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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042237
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
337 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

OVERALL THEME IS FOR CONTINUED WARMING AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BE UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES UNDER THE STRONGEST DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHALLENGES IN THIS PATTERN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MODELS KEEP WANTING TO PUSH THE COLD AIR
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 4C OVERNIGHT OVER THE
EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THE VERY
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ACTUALLY PUSH IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOWER 50S IN PLACES. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE EAST AS A COLDER AIR TRIES TO
DIVE SOUTH INTO MONTANA BEHIND A SHORTWAVE PUSH OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING TONIGHT FOR WEAK
ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK RETURNS WERE
ALREADY SHOWING UP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT FREEZING RAIN RISK YET ANOTHER
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...EXPECT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE WILL CRUISE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
INTO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS MENTIONED ABOVE. OVER
RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN. GIVEN THAT LINGERING
SNOW COVER MAY BE CAUSING THE MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL WARMING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE...WILL KEEP A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
ROUNDUP TO HARDIN TO SHERIDAN AND AREAS EAST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
RECIEVE AN IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MOISTURE WENDESAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS SHOULD STILL GET NEARLY A FOOT FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME WINDS AT
700MB REACHING 60KTS OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE AT LIVINGSTON HAS PICKED UP ON THIS AND
PRODUCING NEAR ADVISORY WINDS THERE. A LEE TROUGH DOES FORM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DOES NOT GET TREMENDOUSLY TIGHT...WITH A
GRADIENT DIFFERENCE OF 12MB FROM IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN. NOT
SURE HOW MUCH STABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS THE PARK WILL BE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUMPED WINDS UP TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT KEPT THEM BELOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

SHORTWAVES IN NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS FORECASTS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BE STRONGER AND
FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY.

ATTENTION THIS WEEKEND THEN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. THE BIGGEST CHANGE I MADE FOR THE WEEKEND WAS TO INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL HELP INCREASE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
WEST...INDUCING A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL CAUSE SW WINDS TO BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER DOWN TOWARDS NYE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT ROLL THROUGH THE
REGION...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO
PRODUCE FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
40S AND 50S.

LAST THING TO MENTION IS THAT WITH SEVERAL MILD DAYS IN THE
FORECAST...MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATION SNOW WILL MELT AND ICE ON
AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BREAK UP. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
ICE JAMS OR ICE FLOWS. BE CAUTIOUS IF YOU PLAN TO BE AROUND THE
RIVERS. STC

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY
FOG OR LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ROUTES...INCLUDING NEAR
KMLS AND KBHK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR WINDS...SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING KLVM WITH
GUSTS OVER 35 KTS. STC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/050 033/050 027/041 026/052 034/058 038/052 029/047
    21/N    44/W    32/W    11/U    11/N    22/W    22/W
LVM 028/049 036/052 028/045 025/049 032/057 037/053 027/044
    32/W    36/W    33/W    21/U    11/N    22/W    22/W
HDN 025/049 031/050 025/041 023/052 031/058 035/056 029/049
    20/B    44/W    32/W    11/U    01/B    12/W    11/B
MLS 019/045 026/041 018/032 017/047 032/054 036/052 029/047
    20/B    34/W    22/J    11/B    11/B    12/W    11/B
4BQ 020/046 027/048 022/038 022/049 031/059 035/056 029/048
    20/B    24/W    32/W    11/B    00/B    12/W    11/B
BHK 014/044 025/040 015/028 014/041 028/051 030/048 025/043
    20/B    23/W    22/J    11/B    01/B    12/W    11/B
SHR 023/050 031/054 026/045 022/052 030/061 033/056 027/046
    20/B    13/W    43/W    10/U    11/B    22/W    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS