Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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570
FXUS65 KBYZ 230919
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
319 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...

Upper low over northern Utah is slowly swinging eastward through
the central Rockies. This will shift its focus over the next 24
hrs from our western zones to the eastern zones. Currently, most
of the radar returns are across the central and west sections of
our CWA. Model proggs agree the upper dynamics will switch to the
east this morning after daybreak with what appears to be an
intense band developing from north central Wyoming northeastward
to Fallon County in eastern Montana. Other eastern areas will
also see precipitation as isentropic lift in the low to mid levels
intensifies. In the west, precipitation will likely turn more
shower-type than drizzle by afternoon, and become scattered and
spotty as we head into the night.

The upper low remains rather stubborn and slow to move out. So
expect its influence to affect our eastern zones well into Sunday
as well with areas of light rain and drizzle. Light rain and snow
showers will slowly dwindle in the central and western zones
Sunday. We cannot rule out some precipitation over the east and
south even into Sunday night as the upper trough axis will be
moving over the area. However, any of this will be light and of
little impact. Temps will remain quite chilly this weekend,
requiring most to bundle up for outdoor activities.

Current Winter Storm Warning for the southwest mountains expires
at 6 AM. We are inclined to cancel it with the early morning
package as additional snow fall of an inch or two in the high
country will be limited and not likely render any additional
impacts. BT


.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

For Monday into Monday night, an upper low will move
northeastward from WY to eastern MT. This low can produce some
rain mainly east of Billings. Confidence in the precipitation is
not high due to the weak dynamics progged by the models...so have
PoPs around 30 percent at the moment. If rain does fall, it should
be light with amounts less than 0.1 inch.

The upper low exits MT on Tuesday...leaving MT in a northwesterly
flow pattern Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a tiny chance of a
shower in this flow pattern but the chance is so small have left
the shower mention out of the forecast for the bulk of the area
for now. Best chance of a shower would be over the mountains.

Upper ridging dominates for Thursday and Friday with dry weather
expected across the region. High temperatures will rise from the
50s on Monday to the 60s for Tuesday through Friday to the lower
70s for Saturday. RMS
&&

.AVIATION...


Over south central MT, LIFR/IFR conditions due to low clouds
should continue today. Light rain is expected this morning. Areas
of fog are possible this morning.

For KSHR to KMLS and east to the Dakota border, expect light rain
with MVFR to IFR CIGs and visibilities today.

Mountains will be obscured today. RMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 039/050 038/057 041/064 043/064 044/065 043/068
    3/R 22/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    00/U
LVM 048 031/050 031/057 035/060 037/062 037/063 037/068
    2/O 12/W    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/U    00/U
HDN 049 039/050 037/058 037/065 041/066 041/067 041/069
    3/R 43/W    32/W    11/B    11/B    11/B    10/U
MLS 048 041/051 038/056 039/064 043/065 042/063 040/068
    6/R 54/R    32/W    21/B    11/B    11/U    00/U
4BQ 044 040/047 037/053 037/062 040/064 040/063 039/067
    8/R 76/R    53/W    21/B    11/B    11/B    10/U
BHK 047 041/049 037/054 039/061 040/064 040/061 038/065
    9/R 86/R    43/W    22/W    11/B    11/U    10/U
SHR 042 036/045 034/053 034/060 036/061 037/063 037/067
    6/R 44/R    43/W    21/B    11/B    11/B    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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