Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 041540
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THERE IS SOME
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FLURRIES ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS
THIS MORNING FROM WEAK QG FORCING IN THE NW FLOW CREATING A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE THERE. WILL ADD THIS FOR THE MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HITTING OUT BY BAKER...SO WILL LET IT GO THROUGH ITS VALID PERIOD
OF 11 AM. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEAVING THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US...THE AREA WILL BE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECTING INCREASING CIRRUS WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...AS A MORE FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE PARK...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AROUND LIVINGSTON. SOME
LOCAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HINTS OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWS A REALLY TIGHT GRADIENT
AROUND LIVINGSTON. AT THE MOMENT...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAK PIECES OF PACIFIC ENERGY PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FAIRLY FAST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THIS SHOULD
AMOUNT ONLY TO PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN MOST
CASES. THE STRONGER WAVE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT IN MODEL PLACEMENT HAS SEEMINGLY RESOLVED
ITSELF WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRODUCING A SHOWER OR TWO EAST OF A MILES CITY TO ALZADA LINE AS
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF SLIDES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
TOWARD 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS GAP WIND FAVORED
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WE EXPECT SOME CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY TODAY AND THAT
COULD YIELD BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCHULTZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 015/046 028/053 029/053 031/056 034/060 035/061
    0/U 00/N    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 030 019/045 028/051 031/054 033/055 034/058 035/060
    0/U 00/N    01/B    11/B    10/U    00/N    00/N
HDN 027 011/048 025/054 026/054 029/057 031/062 032/063
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 020 007/047 025/052 027/051 029/054 031/058 032/059
    0/U 00/B    00/B    21/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 018 002/043 020/047 023/050 027/053 028/059 030/060
    0/U 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/B    00/U    00/U
BHK 014 000/043 021/047 024/048 026/051 028/055 028/056
    0/B 00/B    00/B    21/B    11/B    00/U    00/N
SHR 018 005/042 020/047 024/048 025/053 028/058 030/060
    1/B 00/B    00/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
      FOR ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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