Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 221959
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
159 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri..Sat...Sun...

Upper-level shortwave continues to push in over Western Montana
aiding the development of a surface low over the eastern Plains.
Currently noting dewpoints well into the 60s across Carter and
Fallon counties this afternoon. Anticipate thunderstorm
development to increase over the forecast area this afternoon.
Storms from near Billings to Rosebud County could produce strong
wind gusts or small hail. From Rosebud county eastward large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible late this
afternoon into the evening hours.

Temperatures reach well into the upper 90s to the low 100s over
the Plains this afternoon with compressional warming ahead of an
approaching cold front.

Tonight, behind the front a shift to northwest winds between 20
and 30 mph. Strong northwest winds stay up Saturday
morning/afternoon over the eastern half of the forecast area with
humidity levels below 20 percent which could cause critical fire
conditions.

Slightly cooler conditions Saturday and Sunday with
temps in the upper 80s to low 90s across most of the area, with
only an isolated chance of a shower/thunderstorm each afternoon.
Walsh


.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...


No significant changes were made to the long term grids. Zonal
flow will prevail over the region Monday through Wednesday,
limiting the chance of any decent monsoonal surge, but with a
series of weak shortwaves in the westerly flow we will carry at
least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day. Best potential
for storms will be in our east where low level moisture is higher.
Temps should stay a little above normal for the first half of next
week. Expect highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, not
extreme heat given the progressive flow.

Models remain in good overall agreement that central CONUS ridge
will retrograde to the west by the end of the week as several
troughs track southeast from western Canada across our region.
As a result, we anticipate a slight cooling trend along with an
improved chance of daily thunderstorms next Thursday and Friday.
BT
&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact the
region this afternoon and evening. Storms near KLVM-KBIL-KSHR will
be high-based and could produced erratic wind gusts. Further
east...a few severe storms could produce hail and strong winds
near KMLS-KBHK. Eastern storms will also have a greater chance of
producing local MVFR flight conditions. Expect a cold front to
bring increased W-NW winds by evening in western
areas...transitioning east overnight. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/086 058/089 060/095 063/093 063/092 061/087 059/086
    20/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 051/083 048/089 051/094 052/093 052/090 052/086 050/086
    21/N    11/U    12/T    21/U    12/T    23/T    32/T
HDN 060/087 055/091 057/096 058/095 059/093 057/088 055/087
    20/N    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
MLS 066/087 059/090 062/097 065/095 065/092 063/087 061/087
    40/N    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 064/088 057/091 062/097 062/096 062/094 062/089 059/088
    30/N    12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
BHK 063/084 055/088 058/093 061/092 061/087 059/085 057/084
    41/N    01/U    12/T    23/T    32/T    23/T    32/T
SHR 057/087 052/090 053/096 056/095 056/094 056/088 054/087
    20/U    11/U    11/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
      Saturday evening FOR ZONES 131>133.
WY...Fire Weather Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
      Saturday evening FOR ZONE 274.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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