Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 270139
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
739 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
AS WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY IN
THE 20S AND 30S. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. BY LATE EVENING WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER FOR A VERY
NICE DAY TO BE OUTDOORS. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS BEHIND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE IS HELPING TO MIX A
RESPECTABLE NORTHWEST WIND. KMLS AND KBHK CONTINUE TO GUST FROM 35
TO 45 MPH. RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS AT KJDN AND KMLS
STAYING AROUND 40F. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS...THESE RH VALUES IN
THE MID 20S ARE HELPING TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY.

FOR SUNDAY...INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
DIMINISHES...AND THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS BUILDING IN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A ZERO POP FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE STARTS TO GET INTO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHURCH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD DURING THE
PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER WESTERN MONTANA UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH MAY GET SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL MONTANA THOUGH GFS SEEMS A DAY
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.

THROUGH TUESDAY IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN COULD SPILL INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THE POPS ON TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TIMING. AFTER THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS MIGRATION EASTWARD ITS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IT WILL BRING WITH IT...BUT
POPS STILL LOOK NO BETTER THAN ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 BUT COULD COOL A BIT MIDWEEK IF
CLOUD COVER IS PROMINENT ENOUGH. LATER IN THE WEEK COULD SEE A
WARMUP AS THE THERMAL TROUGH JUMPS THE DIVIDE. BORSUM
&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS AS THE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/087 059/088 060/088 059/087 060/091 062/090 064/090
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
LVM 047/088 051/089 053/088 051/086 054/091 055/090 055/088
    00/U    01/B    11/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 054/087 056/090 057/090 057/088 059/093 061/092 061/091
    00/U    01/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 056/084 058/087 059/088 059/087 061/091 064/092 064/092
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 055/083 056/087 058/087 057/086 059/090 060/091 062/090
    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    22/T
BHK 051/080 053/084 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088 059/087
    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    22/T
SHR 050/085 053/087 054/086 052/084 055/088 057/088 057/086
    00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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