Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 012056
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN
AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDESTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE SHOWING
PLENTY OF CU AROUND EXCEPT JUST EAST OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DOWNSLOPING THAT
AREA AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A ROUNDUP-
BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR QUICKLY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 15-25C
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE TO THESE AREAS. THE BULK
OF THE UPPER ENERGY LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
BRINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WENDESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REACHED EARLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE EAST AS THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRONG
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AND SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO
10 DEGREES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. EXCEPT FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...A RETURN
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS. MODELS INDICATE A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION BY 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/080 053/076 048/063 047/069 048/074 050/076 054/079
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
LVM 042/080 045/074 040/063 038/071 041/073 044/076 048/078
    00/U    02/T    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    22/W
HDN 050/080 052/077 050/065 049/072 050/077 051/079 054/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 052/079 054/078 052/064 049/071 051/077 052/079 057/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 051/080 053/083 050/064 048/071 050/077 052/079 056/082
    00/U    01/U    21/B    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/U
BHK 047/076 050/079 049/062 045/069 047/073 049/076 054/080
    00/U    01/U    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 044/079 048/080 048/065 045/072 046/075 047/079 052/081
    10/U    00/U    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/W    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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