Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 291536
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT
OF NORTH CENTRAL WY...WITH A SURGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED THE EASTERLY SFC WINDS AND
WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST ROUND OF PCPN FOR
BILLINGS WEST UNTIL ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS LATER. HAVE
RAISED POPS AND ADDED MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 18Z. SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LOW TO OUR SW HAS 500MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -16C ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. COMBINATION OF THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUN BREAKS/ SFC
HEATING LATER ON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE BILLINGS AREA AS WELL IF WE SEE
TEMPS GET TO THE LOW 60S. MIGHT EVEN SEE AN ISOLD TSTM OVER THE
MTNS. PCPN IN OUR EAST SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS
THIS INITIAL TROF LIFTS THROUGH...WITH AN INCREASE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER AGAIN TONIGHT AS STRONGER ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER NEVADA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND BE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN AND BE
OVER THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WYOMING WHERE A STRONGER PIECE
OF ENERGY HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY REACHED SHERIDAN WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING AS THIS FIRST WAVE
MOVES NORTH. PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT
NUMEROUS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR
THESE SAME AREAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SO CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING.

THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW GETS MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED ALLOWING FOR A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA RESULTING IN A GUSTY AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND
TUESDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF QPF JUST TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE TARGETED AREA BEING THE
EASTERN HALF OF CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH
FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. BOTH LOWS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING ALLOWING FOR OUR PRECIP TO BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AS STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DOWN SLOPING WHICH WILL OFFSET THE
LIFT ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON THURSDAY BUT CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THE
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR
WESTERN AND MOUNTAINS ZONES. RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHOWERS
LIFT NORTH AND WIND TURNS AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CHURCH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 049/067 044/060 042/060 037/067 046/074 051/073
    8/W 22/W    22/W    12/W    00/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 065 045/066 037/057 036/060 034/066 040/071 043/070
    3/T 23/W    32/W    12/W    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 065 045/069 043/061 040/061 036/067 044/075 047/074
    7/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
MLS 063 048/065 046/060 042/058 034/062 044/071 049/071
    9/W 47/T    32/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    10/U
4BQ 064 048/062 044/060 040/060 034/061 043/071 048/071
    9/T 68/T    22/W    11/U    00/U    11/U    10/U
BHK 057 047/062 044/058 039/057 032/056 038/066 046/067
    9/T ++/T    42/W    11/B    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 068 047/065 041/057 035/060 033/064 040/072 043/071
    4/W 22/W    23/W    11/U    10/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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