Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 252131
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SOME LINGERING RIAN OR
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
A NICE WARM-UP THROUGH FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE NW FLOW OVER US TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT...PRODUCING A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. WIND SHOULD PICK UP IN
THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER SOME ENERGY ALONG A STALLED
OUT WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AS WELL AS IN SOME UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER. OTHERWISE...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THURSDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL INDUCE
SOME WARMING DOWNSLOPE WIND OFF THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. SO WE
SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM-UP THURSDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS REALLY PICK UP AND SHOULD LEAD US BACK INTO
NEAR RECORD HIGHS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS ENERGY SLIDES
ACROSS MONTANA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER WITH EACH
PASSING MODEL RUN IT SEEMS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SHARPEST
WITH THE TROUGH. RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. DRY LOW LEVELS INITIALLY MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT FEEL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC ENERGY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS. FRONTAL TIMING FOR
SATURDAY HAS BEEN A BIG QUESTION MARK...BUT SEEMS TO BE COMING
MORE IN LINE AS THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP TIMING MORE. THE FRONT
SHOULD COME THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY BE TOO WARM FOR
SATURDAY...BUT FEEL EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD GET US TO FORECAST READINGS.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW HUMIDIITIES AND STRONG
WINDS COULD BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.
HIGHS WILL BE REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE
BULK OF THE COOLER AIR FROM SATURDAYS FRONT SHIFTING EAST QUICKLY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ONE OF SATURDAY AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS CROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. TWH
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A KBIL
TO KSHR LINE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/064 042/073 048/073 040/065 041/070 045/065 038/058
    20/E    00/B    03/W    21/B    11/B    13/W    22/W
LVM 037/063 041/072 047/067 037/065 040/068 042/058 031/055
    21/N    00/N    03/W    21/B    11/B    13/W    22/W
HDN 035/064 038/075 042/074 035/066 035/072 039/068 036/059
    21/E    00/B    03/W    21/B    11/B    13/W    22/W
MLS 034/058 040/071 044/074 034/063 037/069 038/067 037/057
    21/E    10/E    03/W    20/B    00/U    02/W    22/W
4BQ 032/058 038/071 040/076 035/064 036/070 039/069 035/058
    21/E    10/B    03/W    21/B    00/U    02/W    22/W
BHK 026/051 034/065 039/073 033/061 033/066 037/066 035/054
    52/W    20/E    03/W    30/U    00/U    12/W    32/W
SHR 031/059 038/070 040/076 035/065 035/070 038/069 034/055
    22/W    10/B    03/W    21/B    00/B    12/W    32/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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