Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 240855
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
255 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH BIG
TIMBER SEEING 1.3 INCHES...LIVINGSTON 0.4 INCHES AND COLUMBUS 0.5
INCHES. MILES CITY PICKED UP 0.70 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES WITH A
THUNDERSTORM AROUND 2 AM AND RADAR INDICATES AREAS AROUND ASHLAND
SAW CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE...AN ISSUE DEVELOPED
WITH THE FORECAST LATE YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING INSTEAD TOOK A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS 150 MILE ADJUSTMENT
SOUTHWARD HAS DRAGGED THE BEST WIDESPREAD FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION
DOWN IN THE RIVERTON AND CASPER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH
WAS FORECAST OVER OUR AREA YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL
PRECIPITATION TO BE HAD OVER OUR AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT IT
WON`T BE QUITE AS HEAVY OR EVENLY DISPERSED AS WAS ANTICIPATED
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

ONE LOBE OF ENERGY IS WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS BIG HORN AND
ROSEBUD COUNTY ON THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAM AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MODELS BRING IT WEST TO ABOUT A
ROUNDUP TO BILLINGS LINE AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING IT.
THIS WILL BE A THEME THROUGH TONIGHT AS SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES
PIVOT EAST TO WEST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ONLY TO DISSIPATE
AT ABOUT THE SAME BILLINGS TO ROUNDUP LINE. FURTHER WEST THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
BUT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN AREAS
FURTHER EAST.

BILLINGS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN GETTING A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR BETTER THAN HALF AN INCH. CURRENTLY HAVE
A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE FORECAST AND LIKELY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BUT IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE AND HOPEFULLY THE MORNING
MODEL RUNS WILL GIVE A MORE DEFINITIVE ANSWER.

ONE RESULT OF THE LOW TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH IS THAT MODELS ARE
DRAGGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR A
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER HILLS EAST OF BILLINGS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK
MINIMALLY AFFECTED BY ANY SNOW AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

CURRENT SYSTEM TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT SOME
RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LOW
ARRIVAL MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S MONDAY. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

OVERALL HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
GIVEN HOW MODELS HAVE WANTED TO TREND SUCCESSIVE LOWS FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT LOW IS MOVING A LITTLE
FATHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...HAVE TRENDED POPS THROUGH THE WEEK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST SPECTRUM. HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET FORECAST AS EVEN WITH THE LOWS GOING
FATHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW TO GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY DRIER AS SOME WEAK RIDGING
WORKS IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. THEY ARE
CONVERGING TO THE ECMWF/S SOUTHERN SOLUTION. EVEN WITH THIS THERE
IS ENOUGH DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MONTANA ALONG WITH MOISTURE TO AT
LEAST MERIT SOME CONTINUED POPS.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...AS WE
GO INTO THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH HIGHS
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR...MAINLY EAST OF KBIL TO KSHR LINE. SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/048 038/046 037/048 036/052 036/057 040/058
    6/R 75/O    66/W    54/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
LVM 055 037/053 035/047 034/051 033/051 034/055 035/057
    5/R 56/O    66/W    43/W    33/W    23/W    33/W
HDN 043 036/049 037/047 035/048 033/053 034/057 036/057
    +/R 85/O    66/W    54/W    32/W    22/W    33/W
MLS 044 035/046 036/047 036/049 034/054 035/056 039/055
    +/R 84/O    44/W    65/W    32/W    12/W    33/W
4BQ 044 034/050 036/045 034/044 033/049 032/054 036/053
    +/O 74/O    57/W    76/W    32/W    23/W    34/W
BHK 045 035/044 032/044 032/046 030/050 032/054 035/052
    +/R 65/O    34/W    66/W    32/W    12/W    34/W
SHR 043 034/049 036/043 033/045 031/049 032/053 033/054
    +/O 84/O    77/W    64/W    33/W    23/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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