Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 212307
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
507 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016
Updating to remove Golden Valley, Musselshell and Yellowstone
Counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Cold front was still
moving through counties further east and Watch continues there.
New watch was issued for remainder of SE MT til 06Z. Arthur
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sun...
A line of thunderstorms was working it/s way NNE through the
western part of the forecast area this afternoon. Received report
of very heavy rain and half-inch hail from a storm that moved
through Big Timber. These storms were not located in unstable air
due to the heavy cloud cover that has persisted through the day,
but were being aided by frontogenesis and vorticity advection.
Further E...mainly E of KBIL...visible satellite showed that low
clouds had cleared out and thin cirrus was moving through the
area. Convection-allowing models lifted the western line of
storms N through the afternoon, then formed other storms around
Rosebud/Custer Counties during the evening as a cold front moves E
through the area. The far two eastern counties remain capped due
to strong SE low-level flow. Models were in agreement that the
strongest storms will be the western ones moving north. Cannot
rule out other strong storms east of KBIL in the Rosebud/Custer
County area as the system/s cold front makes it/s way E into this
area by 03z. Noted that very strong bulk effective shear was
moving E with time and the shear may be too strong to support the
eastern storms this evening. Had highest PoPs E of KBIL tonight.
Once area of storms becomes established, it should move quickly E
with the cold front.
The upper low will move E along the Canadian border Sun. through
Monday. The flow over the area turns W with energy moving through
the flow. Kept the idea of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Instability will be much lower with capes of a few
hundred joules/kg. Temperatures will be near normal. Arthur
.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
No changes to the extended forecast this afternoon. Upper low
spinning just northeast of the state will continue to fill Tuesday
into Wednesday with weak energy rotating through eastern Montana
keeping a chance of precipitation in the forecast. Weak ridging
and generally light flow aloft build into the area from the west
Wednesday into Thursday. This pattern sets up well for isolated to
scattered airmass type showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening given the recent moisture we have seen over the
Northern Rockies. High temperatures look very seasonal in the 65
to 75 degree range through the extended period. Chambers
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the forecast area through this evening. Already have
reports of heavy rain and small hail occurring west of Billings
this afternoon. Expect a few strong to severe thunderstorms
through 03z with large hail the main threat. Local MVFR/IFR
conditions in heavy rain can be expected near convection. Gusty
southeast winds will continue into the night over Carter and
Fallon counties with gusts around 40kts. Westerly winds of 20 to
30kts will spread from west to east across the area with a cold
front tonight...generally in the wake of convection. Stratus is
likely to redevelop overnight generally east of a Miles City to
Broadus line with IFR to occasional LIFR conditions. Chambers
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
BIL 074 046/068 044/067 044/068 047/068 047/069 048/070
3/T 32/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 063 038/059 040/060 038/062 040/064 040/065 040/066
5/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 079 045/071 041/071 042/070 048/070 048/071 050/072
2/T 32/T 22/T 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 086 053/073 047/072 047/071 050/071 050/071 050/072
2/T 52/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
4BQ 085 049/071 042/072 043/071 048/069 047/069 048/071
3/T 53/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
BHK 075 049/073 042/071 042/070 047/069 047/068 048/069
2/T 43/T 22/T 22/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
SHR 079 042/066 038/068 040/066 043/065 043/066 044/066
2/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188 in effect until 9 PM MDT this
evening FOR ZONES 30-31-38-57-58.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189 in effect until midnight MDT
tonight FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188 in effect until 9 PM MDT this
evening FOR ZONES 98-99.