Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 300822
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
222 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z
WAS WRAPPING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND SNOW
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS WELL AS OVER WY. MODELS
DRIFT THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY AND ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP. MODELS HAD MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...RETREATING SW THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT E UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
COLUMN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MODELS
DEVELOPED PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING FROM KBIL W AND S. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM KBIL W AND S THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MADE ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED
POPS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING THE
MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING W AND S OF
KBIL...THEN HAD SOME LOW LINGERING MOUNTAIN POPS OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA ON SUN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS
CHANGE ARE UNCERTAIN AS GFS KEEPS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY
WELL DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS AN INTERACTION
WHICH COULD BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EITHER WAY
PRETTY DISTINCT CHANGE FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL BE DRAMATICALLY WARMER AND THEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BACK TO
MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR. FOOTHILLS WILL
BE FAVORED FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CEILINGS OF 4KFT TO 7KFT CAN BE EXPECTED. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 036/060 038/065 040/070 044/073 046/075 047/072
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
LVM 050 032/058 031/065 036/069 038/073 040/074 042/070
    3/W 20/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    22/W
HDN 056 034/062 035/066 037/071 039/074 041/076 043/074
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W
MLS 059 036/063 038/068 040/072 043/075 047/076 048/073
    1/E 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
4BQ 054 032/060 034/064 037/070 039/074 042/075 044/073
    2/W 10/U    00/U    01/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 057 032/062 035/066 037/070 040/072 042/072 043/069
    1/B 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 049 031/057 032/061 034/065 036/069 038/072 040/070
    8/W 30/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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