Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 280933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
333 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...

The forecast area will continue to be influenced one more day by
a slow moving upper low over the northern Great Lakes. Cyclonic
flow associated with the low combined with a high pressure ridge
axis over the Pacific northwest will result in a continued
northwest flow aloft across our area today. Weak disturbances
within the flow will bring a continued chance for isolated showers
and thundestorms today into this evening. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler today especially across the eastern areas toward
the Dakota border due to a weak backdoor front that slides into
the area. However, temperatures will still be above normal for
this time of year with readings in the lower 70s.

High pressure ridging over the Pacific northwest shifts further
east on Monday as the upper low over the Great Lakes begins to
lose its grip over the eastern half of Montana. This will allow
for rising heights and a more stable atmosphere allowing an end
to the shower activity. The exception will be over the mountains
where a slight chance will remain. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Problems continue with the medium range models beyond Thursday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF were having issues resolving the deep upper
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Confidence decreases
for the forecast beyond Thursday due to these issues.

In the mean time, confidence is high on an amplified upper ridge
sliding into the northern Rockies Tuesday and Wednesday. This
ridge will slide east and allow a northern trough to swing across
on Thursday. Thursday will be the best chance for showers and
thundestorms as the wave moves through. A warming trend will
produce temperatures in the lower to mid 80s Wednesday and
Thursday. These warmer temperatures could well run into next
weekend as the ECMWF builds the ridge back up into Montana.

The biggest forecast impact this week could be increased mid to
high level snow melt and rises on area rivers for the end of the
week. Will monitor this closely as the week progresses. TWH



A disturbance will bring scattered light showers this morning.
Showers will decrease by mid morning, but redevelop by early
afternoon as another disturbance slides in from the north. Heavier
showers could produce local and brief MVFR conditions this
afternoon and evening, otherwise VFR flying weather is expected
through the day. West to northwest winds will increase this
afternoon with some gusts to 25kts, with higher gusts possible
near showers. The mountains will be partially obscured through the
day. TWH



    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
BIL 073 046/074 046/076 049/083 054/084 054/082 053/083
    3/T 21/U    10/U    01/U    11/B    22/T    22/T
LVM 071 040/073 040/075 044/081 046/079 045/078 044/078
    3/T 22/T    11/U    11/U    13/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 073 043/072 042/076 046/084 050/086 050/083 050/083
    3/T 21/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    22/T
MLS 075 043/071 042/073 047/083 053/085 055/082 053/083
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T
4BQ 073 042/069 041/072 045/082 051/084 053/081 051/082
    2/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T
BHK 071 039/066 037/068 041/078 048/081 050/077 049/078
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T
SHR 069 041/069 039/072 043/080 047/082 049/079 047/080
    3/T 21/U    11/U    11/U    11/B    22/T    22/T




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