WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ANY WHERE ELSE. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH LATEST ECMWF BRINGING BACK THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE SOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR INTRUSION FROM A FEW DAYS
AGO.

CALIFORNIA SYSTEM CONTINUE ON A TRACK TO GRAZE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THE HEALS OF THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY BRINGING COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A BIT MORE WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN OFF OF RECORD HIGHS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH LOWER TO
MID 40S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED ENERGY WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED THAT WOULD SUGGEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SO KEPT DRY FORECAST IN TACT.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DIVERGE PAST FRIDAY.
MODELS BOTH DEVELOP AN INITIAL RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
FRIDAY WHICH VEERS THE UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWS A
SHORTWAVE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME COLDER AIR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT. BY MID DAY SATURDAY THE GFS HAS
CRASHED DOWN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS A WARM AND WINDY DOWNSLOPE
PATTERN FOR THE AREA THAT LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS A WEST COAST RIDGE AND AMPLIFIED
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR TO
DROP INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. THIS IS A SOLUTION
THAT WAS ADVERTISED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BUT WHICH WAS OVERTAKEN
BY A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ADDED LOW/CLIMO TYPE POPS IN A BROADBRUSH FASHION FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES TOWARD
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO GET IN BETWEEN THE WARM/DRY GFS
AND THE COLD/SNOWY EC SOLUTIONS. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY SW-W WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT 35-45 KT GUSTS AT KLVM. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 039/064 039/052 029/046 029/047 025/037 025/043
    0/N 00/U    12/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
LVM 064 041/060 038/049 028/046 029/045 024/040 026/045
    0/N 00/N    32/W    01/B    10/U    22/O    22/O
HDN 056 031/054 033/048 025/044 026/044 021/035 020/042
    0/B 00/U    02/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
MLS 055 031/056 033/043 025/042 026/042 019/031 020/039
    0/B 00/U    01/B    10/B    11/B    22/S    22/S
4BQ 057 031/059 033/047 024/044 025/044 021/034 020/042
    0/B 00/U    01/B    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O
BHK 053 030/056 031/042 025/039 024/039 016/028 017/036
    0/B 00/U    01/B    00/B    01/B    22/S    22/S
SHR 060 030/057 030/047 022/042 022/043 020/036 020/042
    0/U 00/U    12/W    11/B    11/U    22/S    22/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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