Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280253
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES FOR THIS EVENING. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA AS VORTICITY CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR ROUNDUP AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD HARDIN AND BROADUS. RADAR WAS ALSO SHOWING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR BAKER. FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO STAY NORTH OF BILLINGS. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 06Z AS THE
ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS ALSO DECREASING FROM
BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON AND HAVE LOWERED WINDS SPEEDS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE SURFACE GRADIENTS
WILL REMAIN TIGHT. SHOULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 MPH FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES IN THE EAST AS WINDS
SHOULD KEEP SOME MIXING GOING OVERNIGHT. RICHMOND

&& COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL KEEP
SHOWER POTENTIAL IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MEANWHILE DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
WEST...AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEP SFC LAYER DRY AND PREVENTS WEAK
SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF LATER THIS EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE PRETTY COOL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO RECENT LOW
TEMP READINGS...FALLING INTO THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.

SHALLOW RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING A DRY AND
WARMER DAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE OR A TOUCH
HIGHER FOLLOWING THE COOL NIGHT. GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY GAP WINDS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LEE
SURFACE TROF WILL FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GRADIENT AND ORIENTATION DO NOT APPEAR QUITE RIGHT FOR
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR TIGHTER GRADIENT
WITH LATEST MODEL RUN...SO WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
HAVE KEPT WINDS AND GUSTS IN SUB- ADVISORY RANGE FOR KLVM AND BIG
TIMBER...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 40 MPH AND GUSTS BELOW 58 MPH.
STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS APPEARS TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LEE TROF SHIFTS EAST. A
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION IN ZONAL TYPE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
ACCUMULATION WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE.
AAG

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION GIVING US A WARM AND
DRY END TO THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE
LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. CLIPPER DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO OUR EAST WITH DEVELOPING
EASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT COOLER
IN OUR EAST INITIALLY. AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THE WARMING
TREND WILL SPREAD LIKEWISE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A WARM AND
DRY HALLOWEEN...SO PLAN YOUR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACCORDINGLY...
THOUGH TEMPS WILL NOT COMPETE WITH THE HISTORICALLY HOT AND WINDY
HALLOWEEN OF 1999. SHERIDAN DAILY RECORD OF 74 ON NOV 1ST COULD BE
APPROACHED ON THE PRE-FRONTAL SATURDAY.

PAC TROF WILL KICK INLAND AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL TIMING OF THIS TROF IS PRETTY WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT DETAILS ARE VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE TROF SENDING ENERGY TO
OUR NORTH AND BRINGING US A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN THEN JUST WIND. THE ECMWF AND TO AN EXTENT THE UKMET
SHOW A MUCH MORE DYNAMIC TROF TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WY TO
EASTERN MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
LATTER WOULD BE A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO AND IS FAVORED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. GIVEN THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR EAST
AND A KNOWN GFS BIAS WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION AND RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SAT AFTN IN OUR WEST. MUST STRESS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT A RAIN TO WET SNOW
EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THE LOWER ELEVATION
HILLS IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING THE 850MB 0C
ISOTHERM WILL SAG INTO OUR REGION. AGAIN...THIS EVENT WOULD NOT
IMPACT HALLOWEEN BUT COULD THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE
WEEKEND INCLUDING HUNTERS. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS.

DRYING WITH A TREND TOWARD HIGHER HEIGHTS AND FLAT RIDGING IS THE
CONSENSUS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE VERY MILD
SATURDAY. HIGHS NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL...DEPENDING ON IF A PCPN EVENT MATERIALIZES.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME TO AN END
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TOMORROW AT LIVINGSTON AND
MAY BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/055 040/061 036/058 038/067 043/065 038/049 034/047
    10/U    32/W    10/B    00/U    01/B    43/O    21/B
LVM 026/054 037/054 033/056 035/067 040/060 035/044 029/047
    01/N    22/W    10/B    00/U    03/W    54/O    22/W
HDN 028/056 036/062 035/060 034/067 037/067 035/050 032/049
    10/U    23/W    00/B    00/U    00/U    44/O    21/B
MLS 027/052 035/061 035/056 033/062 036/066 036/048 032/049
    20/U    01/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    23/O    32/W
4BQ 026/053 033/061 036/056 034/063 039/068 038/050 033/050
    10/U    03/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    23/R    21/B
BHK 026/045 031/058 033/050 028/054 034/064 036/047 030/045
    20/U    01/N    00/U    00/N    00/U    13/O    32/W
SHR 025/054 032/059 034/059 032/069 036/070 035/050 028/050
    20/U    02/W    10/B    00/U    00/U    34/O    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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