Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 282059
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
259 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BRINGING INTENSE HEAT TO THE ENTIRE REGION. AREA OF PV EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CRAZIES/BELTS/SNOWIES AND DRIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAKING IT A LITTLE OFF THE TERRAIN. NOT MUCH
GOING ON FURTHER EAST AT THIS TIME BUT AM CURIOUS TO SEE IF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING EASTERN MT IS ENOUGH TO GET SOME CONVECTION
GOING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATER AND THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. NOT SURE HOW IT WILL PAN
OUT BUT HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD TS IN OUR EAST BEGINNING AT
00Z.

HOTTEST DAY OF THE CURRENT HOT SPELL LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW AS RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE
PAC NW. WARMEST 700MB TEMPS OF +18C WILL BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...
AND WE WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY SFC WIND...BUT MIXING OF THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OR NEAR 100F EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WE HAVE HAD YET IN 2015...AND A SOMEWHAT EARLY TIME OF
THE SEASON TO BE TALKING ABOUT TRIPLE DIGITS. MONSOONAL PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SPILL INTO OUR WEST BY LATE AFTN/EVNG
ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO RISE TO NEAR AN INCH AND RESULTING IN
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
BILLINGS. THIS HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS. POSSIBILITY OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS SHORTWAVE FINALLY PASSES THROUGH...WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...SO SHOULD SEE ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BUT JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY PER THE MIXED NW WINDS AND STILL VERY
HIGH HEIGHTS. HAVE TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS UP JUST A BIT TO THE MID
OR EVEN UPPER 90S.

BREEZY AND DRY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. SOMETHING TO
THINK ABOUT...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SOME LIGHTNING MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

FLATTENING RIDGE WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY MID WEEK.
THICKNESS VALUES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT
WAS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE CWA.

A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
FOR BYZ CWA LOOK MINIMAL.

ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
NEXT SATURDAY AND DRAG WITH IT A COLD FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY.
MODEL PW VALUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES ARE ABOVE AN
INCH. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SINGER

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED NEAR TERRAIN
FEATURES IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR ONE OF THESE STORMS TO IMPACT KLVM OR KBIL BY THIS EVENING.
BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SINGER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/100 070/096 064/089 062/085 061/088 064/091 062/085
    00/U    22/T    10/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 056/100 059/094 054/091 053/086 053/089 054/091 053/086
    12/T    32/T    10/B    11/B    11/B    11/U    11/B
HDN 059/102 065/098 060/091 061/087 060/090 062/094 061/087
    00/G    22/T    10/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 063/099 069/097 063/087 061/084 059/087 061/092 061/084
    20/U    12/T    10/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    12/T
4BQ 061/097 065/094 063/086 061/083 058/086 061/091 061/084
    10/U    12/T    10/B    21/B    11/U    11/U    12/T
BHK 060/094 063/093 060/083 059/080 055/082 057/088 059/081
    20/U    03/T    21/B    31/B    11/U    11/U    12/T
SHR 057/095 060/093 058/086 057/082 054/083 056/088 056/083
    10/U    12/T    11/B    22/T    11/B    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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