Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 212224
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
324 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

The disturbance that brought the rain and snow to portions of our
forecast area last night has moved well east of the area this
afternoon leaving partly to mostly sunny skies in its wake. We did
not make any significant changes to the short term forecast with
this issuance. No strong storm systems are expected with the only
impact for the holiday travel Wednesday and Thursday being strong
gusty winds for the Livingston area and adjacent
Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills.

High pressure ridging builds back again tonight into Thursday
resulting in dry conditions and much above normal temperatures by
Thursday. Pressure gradients begin to tighten this evening along
east slopes of the Rockies as low pressure will be situated over
southern Canada with high pressure across southwest Wyoming. This
pattern will continue through Thursday night resulting in very
strong winds across the Livingston area and Beartooth Foothills.
The strongest winds look to be tonight but especially Thursday
afternoon and evening with a slight lull during the day Wednesday,
although they will still be gusty.

Some moisture will stream in off the Pacific tonight bringing a
chance for snow showers to the mountains, foothills and adjacent
plains but otherwise a dry forecast is expected through Thursday.
By Thursday night, another Pacific front moves across the forecast
area bringing an end to the Livingston area winds but will also
bring the likelihood for rain showers through the night as
temperatures look to be warm enough to support rain instead of
snow. Near record to record highs are expected Thursday with many
areas in the middle 60s. Temperatures will cool down behind the
front for Friday but still be about 10 degrees above normal with
readings in the lower 50s. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Most of the extended period will be dry with mild and windy
conditions. Ensemble spread increased beginning on Monday, adding
uncertainty to the forecast late in the period.

A shortwave departs the area Friday morning and upper ridging
amplifies over the area through Saturday. There will be a chance
of showers mainly over the SE zones Fri. morning, then the
forecast becomes dry. It will be windy on Fri. due to strong winds
aloft. Highs will average in the lower 50s both days. The flow
turns SW on Sunday and the GFS/ECMWF differ on the timing of the
next Pacific shortwave moving into/through the area Monday through
Monday night. So went with blended PoPs and had low chances for
rain and snow showers over the area Mon. through Mon. night. Gap
flow is possible Sat. night into Sunday ahead of the wave. Sunday
looked like the warmest day in the extended with highs near 60.
Upper ridging was forecast to build back into the area on Tuesday
with dry weather. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail across the area through Wednesday. Expect
areas of mountain obscuration over the Beartooths, Absarokas and
Crazys, with localized obscurations over the NE Bighorns. SW
surface winds will increase over KLVM and nearby foothills this
evening to 25 to 40 kt, with gusts to 50 kt, and continue through
Wed. morning. There will be LLWS over KMLS late tonight into
Wed. morning. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/060 042/066 041/053 031/052 037/060 036/050 031/043
    11/N    00/N    61/N    00/B    10/B    13/W    21/N
LVM 042/059 047/068 038/047 029/051 038/057 035/044 028/040
    32/W    10/N    61/N    01/N    11/N    23/W    31/N
HDN 032/062 038/069 039/055 028/053 034/061 034/052 029/045
    11/B    00/B    41/N    00/B    10/B    13/W    21/B
MLS 026/059 041/067 041/053 028/051 032/058 033/050 028/041
    11/N    00/B    31/N    10/U    10/B    12/W    32/J
BBQ 030/063 040/071 041/053 029/053 034/061 035/054 030/042
    11/N    00/B    32/W    00/U    10/B    11/B    22/J
BHK 021/057 037/067 040/051 025/049 028/057 032/049 026/039
    11/N    00/N    32/W    11/U    00/B    12/W    22/J
SHR 031/062 036/067 038/051 026/053 032/061 033/053 027/043
    11/B    00/B    22/W    00/U    00/B    02/W    32/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 PM MST Thursday FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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