Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 151952
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
152 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night...

Key Message

- Rangeland Fire Danger statement in effect for Carter and Fallon
  Counties. Be aware and avoid causing a spark.

Fire weather remains the biggest concern today, especially for
areas in Southeast Montana near the border with the Dakotas.
Temperatures will be around 10 degrees above average with low RH
values in the 20s for most of the plains. An Alberta Clipper
moving through North Dakota will keep persistent breezy
conditions along the border giving Carter and Fallon Counties the
highest fire danger. RH values in this region have a 30-40% chance
for getting below 20%. Due to these conditions a Rangeland Fire
Danger statement has been issued for those two counties until 03Z
Saturday. The clipper will bring cooler temperatures into the east
for Saturday increasing RH values and diminishing any fire
threat.

Skies will remain mostly clear today with more clouds moving in
for Saturday. Today and tomorrow will remain dry as upper ridging
makes its way in from the west. Temperatures will be in the 50s
across most of the region today and tomorrow with cooler
temperatures in the 40s for Carter and Fallon Counties tomorrow.
Torgerson

Sunday through Friday...

Good agreement that strong upper ridge axis will be W of the
region Sunday with fast northerly flow over the far eastern part
of the forecast area. Highs will range from the upper 30s far E to
the low to mid 50s elsewhere.

Monday is a day of fire weather concern. Ridge pushes further E
into the area. NBM Fosberg Index was in the 40s and 50s from KBIL
to KSHR E, with some 60s in far SE MT. Hot Dry Windy Index had
highest chances of these conditions E and S of Rosebud County with
probabilities of 60% or higher of exceeding the 95th percentile.
EPS showed mean wind gusts NW 25-35 mph from around KBIL E in the
afternoon. Min RH values from the NBM lined up well with Clusters
and GFS soundings with low 20s around KBIL, KSHR and over far SE
MT. A cold front was currently forecast to push S through the area
in the afternoon. Any changes to this timing will change
temp/RH/wind forecast. NBM deterministic forecast still had temps
in 60s to lower 70s, which was curiously below the 25th to 75th
percentile. Messaging partners about this potential fire weather
day.

Ridge continues over the area on Tuesday with much less wind, but
continued well above-normal temperatures. Poor model agreement
Wednesday with either upper ridging or WNW flow over the area. No
model agreement on position of next Pacific trough on Thursday,
except trough axis is to the W of the region. Similar situation
persists for Friday. NBM brings in a 20% chance of rain as far e
as Treasure County Wed. afternoon. PoPs increase Wed. night with a
rain/snow mix. Thursday afternoon had the highest PoPs from around
KBIL W at 50-60% with snow as the main precipitation type. Chances
for snow continue through Friday when highs are forecast in the
30s to lower 40s. There was much uncertainty during this unsettled
period due to model differences, so keep up with the latest
forecast to see how this pattern evolves with time.

As of now, 12Z Thu-12Z Friday had the highest chances of 2 or
more inches of snow, with KLVM showing 21%, KBIL 17%, and KSHR
13%. Highest peaks of the Beartooths/Absarokas showed a 43% chance
of 6 or more inches in the same time period. Arthur
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail tonight through Saturday. Surface winds will
gust to 20 to 25 kt from the NW early this evening at KMLS, KBHK
and K97M. N to NW winds will gust to around 25 kt at KBHK and K97M
Sat. afternoon. Arthur


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/056 033/055 035/070 037/068 039/064 031/044 023/039
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/U    02/R    46/S    54/S
LVM 031/053 032/055 033/063 036/063 037/060 033/047 024/039
    00/B    00/B    00/U    00/U    02/R    45/O    54/S
HDN 031/056 030/053 030/071 034/069 036/064 029/045 023/042
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/U    02/R    45/S    54/S
MLS 029/051 025/045 027/066 032/061 034/056 025/038 020/034
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/U    01/U    44/S    42/S
4BQ 030/051 027/047 027/068 034/065 037/063 030/047 022/040
    00/U    00/B    00/N    00/U    01/U    32/O    42/S
BHK 026/046 019/039 021/063 027/056 031/053 020/036 015/033
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/U    01/U    43/S    42/S
SHR 029/054 029/051 028/068 033/066 035/063 030/050 023/044
    00/B    11/B    00/U    00/U    01/U    34/O    53/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.