Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 011528
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
928 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
NOTHING TO UPDATE THIS MORNING. JET TO THE NW OF THE AREA WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAINLY NW OF THE AREA ON
SATELLITE...SO LOOKING AT A SUNNY DAY UNDER WSW FLOW. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MIXING WILL BE BETWEEN
600-700 MB AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO SUPPORT THE
GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WIND TODAY BASED ON
WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

NEW WRF SOUNDINGS FOR WED INDICATED A HOT...DRY...WINDY DAY W OF
KBIL WHICH SUPPORTED THE RFW W OF KBIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

HOT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB RIDGING WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS...HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED...WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF NOR ALONG THE FRONT SO WE WILL KEEP THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

THURSDAY IS POST FRONTAL AND WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY SO WARM
SECTOR WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE. STILL MAY BE A BIT WARMER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AS MODELS HINT AT FRONT STALLING A BIT. AIRMASS IS CAPPED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BUT IS UNSTABLE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO
HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ENERGY WORKING OUT OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT THIS A BIT FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE BUT ONLY INCREMENTALLY AS ITS STILL A FAIRLY UNDYNAMIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SOME WEAK ENERGY RIPPLES.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOL BUT HOW COOL AND HOW WET AND WHERE IS NOT
EASY TO ANSWER GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS. EARLY ECMWF AND
GFS AND DIVERGED FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS BUT TONIGHT THE ECMWF
IS GOING BACK TO A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE THE FASTEST MOVING AND SHALLOWEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST...AND THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER YET BUT DOES NOT
DIG THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF AND WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. MODEL SPECTRUM GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SO STILL TAKING A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON THE AMOUNT OF
COOL DOWN AND WET POTENTIAL. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS LESS THAN
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM/DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 060/093 058/075 049/070 049/068 047/069 045/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
LVM 090 052/091 048/073 041/068 041/068 041/066 040/073
    0/U 00/N    12/T    34/T    45/T    54/T    22/W
HDN 093 057/096 055/081 048/074 050/072 047/071 044/075
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    32/W
MLS 093 060/099 060/083 053/077 053/072 049/069 046/074
    0/U 00/U    10/B    22/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
4BQ 093 059/098 059/087 053/079 054/072 050/072 048/073
    0/U 00/U    11/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
BHK 090 055/097 058/086 053/079 053/073 049/071 046/072
    0/U 00/U    10/B    12/T    35/T    55/T    32/W
SHR 091 052/096 054/084 047/078 049/072 044/071 041/073
    0/U 10/U    01/B    22/T    34/T    44/T    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
      MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-34-39>41-56-63>68.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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