Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 150948
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
348 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Wed...

Moisture plume streaming across the Bighorns and into eastern
Montana is  bands of showers over Sheridan and Big Horn county
this morning. As a shortwave aloft and associated moisture plume
push eastward PoPs should become more confined to eastern MT by
late morning. PV axis is moving into Livingston and will generate
pockets of showers in the western foothills and mountains through
sunrise.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain from the Bighorns
through eastern Montana, and in the Absarokas through most of the
afternoon. Drier air moves in place as shortwave pushes over the
Dakotas late today. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to get
a few degrees warmer than yesterday with temps in the upper 70s to
low 80s expected. Warming and drying trend continues tomorrow
with low-level ridging building in and westerly flow aloft. Mid to
upper 80s possible tomorrow with clear skies, and humidity values
back around 20 percent. Walsh


.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

On Thursday, upper shortwave trough moving southeastward over MT
can produce a few isolated showers and general thunderstorms
mainly south and east of Billings. This upper trough should also
push a weak surface trough through the region with the main impact
being some breezy conditions behind the surface trough Thursday
afternoon into the evening.

Ridging builds in for Friday, giving a sunny and warm day to the
area. Then upper flow flattens with a weak cold front progged to
cross the region Saturday morning and midday. Some breezy
conditions are possible again behind the front, but the better
pressure rises and higher winds should be north of our CWA.

Upper flow turns more west/southwesterly on Sunday, enough that
the region could begin to see a return to monsoonal mid-level
moisture. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms in this pattern
would be over the mountains...though a few stray showers/storms
might make it out onto the plains.

High temperatures are generally expected to be in the 80s Thursday
through Monday. The warmest days should be Friday and Saturday
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. RMS
&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over southern MT
(mainly south of KBIL) and north central WY today. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible under the heaviest showers and storms.
There will be areas of mountain obscuration today. Otherwise, VFR
will prevail. RMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 057/085 058/085 056/089 059/089 058/084 057/084
    1/B 10/U    11/B    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 077 050/084 049/083 047/088 050/087 048/084 049/085
    2/T 11/U    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 080 054/088 056/088 054/090 057/092 056/087 056/087
    3/T 11/U    11/B    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/B
MLS 081 056/087 060/090 056/089 060/093 061/087 058/087
    2/T 00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 078 055/085 057/089 054/088 058/093 057/088 057/088
    3/T 10/U    12/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
BHK 077 055/083 056/088 053/086 056/091 057/085 055/084
    2/T 21/U    12/T    00/U    00/U    01/B    11/B
SHR 073 052/083 052/084 050/086 053/089 053/085 052/084
    4/T 21/U    13/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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