Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 120909
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
309 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday night...

A weak disturbance moving east through the region brought a few
light rain showers to northern areas overnight, with some light
snow to the southwest mountains.

West to southwest flow over the area today will allow
temperatures to warm into the 50s to around 60 degrees. Precipitation
begins moving into western areas this afternoon and evening as a
trough approaches the region. The trough is expected to split,
with the majority of the energy diving south and east into the
central Rockies. A jet max overhead, along with moisture,
instability and upslope flow will bring periods of precipitation
into Wednesday night. Precipitation is expected to diminish from
north to south Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures
mainly in the upper 30s to around 50 degrees can be expected on
Wednesday. The mountains and foothills will have the best chance
(60-100%) of precipitation. South central zones will have a 40-70%
chance of precipitation, with the east having the lowest
(20-40%). Precipitation is expected to be all snow in the
mountains, with a rain and snow mix becoming all snow over the
foothills, and mainly rain over the lower elevations with a
rain/snow mix at night and morning hours.

Mountains could pick up around a half inch of liquid precipitation
or more through Wednesday night, with the foothills getting 0.20
to 0.30 inches, and the plains generally up to tenth of an inch.
As far as snowfall potential, the Beartooth/Absarokas and Bighorn
mountains have a 60-80% chance of picking up 6 inches or more of
snowfall from this system. Foothill locations like Red Lodge have
around a 65% chance of picking up 2 inches or more of snowfall,
with a 25% chance of 4 or more inches. Outside of the foothills,
little snowfall accumulation is expected below 4500 feet. Billings
currently has a 12% chance of seeing measurable snow (0.1 inches
or more). Surfaces that are wet or slushy during the day could
become icy at night. Have gone ahead and issued Winter Weather
Advisories for the western foothills and the Beartooth and Red
Lodge foothills, in effect from this evening through Wednesday
evening. Have also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Bighorn Mountains, in effect from tonight through Wednesday night.
Will let the day shift make the decision on possible advisories
for the foothill locations east of the Bighorns, as temperatures
and accumulations are more uncertain, with most of the
precipitation falling during the day Wednesday for those
locations. STP

Thursday through Tuesday...

A deep, closed low over the SW US will keep northerly flow over
the area Thursday. A positively tilted trough axis over eastern
MT will shoot a backdoor cold front across the area, Thursday
night into Friday morning. With this cold front, another round of
precipitation is depicted by models. Probabilities are not very
high though, with the Big Horns and SW slopes in the
Absaroka/Beartooths seeing a 30% chance of precipitation. High
temps on Thursday will be in the 40s up to 50. Heights will rise
on Friday, bringing high temps back into the mid-upper 50s.

Another cold front comes through the state, Saturday into Sunday,
with more chances for precipitation. Once more, the highest
chances for precip exist in the mountains. While the latest NBM is
struggling to depict precip of significance Sat-Sun, a few models
are showing a favorable upslope pattern for the mountains. In
that case, snow accumulations are possible, the extent of
potential accumulations is not known due to the great uncertainty.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday in the 40s and low 50s.

Sunday into Tuesday, north-northwesterly flow will persist, with a
ridge building over the Western US. Rising heights with the ridge
has forecasted temps in the 60s for Monday and Tuesday.

Matos

&&

.AVIATION...

Chances for precipitation will increase from west to east today,
with the highest chances in the mountains. Precip type will be
snow above 4500ft, rain below. Rain/snow showers at KLVM in the
morning. Rain/snow shower chances will reach the central and
eastern terminals by this evening, continuing into Wednesday
morning. Expect mtn obscurations and VFR conditions, with periods
of MVFR associated with showers and low cigs.

Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 035/050 029/049 028/057 036/052 027/050 030/064
    1/E 74/O    21/B    00/U    01/B    10/B    00/B
LVM 050 030/041 026/043 024/051 030/048 028/049 030/058
    4/W 75/S    21/B    00/U    01/B    00/B    00/U
HDN 060 034/052 028/048 024/058 033/052 024/048 025/064
    1/B 75/O    21/B    00/U    01/B    11/B    00/B
MLS 058 035/051 027/042 024/055 033/044 022/040 022/055
    0/B 32/R    10/E    00/U    00/N    00/B    00/B
4BQ 059 036/050 029/043 024/055 033/047 022/042 023/058
    0/B 44/R    21/E    00/U    00/N    10/B    00/U
BHK 057 031/051 025/038 022/051 027/039 017/037 017/050
    0/B 11/E    11/E    00/U    00/N    00/B    00/B
SHR 057 031/044 026/042 019/052 030/046 022/043 023/058
    0/B 88/O    41/E    00/U    01/N    11/B    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 56-66.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight MDT Wednesday night FOR ZONES 64-65.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6
      AM MDT Thursday FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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