Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 311453
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE ONLY
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY
OF MID AND MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MORE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING AND IDAHO. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS
TO REFLECT A PARTLY SUNNY DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS MOSTLY SUNNY
WORDING. IN ANY CASE...SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN THIS AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FAR EAST RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD WHERE GUSTS 40-50
MPH WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT CONDITIONS IN MILES
CITY ARE WINDIER THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AS LATEST OBS SHOWING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH SO HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS FOR THIS
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY SENT.
HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

THERE ARE TWO DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER SCENARIOS TO DISCUSS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SE MONTANA TODAY AND A
TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

STARTING TODAY FROM TOP TO BOTTOM...THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AT 850MB A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET IS POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MONTANA FEATURING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 KTS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY.
THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS WILL BE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO EASTERN
MONTANA TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS AT KBHK REMAINED
FAIRLY STRONG...GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AT
DAYBREAK...THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY ON
THE HIGHER BUTTES AND HILLS...TO GREATER THAN 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST...THE WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL
BE WELCOME NEWS FOR TRICK OR TREATERS.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING A COOLER AND WETTER SYSTEM
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...A COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MONTANA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION. THE STRONGEST Q VECTOR FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF US...THEREFORE...LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE PLAINS. FURTHER..WPC WINTER
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MOVING THE MAIN AXIS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
FURTHER WEST OF THE BYZ CWA.

THE BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN RANGES MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...AND POTENTIALLY AN INCH OR SO IN THE FOOTHILL
AREAS...BUT THAT MAY BE IT. ADDITIONALLY...CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS
EVENT ARE NOT INDICATING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER WITH SIMILAR
PATTERNS. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD TO EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
MILDER AND A FEW WINDY PERIODS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COAST SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE...AND Q VECTOR FORCING WILL BE LOCATED. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. THE COOLEST AIR IS
PROGGED TO STAY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF US SO SNOWFALL FOR THE
PLAINS LOOKS VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
850 MB TEMPERATURES OF A +4C. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND IMPACT OUR MOUNTAINS BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500
FEET WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE PLAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BIG TIMBER TO BILLINGS WILL
HAVE WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO
OUR GAP FLOW AREAS AND HAVE KEPT WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PUSHING
THROUGH. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH AND HAVE GONE WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS FEATURE. WILL SEE
HOW LATER MODELS EVOLVE THIS TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL PERSIST UNTIL 17Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS
LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS AT TIMES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS...STRENGTHENING FURTHER TONIGHT.
CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 043/067 040/049 033/051 032/059 039/061 039/063
    0/B 00/B    66/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 067 040/067 038/044 029/046 028/051 037/058 037/060
    0/B 02/W    98/W    42/W    02/W    22/W    11/B
HDN 066 036/070 034/051 028/053 026/062 032/062 033/065
    0/B 00/B    34/W    41/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 058 033/066 036/050 029/048 026/059 034/059 033/061
    0/N 00/B    32/W    52/W    01/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 057 035/070 039/053 031/048 027/059 036/060 035/062
    0/N 00/B    23/W    41/B    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 046 029/064 037/051 028/042 025/054 032/056 032/057
    0/N 00/B    12/W    42/W    01/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 068 036/073 038/059 027/050 021/062 029/063 031/064
    0/B 00/B    34/W    42/W    01/U    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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