Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180320
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
920 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2016

.UPDATE...

Forecast looks to be on track and only a minor tweak to
precipitation chances were made with this evenings update. An area
of showers and thunderstorms continue across Powder River and
Carter Counties with just very isolated showers elsewhere. As a
result, precip chances were lowered across the central areas to
just a slight chance. Best chances will come late tonight when a
cold front is expected to move across the forecast area late this
evening into the early morning hours tonight. Better chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive with the front.
Expect much cooler temperatures Thursday along with increasing
shower coverage during the afternoon and evening. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Thu and Fri...

Late this evening, a surface cold front will dive southward
through the area. Hi-res models show an initial round of
convection along the front and over the southern foothills and
mountains through the afternoon on Thursday. At this time, the
forecast rainfall amount for Billings on Thursday has trended
down with much of the rainfall remaining over the mountains and
foothills to the south. Thursday will be significantly more cloudy
and cooler than today with highs in the lower 70s. Late Thursday
night into Friday morning the upper-level support slides southward
from Canada bringing the best shot of widespread rainfall to the
region. Conditions above 9000 ft should be cold enough to see snow
or rain/snow mix early Friday morning. Anticipating storm total
rainfall accumulations to range from a half to one inch through
Friday. Highs will struggle to get out of the 60s on Friday under
overcast skies and northerly flow. Clouds will push off to the
southeast as ridging slides in on Saturday morning, allowing for
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s across much of the
area. Walsh

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Saturday will be a transition day as airmass begins to dry out
but hotter weather west of the Continental Divide will keep
upslope pressure gradients over the forecast area. Big factor will
be how much moisture is retained to slow down solar heating and
the presence of any upslope clouds left behind the system. Upped
temperatures a few degrees but still below operational mex
guidance of 80 degrees. Precipitation lingers in the mountains and
southeast Montana but not expecting anything significant.

Drier weather and return to summerlike temperatures for Sunday and
most of next week. Westerly flow aloft is the main feature with
models hinting at downslopish pressure gradients through the
period aiding mixing. Weak front crosses the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday which causes minor cooldown but expect dry
conditions. borsum

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers are possible over much of southern MT and north
central WY tonight and Thu, with thunderstorms also possible
tonight. Local MVFR conditions are possible in showers. Mountains
will become obscured by Thu morning.  RMS/Hooley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/071 051/065 048/073 051/083 056/089 058/085 057/079
    34/T    86/W    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
LVM 061/073 048/066 041/073 045/085 050/088 049/085 048/080
    35/T    76/W    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 064/075 052/065 046/074 049/085 054/090 056/087 055/083
    23/T    76/W    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
MLS 066/079 055/067 050/073 051/083 056/092 059/087 058/082
    23/T    67/W    21/B    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 065/077 054/063 048/071 048/081 056/090 059/087 055/082
    35/T    57/W    32/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
BHK 059/078 053/065 046/070 046/079 050/088 054/085 054/080
    22/T    47/W    21/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/B
SHR 061/072 051/060 042/070 045/082 051/088 054/085 052/081
    35/T    78/W    31/B    11/B    11/U    11/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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