Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 150703
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1203 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...

Freezing rain being reported at the airport in Livingston and
likely in the Big Timber area as well. Issued a winter weather
advisory to cover this light icing through 4 am, though expect a
transition to snow before that. Travel will be difficult I-90 and
US191 in this area. Please use caution and slow down if freezing
rain is encountered. Chambers

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

The arctic front was progressing well through the region. At 3 PM
it was already through Miles City and Ekalaka and progressing
steadily south and west through the forecast area. Bands of heavy
snow were developing along and behind the arctic front.
Visibilities were down to a quarter of mile in Baker after the
front pushed through with heavy snow. While the snow has mostly
ended in Miles City and Baker, it will develop and spread
southwestward with the arctic front as is shown on current RADAR
trends. The snow should arrive in Billings/Roundup, Sheridan and
the Sheridan foothills in the next 2 hours. Front continues
towards the Beartooth Foothills this evening and eventually the
snow will reach these locations after 6pm tonight.

For the lower elevations away from the mountain foothills folks
should expect snow to last around for 3 to 6 hours. Accumulations
will generally be be around 1 to 3 inches, but the short duration
in which this snow will fall could lead to difficult travel
conditions at times this evening so leave extra time in your
commute. Wet roads could quickly freeze this evening as the cold
arctic air moves in. The northeast winds behind the front will be
more efficient in producing snow in as they interact with our
mountain foothills in locations from Red Lodge-Pryor-Lodge Grass-Sheridan
so folks should expect totals there around 2 to 5 inches
beginning this evening and lasting until the early morning hours
Monday.

In addition to the snow,the main story is the cold temperatures
anticipated behind the front. Baker and Miles City have already
dropped into the teens this evening and temps are rapidly
dropping to our north and northeast where the source of the
airmass is coming from. Clearing skies and continued cold air
advection should allow temperatures to quickly drop in eastern
Montana tonight. Wind speeds will be slow to lessen so wind
chills around 30 to 40 degrees below zero are anticipated tonight
from Northern Rosebud county eastwards where Wind Chill advisories
are in effect.

Cold conditions expected on Monday with many locations seeing high
temperatures in the single digits to below zero. Another cold
night is anticipated Monday into Tuesday with temperatures well
below zero in eastern Montana. Warmer temperatures will begin
working into the region from the western Mountains beginning
early Tuesday morning. This warming trend will continue through
Tuesday afternoon as the arctic airmass begins its retreat. As was
typical during the last few arctic retreats, kept the low-lying
locations in eastern Montana cooler as it takes time to scour out
the arctic airmass in locations like Forsyth, Miles City and other
similar locations. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

Broad ridging on Wednesday with southwest flow aloft increasing
moisture flowing into the southwest mountains. This pattern also
allows the development of leeside troughing which brings a warming
trend through Thursday with moderation of temperatures limited by
presence of snow cover.

Pattern changes on Friday as a positively tilted trough shifts
into the region with pulses of energy bringing chances for snow.
Cooling trend with less downslope and colder air aloft. In general
the arrival of the trough is as it becomes a splitting system so
the more dynamic portion will remain further south so snow product
does not look significant with this change.

Troughiness begins to weaken Saturday night into Sunday as a
stronger jet stream begins moving into the Pacific Northwest and
brings some minor height rises to the area. Still looks like
relatively weak mixing with regional snow cover helping keep
temperatures below normal. borsum


&&

.AVIATION...

Area of snow and strong north winds will continue to move west
across the forecast through 08Z. Periods of IFR and LIFR will
continue for KBIL and KSHR with this snow. KLVM will see a period
of MVFR as the snow arrives with less intensity late tonight.
Conditions will be improve at all sites by Monday morning.
borsum/Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 002/009 906/025 014/038 024/044 020/033 017/029 013/028
    52/J    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/J    21/B    11/B
LVM 012/029 005/039 023/044 029/044 023/037 014/031 012/033
    72/J    00/N    01/B    12/W    43/W    21/B    12/S
HDN 907/007 909/022 006/036 016/043 017/034 014/029 011/029
    31/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/J    21/B    11/B
MLS 921/904 920/015 003/031 018/037 017/030 012/024 008/022
    00/I    00/U    01/U    11/B    22/J    12/S    11/B
4BQ 913/002 913/024 008/036 019/041 020/034 016/029 011/028
    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/S    11/B    11/B
BHK 922/906 923/016 003/036 017/043 021/038 013/026 007/023
    00/I    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/O    11/E    21/B
SHR 002/012 905/028 011/039 019/042 022/035 016/029 012/031
    51/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    13/S    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Chill Advisory in effect until noon MST today FOR ZONES
      31>33-36-37.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 AM MST this
      morning FOR ZONES 38-58.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 4 AM MST early this
      morning FOR ZONES 40-41-65.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST this
      morning FOR ZONE 56.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 AM MST this
      morning FOR ZONE 99.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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