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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271556
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
856 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A
VERY COLD START THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AS A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
DOWNSLOPING WILL NOT BE STRONG...LATE FEBRUARY SUN SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST AREAS WHICH IS
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. HIGHS FOR TODAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS  WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE GENERATE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH...MAYBE TWO...OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH REMAINDER
THE SHORT TERM. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A WARMING TREND FROM COLD SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW
AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A 1038MB SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
QUICK SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. GFS IS THE COLDEST MODEL AT THIS POINT
AND HOLDS COLD AIR IN A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE EVENT IS 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT. CIPS ANALOGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION
ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF A ROUNDUP TO ASHLAND
LINE...WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN AREAS INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AND NYE VICINITIES. SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO A DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NOT AS MUCH
COLD AIR. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSHR TO
KMLS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LESSER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
FRON WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND
VIS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KBIL. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025 008/021 005/031 015/039 008/010 903/025 015/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B
LVM 027 003/019 903/029 013/038 004/011 909/026 015/038
    2/J 55/J    20/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 028 008/024 004/034 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/040
    0/B 22/J    00/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B
MLS 026 006/022 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/040
    0/U 11/E    00/B    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B
4BQ 026 007/023 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/040
    0/U 11/E    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B
BHK 025 004/021 004/027 011/036 006/012 903/018 006/037
    0/U 00/B    11/B    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B
SHR 022 004/018 901/027 007/034 007/007 910/018 007/038
    0/U 13/J    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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