Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 161034
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
334 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy through Mon...

Winds have increased along the western foothills overnight with
some areas of blowing snow reducing visibilities at times. Expect
winds to continue to increase through the day with southwest wind gusts
up to 60 mph possible from Livingston to Nye. Have continued the
Wind Advisory in effect for these areas through 6pm today.
The advisory may need to be extended further in time if winds
stay up a bit longer. Breezy conditions with patchy blowing snow
will be possible across central and western areas outside of the
foothills today as well.

Snow increases over the western mountains today as moisture begins
to stream in over the region. Snow will spread out onto the plains
this evening and overnight as a disturbance drops through
northwest flow over the area. There remains uncertainty in where
the heaviest snowfall will be, but in generall, 1 to 3 inches
look possible for a good portion of the area. There may be some
locally higher totals with good lapse rates aloft. Snow will
decrease across most of the area Saturday morning with snow
continuing over the mountains during the day. Snow looks to spread
out onto the plains Saturday evening, mainly across the north,
before shifting south overnight as an associated surface low dives
south and east into Wyoming. There may be a brief lull in the
snow Sunday morning, before snow increases again over the area
late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening into Monday as the
aforementioned upper low digs over Idaho, and upslope flow
increases over the area. While there remains model uncertainty in
timing and placement of the areas of heaviest precipitation, the
models remain in good agreement in the overall pattern. Several
inches of snowfall look possible across a large portion of the
area Saturday night through Monday.

High temperatures will range from the 30s today, to the 20s and
30s on Saturday, before temperatures cool into the teens on
Sunday and single digits for Monday. Low temperatures will range
from the single digits and teens above zero most nights, with lows
dipping into the single digits to teens below zero Sunday night
and Monday night. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri

Pattern for the extended period remains unsettled over the
northern Rockies as a strong ridge remains in place off the west
coast keeping the door open for weak systems and chunks of cold
air to drop in from Canada. At this point have low pops in to
cover these but may need to increase precipitation chances going
forward for some periods. Cold air will slowly retreat Wednesday
with highs back to around freezing in many areas by Thursday,
though some models drop Canadian airmass back into the region on
Friday. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions to start the day across the area. Westerly winds
are on the increase over the area with gusts of 25 to 40kts
spreading from the foothills into the plains creating areas of
blowing and drifting snow that may reduce surface visibility to
under 3sm at times west of Billings. Drifting snow will be the
main issue east of Billings with less reduction in visibility.

By 18z expect MVFR conditions to develop for areas west of
Billings as snow shower activity increases and ceilings drop down
to pass elevation. Mountain obscuration can be anticipated after
21z and will continue through tonight. MVFR conditions will shift
east this evening with local IFR conditions in heavier snow
showers including KBIL. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 015/031 007/014 906/007 911/014 907/024 010/030
    1/Q 75/S    77/S    74/S    11/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 033 020/038 014/020 905/009 909/018 000/028 015/033
    3/S 75/S    87/S    74/S    21/B    11/N    12/J
HDN 035 011/030 007/016 906/007 914/011 910/023 005/028
    2/S 84/S    76/S    74/S    21/B    11/U    11/B
MLS 031 008/022 003/011 907/004 917/004 911/016 002/021
    2/S 62/S    73/S    64/S    11/B    11/U    11/B
4BQ 034 013/027 009/017 903/008 911/011 910/020 005/027
    1/B 82/S    54/S    85/S    21/B    11/U    11/B
BHK 031 010/020 004/012 907/005 915/005 913/015 002/023
    1/B 61/B    73/S    75/S    21/E    11/U    11/B
SHR 034 014/032 012/020 906/008 910/014 911/023 004/031
    1/B 62/S    57/S    75/S    21/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM MST this evening FOR ZONES
      65-66.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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