Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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014
FXUS65 KBYZ 282106
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
306 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

1019mb Canadian surface high over the Dakotas will continue to
slide south and east tonight with low level northeast flow slowly
turning southeast. Upslope and low level convergence over western
zones will slowly diminish as the evening wears on allowing
convection to dissipate around sunset. The threat for any strong
storms with small hail will only exist through about 7pm based on
latest hi- res model solutions.

Weak northwest flow will persist on Friday, though heights aloft
will slowly rise. Weak ripple in this flow combined with stagnant
low level moisture will keep a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms
in place during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall
precipitation chances will be on the decline. Highs Friday
afternoon will be seasonal in the mid to upper 80s. Rising
heights Saturday along with increasing downslope westerly winds
will bring hot and mainly dry conditions to the area. Expect highs
well into the 90s across the area. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

The latest models have continued the general solution they have
been presenting. The trough Sunday continues to move across
northern Montana that while there will be a front moving through
the area, will not produce much of the issue with winds. Also,
models, especially the SREF are showing the relative humidity
values during the afternoon will only be in the upper teens to
lower 20s. Some of the bias corrected may be lowering the humidity
values too much given that we are slightly more moist than we have
been. Also, as there will be some easterly low level flow
continuing we will have a better chance to to keep the moisture
flowing in.

Monday will be cooler behind that cold front, but Tuesday as
another trough moves in, temperatures will warm right back up.
The cold front associated with the Tuesday system will be a bit
stronger, especially with the winds. With the easterly flow as
there will be a surface low over eastern Montana, moisture will
still not be overly low. Through the remainder of the extended
flow will be more zonal with temperatures in the 80s. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible across much of the area through early
evening. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with
VFR conditions prevailing. Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/089 063/095 066/095 061/090 062/094 059/085 057/086
    32/T    20/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    21/B    11/U
LVM 052/089 053/094 055/093 051/091 054/091 050/084 048/086
    32/T    21/U    12/T    21/U    11/B    11/B    11/U
HDN 056/090 059/096 064/096 060/092 060/097 056/087 054/087
    32/T    20/U    11/B    21/U    12/T    21/B    11/U
MLS 059/087 062/095 066/096 063/092 063/096 061/087 058/086
    22/T    10/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U
4BQ 058/088 061/095 066/097 063/093 063/097 061/087 057/088
    32/T    11/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    22/T    11/U
BHK 055/083 057/091 062/094 060/088 059/091 058/084 055/084
    22/T    11/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    11/U
SHR 053/088 055/095 060/095 058/091 057/095 055/086 053/087
    32/T    21/U    13/T    21/U    12/T    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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