Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 202125
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
325 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

The moderate ridging over the Rockies and high plains today will
be subjected to short wave energy moving across southern Canada.
This will create modest height falls, and combined with weak
impulse energy under the ridge from the southwest and relatively
high dewpoints (moisture), will produce some thunderstorms late
today through the evening. Freezing levels are fairly high, and
since forcing is not that special, we feel large hail is not much
of a threat today. Rather the main threat from storms is probably
wet microbursts/strong wind gusts. Convection will push east
overnight with a cooler more stable air mass moving in late.
Wednesday through Thursday continues to look pretty breezy with
seasonal temperatures, and little if any chance of precipitation.
BT

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Cool NW flow will remain over the region Fri/Sat. Models differ in
timing/strength of potential shortwaves, and latest model trends
are overall drier, but greatest chance of showers looks to be
Fri/Fri night. The potential also exists for some snow over the
high elevations, and there could be impacts to travel over
Beartooth Pass early Sat, if there is precipitation. Temps Fri/Sat
will be below normal with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70F
across the lower elevations each day.

Heights will build with upper ridging from the west early next
week, and temps will respond accordingly, with highs getting back
well into the 80s by Mon/Tue. Wx looks dry Sun/Mon, but
approaching Pacific shortwave could bring a risk of thunderstorms
by Tue with thermal trof over central/eastern MT.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front
through the area late today into tonight. These will be high-
based storms with strong wind gusts, small hail and heavy rain
being the main threats. Expect local/brief MVFR/IFR with any
heavier showers, otherwise VFR flight conditions will prevail.
Gusty NW will develop behind the frontal passage, with 20-30 kt
gusts mainly east of KBIL on Wednesday. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/083 052/078 048/068 047/069 046/077 052/085 057/086
    30/U    00/U    12/W    32/W    10/U    00/U    03/T
LVM 053/081 043/074 040/066 040/066 039/075 043/082 048/083
    20/U    00/U    13/W    32/W    00/U    00/U    03/T
HDN 062/084 052/079 048/069 044/070 043/078 047/087 056/088
    30/U    00/U    13/W    32/W    00/U    00/U    02/T
MLS 065/083 052/077 048/069 046/070 045/078 050/086 057/089
    20/U    00/U    12/W    21/B    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 063/083 054/078 047/069 045/067 044/075 050/084 056/088
    30/U    10/U    12/W    32/W    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 061/081 049/075 045/067 041/066 041/074 046/082 053/086
    20/N    00/U    12/W    21/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 057/081 050/074 046/066 044/064 039/073 045/082 051/085
    31/B    11/U    13/W    32/W    10/U    00/U    02/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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