Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 161547
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
947 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WAS SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. RADAR RETURNS WERE VERY
LIMITED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER. RAPID REFRESH BRINGS SOME WEAK
RETURNS TOWARD BAKER LATE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR NOW
AS FORCING IS MOVING OUT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE NEAR BAKER. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP AT MILES
CITY AND BAKER AND THIS CONSISTENT WITH HRR 10M FORECAST. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE IN THAT REGARD. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. TWH

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...

COLD FRONT HAS RAPIDLY EXITED THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS
LOCATED NEAR BISMARK AT 230 AM. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THERE. SAW A GUST TO 48MPH IN BILLINGS AT
2AM...BUT SHOULD SEE WINDS STEADILY DECREASE OVER CENTRAL ZONES
WITH 10 TO 20 MPH TYPE WINDS BY SUNRISE IN THIS AREA.

A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE 50-60KT WINDS WILL RESIDE
THROUGH MID DAY AT ABOUT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. SURFACE
FRONTAL INVERSION IS PROGGED TO KEEP THE STRONGEST OF THIS
MOMENTUM FROM DROPPING TO THE SURFACE AS DIURNALLY THE MORNING
HOURS IS A POOR TIME TO SEE WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THAT BEING
SAID IT WILL BE PLENTY WINDY AND EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE OVER THIS AREA ESPECIALLY TOWARD NOON AS
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST NEAR
60 MPH FOR HIGHER EXPOSED LOCATIONS EAST OF A MILES CITY TO
BROADUS LINE...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A HIGH
WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT BUT
KEPT FORECAST DRY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY
FOR DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH A MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...HAVE RAISED PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME TO ABOVE CLIMO. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPPER SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED AT
THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY 70S
INTO TUESDAY WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEING WARMEST DAY AHEAD THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY AT TIME BE GUSTY UP TO 35 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 038/062 044/072 044/071 044/073 047/072 045/065
    0/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W
LVM 060 034/062 041/071 042/071 043/072 045/070 040/061
    0/B 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/W
HDN 067 037/063 039/074 041/073 041/075 043/074 042/067
    0/N 00/U    00/E    00/U    00/U    00/B    22/W
MLS 065 037/059 037/070 043/071 042/073 044/074 044/066
    0/N 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    22/W
4BQ 064 038/059 038/070 041/073 042/074 043/074 042/065
    0/N 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
BHK 059 033/053 033/063 040/069 039/070 041/072 041/062
    0/N 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/W
SHR 064 031/060 035/073 037/071 039/075 041/073 039/065
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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