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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 140950
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
350 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND IS INTO
THE DAKOTAS CURRENTLY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WERE LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA LAST EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUSSELSHELL AND YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES LATE LAST
EVENING. THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHED BUT NOT BEFORE SOME
OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 45 MPH WERE REPORTED AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT.

SATELLITE SHOWING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE NOW RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED
THE RIDGE WELL EAST OF MONTANA LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW TO PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER...FROM WHAT THE AREA
EXPERIENCED MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 70S BUT THIS
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD
WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY. MODELS SHOW 850MB WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS ACROSS CUSTER
AND FALLON COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT DECREASING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40
MPH AND/OR GUST AROUND 55 MPH BUT BELIEVE THE WINDOW WILL BE SHORT
SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

WHILE A TRANSITION TO A COOLER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE ABILITY FOR
THIS PATTERN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA AT THE LOW LEVELS FROM
GULF MOISTURE IS LESS CONFIDENT. OTHER FEATURE THAT IS STARTING TO
BECOME APPARENT IS THAT THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AS A SPLIT WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.

MOUNTAINS WILL CLEARLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING PERIODS
WHERE FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME A BIT MORE CYCLONIC. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

THE OTHER UNKNOWN IS HOW DEEP THE MOISTURE BECOMES BECAUSE THERE
IS NO SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS CHANGED PROGGED DURING THE PERIOD. IF
MOISTURE DOES GET ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
STICKING AROUND AND SUPPORTING THE DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. EXPECTED WINDS OF 30 TO 40KT TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. BORSUM
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 045/076 051/073 052/071 050/068 048/064 046/064
    0/N 01/B    23/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 074 037/076 044/071 045/067 042/065 041/063 041/062
    0/N 02/T    23/T    34/T    44/T    43/T    33/T
HDN 076 044/078 050/076 051/074 051/070 048/067 042/065
    0/N 01/B    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 074 045/077 052/075 051/075 052/069 046/067 043/066
    0/N 00/B    13/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
4BQ 075 044/077 050/074 051/075 054/069 047/065 041/063
    0/N 00/B    22/T    34/T    43/T    33/T    33/T
BHK 072 043/074 049/072 045/071 050/069 042/064 041/063
    0/N 00/B    13/T    34/T    55/T    44/T    33/T
SHR 074 042/075 046/073 046/072 048/066 043/061 037/060
    0/N 02/T    23/T    33/T    44/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS