Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 200127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
727 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Area of PV tracking thru the area has been responsible for the
showers and thunderstorms we have seen since late afternoon.
Outflow boundaries have been numerous and helped the activity as
it has tracked east. As of 720 pm, most of the convection is east
of Billings, with subsidence/drying noted on water vapor imagery
in our west. Have adjusted evening pop/wind/sky grids to account
for the current activity. Storms have been high-based and
generated erratic winds with 30-50 mph gusts observed, ie not
severe, though a few stronger storms did manage to produce small
hail despite the very high freezing levels. Main concerns are with
regard to fire weather and ongoing wildfires.

Weak cold front will slide in from the west later tonight bringing
a few degrees of cooling for our west tomorrow. Our east will push
100 degrees again on Wednesday.



.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Showers and thunderstorms were forming over central and western
areas this afternoon, streaming off to the northeast as a weak
shortwave embedded in southwest flow aloft moves through the
region. Temperatures ranged from the 90s to near 100 degrees.

Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across the area through
the afternoon and evening as the aforementioned shortwave advects
moisture and instability aloft through the region. Gusty winds
are possible with any thunderstorm given the large dewpoint
spreads and inverted-v soundings. Convection should gradually
taper off later this evening.

Generally hot and dry weather can be expected through the short
term with high pressure dominating. Weak disturbances moving
through the southwest flow over the area will bring at least a
slight chance for showers/thunderstorms most afternoons/evenings
over the mountains with less activity elsewhere. Temperatures will
range from the 90s to near 100 degrees through the short term. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Friday setting up to be a critical fire weather day with a cold
front moving through the region during the afternoon hours. Timing
still a question of if the front is timed in the late afternoon or
evening since it has slowed up past few runs...but currently looks
like it will arrive around peak heating. Will be very hot ahead of
the front with compressional warming pushing temperatures to 10 to
15 degrees above normal. Unstable conditions ahead of the front
followed by a significant wind shift to northwest during the late
afternoon could cause problems for any existing fires. Could be a
stray thunderstorm but environment does not look real favorable.

Cooler on Saturday and Sunday as behind the front as the ridge
continues to be suppressed a bit by trailing disturbances. GFS
extends this trend into early next week while the ECMWF is more
aggressive bringing the warming back. Either way its summer
weather and mainly dry...just a matter of how hot temperatures
will get. borsum



Isolated thunderstorms continue across eastern routes this
evening...but should dissipate in most locations by around
midnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail. AAG



    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 063/095 062/095 065/097 060/087 059/091 060/092 061/091
    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 053/093 051/094 056/091 049/085 048/089 051/090 051/090
    22/T    11/U    12/T    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 060/096 060/097 061/099 057/087 057/092 059/093 058/092
    21/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 069/100 065/097 068/100 061/087 060/092 063/093 063/092
    21/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 065/102 063/098 067/101 060/088 059/092 061/093 061/092
    20/G    11/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 066/100 062/094 064/097 059/084 056/088 058/089 058/088
    21/U    10/U    12/T    21/B    11/U    11/B    11/B
SHR 058/099 057/096 061/098 055/087 053/090 056/092 056/091
    21/U    11/U    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B




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