Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 202024
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE INTO MON THEN WILL QUIET DOWN
AGAIN FOR TUE. THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET N OF THE
AREA WILL COUPLE WITH THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF ANOTHER JET TO
THE S TO BRING COUPLED JET DIVERGENCE TO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SW ALLOWING
ENERGY FROM A STRONG WAVE OVER CA AND NV TO MOVE NE INTO THE
AREA. MONSOONAL AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE S AND
SW OVER THE AREA AS WELL. THE STRONG WAVE WAS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING S THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF E MT.

FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BY MON
MORNING AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING ON MON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS REACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM W TO E.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM THE
JET...FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO SHOWED THE HIGHEST CAPES NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER...AROUND 1000 J/KG. THERE WAS ALSO DECENT SHEAR
INDICATED NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO INDICATED A CAP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...DECREASING TOWARD 00Z TUE. WHILE THERE WAS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY
RAIN...THERE WAS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MADE ONLY
MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR MON AND LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST MON NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS THE LAST MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES E. HEIGHTS
WILL THEN RISE OVER THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER N WITH TIME. 700
MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING +14 TO +16
DEGREES C BY 12Z WED. THE ABOVE WILL SERVE TO SLOWLY CAP OFF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FOR TUE MORNING...LEFT LOW
POPS E OF KBIL WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE AND HAD SOME POPS OVER THE
FAR W AND N FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LEFT LATE TUE NIGHT
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD 90 DEGREES ON TUE.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MON. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THURSDAY
FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
POTENTIAL LOOKS NIL FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT MAYBE AN ISOLATED RISK
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. BEHIND SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND MOSTLY
80S FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FRIEDERS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/086 061/090 062/095 062/091 057/085 057/083 059/086
    13/T    31/B    12/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 055/083 055/089 054/093 053/089 051/083 049/081 050/087
    25/T    52/T    22/T    21/N    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/089 059/092 062/099 060/092 057/086 055/084 057/087
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 064/089 063/090 064/095 063/091 059/086 058/083 060/084
    13/T    52/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 063/091 061/090 062/097 062/094 058/085 057/083 058/084
    13/T    32/T    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 060/089 059/086 060/090 058/089 057/083 052/080 056/080
    13/T    52/T    12/T    22/T    21/U    11/N    11/U
SHR 058/089 055/090 058/096 057/093 054/084 052/082 053/083
    13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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