Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 290353
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
953 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING AS WEAK VERTICAL MOTIONS MOVES IN FROM
NORTHERN MONTANA AND LOW LEVEL COOLING ALLOWS WEAK INVERSION TO
WEAKEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH CERTAINLY LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALLOWED
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AND CANCELLED HIGH WIND WARNINGS. HUMIDITY
RECOVER WILL BE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPDATE SENT. BORSUM

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK WITH FRONT IN WEST...BUT SOME
MARGINAL CAPE IN EASTERN SECTIONS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG NORTHERN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTY LINES. CONVECTIVE RELATED
GUSTS COULD HIT 60-70 MPH LOCALLY. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED 30 TO
NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN POST FRONTAL
AREAS. SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS BEHIND FRONT 10-15 DEGREES. WE WILL
TRY TO KEEP UP WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS REPORTS AS WE GET
THEM...AND SUMMARIZE SOMETHING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS REGION...WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A DROP
IN WINDS BY 03-06Z. WINDS MAY HANG ON LONGER IN THE FAR EAST AS
ADVERTISED BY OUR HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WHICH GOES UNTIL 3 AM.

MODEST RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER OUR REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO GENERATE MUCH MORE
THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOTHING LIKE TODAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A BIT MONDAY FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY.
BT



.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. RIDGE MONDAY LINGERS
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING. CERTAINLY SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF CONCERN. THE TUESDAY EVENING SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A CHANGE TO A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN. THIS BRINGS IN A
COOLER AND UNSETTLED REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING FOR AT LEAST SOME
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT ARE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OVER SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS NORTH OF
BILLINGS. AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS...INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK MAY SEE
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 042/071 045/072 041/055 033/050 030/053 033/058
    10/B    00/B    01/B    32/W    22/W    22/W    21/B
LVM 035/063 038/069 042/068 035/048 026/046 024/049 028/053
    10/U    00/B    02/W    43/W    23/W    32/W    21/B
HDN 037/068 037/073 039/076 040/057 032/052 029/054 032/059
    10/U    00/B    01/B    32/W    23/W    22/W    11/B
MLS 038/065 039/069 041/076 042/057 033/050 030/053 033/060
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
4BQ 037/065 036/070 039/077 040/056 032/050 028/052 029/061
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    22/W    22/W    11/B
BHK 035/060 035/066 038/074 040/054 030/047 026/049 030/057
    30/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    12/W    22/W    11/B
SHR 037/062 034/068 037/075 036/051 028/048 026/050 028/057
    10/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/W    22/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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