Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 271505
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL OCCURRED IN PARK COUNTY LAST NIGHT...WITH
NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT LIVINGSTON. ACTIVITY IN OUR
WEST HAS LIFTED NORTH BUT ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN IS APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHEAST ID. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION IN AZ/UT INTO SOUTHERN
ID. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND INTO OUR WEST TODAY...WHERE REGION OF GREATEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXISTS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
GREATER JET SUPPORT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW TODAY. FOCUS OF PCPN
SHOULD STAY OVER OUR WEST AS A RESULT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO DRY
OUT BILLINGS TODAY...COULD BE AN ISOLATED UPSLOPE SPRINKLE BUT
THATS ABOUT ALL. HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TS EVERYWHERE BUT
OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AS COOL LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS
STABILIZED OUR AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY. LATEST SREF CERTAINLY SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR CWA TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK
FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S IN OUR WEST...WITH 70S AND STILL
SOME SUN IN OUR EAST. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A LARGE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS ARE FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM IN KEEPING THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS LOCATION WILL PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVER UTAH...EASTERN
IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA. QUITE AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER
UTAH LAST EVENING AND THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOP AND TRAIN NORTHWARD...BUT LIGHTING
DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT INTO
IDAHO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS MAINLY SWEET GRASS AND PARK COUNTIES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE PRECIP MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD
AS A RESULT OF THE STATIONARY UPPER LOW. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
JUST WEST OF BILLINGS TODAY WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR BILLINGS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH READINGS ONLY MAKING IT
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WEST TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S TOWARD
THE DAKOTA BORDER WHERE SKIES WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING AND COLORADO. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FEW PIECES OF VORTICITY ENERGY BEING SPUN OFF
THE LOW RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OR AREAS OF RAIN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL FROM TODAYS
READINGS AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE 00Z MODEL RUN WAS THE
GFS/CMC MODELS WHICH CLOSE OFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND LIFT IT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EC ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BUT LIFTS IT NORTHWARD MUCH
FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WITH ANY OF THE
ABOVE SCENARIOS BELIEVE THAT SOUTHEAST MONTANA COULD GET SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN IS THAT BOTH THE GFS/EC ARE NOW BRINGING
STRONGER Q VECTOR FORCING INTO THE EASTERN AREAS. CYCLONIC FLOW TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A CONTINUE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED PRECIPITATION. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL BECOME SEASONAL AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO LOWERED
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AROUND THE BEARTOOTHS AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM THE BEARTOOTHS
NORTHWARD...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE RIGHT OVER THE
BEARTOOTHS. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND LOCAL MVFR TO SPREAD
EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 044/052 041/064 049/066 045/060 041/057 041/064
    1/E 66/W    63/W    22/W    22/W    02/W    20/U
LVM 058 045/053 041/064 043/064 037/058 035/055 034/065
    8/R 87/W    63/W    33/W    32/W    12/W    21/B
HDN 069 047/057 043/066 047/068 044/062 040/059 039/066
    1/E 66/W    63/W    22/W    22/W    02/W    20/U
MLS 073 047/056 043/064 051/066 046/062 041/058 039/065
    0/B 46/W    66/T    33/W    22/W    12/W    21/B
4BQ 075 049/063 044/066 051/064 044/059 039/057 037/063
    0/U 24/T    66/T    33/T    22/W    12/W    21/B
BHK 075 047/057 041/062 051/064 044/060 038/056 036/060
    0/U 24/W    66/T    75/T    22/W    12/W    21/B
SHR 072 048/055 042/066 046/065 042/056 036/055 034/064
    0/E 45/T    73/W    23/W    22/W    02/W    20/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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