Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 311501
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO SLIGHTLY
ADJUST HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN WAVE IS
TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS KEEPING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING THIS
MORNING. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE BETTER
THAN EXPECTED WITH THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED.

CHURCH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS. A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS WELL KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE...JET MAX ON THE FRONT END OF
BROADER TROUGH IS WEAKER THAN THE ONE ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SOME OF THE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY SOUTH IN NW WYOMING. ONLY THE RAP HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS SO FAR WITH THE GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL OVERPLAYING
THE PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP AS THE COLD POOL MOVES OVER US THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THIS
SIDE OF THE STATELINE BY AFTERNOON AS JET STREAM BUCKLES NORTH
WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SO HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND HIT THE SE SECTION
HARDEST LATE MORNING TO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AFFECTS MAINLY OUR WESTERN TERRAIN BEFORE
SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECASTS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF AN ISSUE...AND LITTLE HAS
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE TIMING PROBLEMS HAVE
NECESSITATED A MORE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...STARTING OFF QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH ZONAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA DIGS
SOUTH AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST OVER MONTANA. A COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED POPS COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BROAD TROF REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH KEEPS KEEPS SLIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL. PERSISTENCE OF
TROF WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LOCAL MVFR AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 051/070 050/078 054/077 050/069 049/069 050/074
    3/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 068 044/070 043/079 046/077 043/068 044/069 045/076
    3/T 42/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T
HDN 072 051/072 050/080 053/081 051/072 051/073 050/077
    2/T 32/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 074 052/074 052/079 054/080 053/071 053/072 052/075
    2/T 12/T    00/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 071 051/071 051/080 053/083 052/072 051/073 051/076
    4/T 23/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 072 050/072 048/077 051/080 050/073 049/070 049/073
    4/T 12/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 068 047/069 046/080 050/083 049/073 048/075 048/078
    5/T 33/T    00/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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