Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 152142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
242 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

Models remain in very good agreement with the overall pattern through
Tuesday with dry conditions prevailing across the area. Split
flow aloft will give way to a weak clipper system sliding across
eastern Montana later tonight into Monday with just some increased
cloud cover expected. Weak cold front associated with the wave
should limit temperatures from warming too much past Sunday`s
highs. Behind the clipper, winds will begin to increase in the gap
flow areas Monday night as surface high pressure builds over SE
Idaho and lee side troughing develops over the area. Strong
west/southwest gap flow winds look to continue into Tuesday as the
surface pressure gradients tighten and westerly 700 mb winds
increase. Wind highlites will likely be needed for the Livingston
area, east to the Beartooth Foothills.

High temperatures in the 20s and 30s can be expected on Monday,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for most locations on Tuesday as
heights build aloft and 850 mb temps warm. Warmest temperatures
can be expected along the foothills locations with surface
pressure gradients supporting downslope winds. Temperature
forecast remains challenging with snowpack and local drainage
effects. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Overall 500 MB pressure pattern and guidance numbers provide
relatively high confidence in mild but windy/breezy conditions at
midweek. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week thanks to
strong downsloping and WAA. We`ll likely see advisory level gusts
at Livingston and Nye continue Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Exact temps may be tough, but the downsloping will be
significant, so we think we should finally scour out a good deal
of that shallow cold air in the valleys and lower regions. Above
normal temps will continue Thursday but gap winds should begin to
decrease as a more amplified trof approaches from the west.

The best chance of precipitation points to late Thursday into
Friday as splitting trof moves through the northern and central
Rockies. Precip type should be rain or mixed rain/snow showers at
lower elevations with a little snow accumulation over the
mountains, but nothing significant. Ensembles have a pretty wide
spread of solutions after this, but feel overall cyclonic flow
will prevail. So normal to somewhat below normal temps with low
PoP`s should be sufficient. As we have mentioned in previous
discussions, no arctic air is expected.

Regarding river ice, it is possible that a brief 3-day period of
above normal temperatures is not enough to generate widespread ice
jam issues, especially with cooler temps coming next weekend. On
the other hand, low temps along the western foothills may stay
above freezing for a couple nights, so believe rivers and streams
in our west will be important to monitor, initially. BT



VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area through
tonight. Westerly winds gusting 20-30 kts along the foothills will
cause localized drifting snow near KLVM and K3HT. BT



    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
BIL 017/032 021/042 031/047 032/044 028/037 019/031 018/031
    00/N    00/N    00/N    00/B    32/J    12/J    22/J
LVM 013/037 023/045 031/048 032/046 025/039 017/034 017/033
    00/N    10/N    11/N    12/W    32/W    12/J    22/J
HDN 002/029 009/039 024/045 025/041 021/034 015/030 011/029
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    32/J    22/J    22/J
MLS 002/023 012/039 028/041 025/040 023/037 018/031 015/029
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    32/J    22/J    22/J
4BQ 005/029 011/040 023/045 022/040 021/036 017/031 013/029
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    22/J    22/J    22/J
BHK 000/025 012/040 027/044 026/041 024/036 019/030 015/027
    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    23/J    23/J    21/B
SHR 004/032 012/040 025/048 024/044 020/037 013/031 012/032
    00/U    00/B    00/B    00/B    32/J    12/J    22/J




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