Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280416
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
WEB CAMS...SNOTELS AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DID NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. THERE WAS A SPOTTY INCH HERE AND
THERE IN THE SNOTELS...AND EARLIER IN THE EVENING...THE BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS CAM HAD SOME SNOW. SOME RADAR ECHOES WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS ON RADAR AS OF 04Z. TRENDS IN PRESSURE
RISES AND TEMPERATURES SHOWED THE FRONT WAS THROUGH THE AREA.
JUDITH GAP HAD SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOWED SPOTTY QPF W OF KBIL OF A FEW HUNDRETHS
OF AN INCH. THE SREF SHOWED LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY LOCATION
RECEIVING /0.01/ INCHES OF QPF.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN
LEFT THEM ALONE AFTER 06Z AS THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK VORTICITY WILL
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR JUDITH GAP
WHICH SHOULD BE WINDY UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
LATEST METBC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE DECENT COLD ADVECTION.

WEAK VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SAT
SUPPORTING SNOW CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. ANOTHER VORTICITY
LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON SUN DUE TO A MODERATING AIRMASS. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA LATE TONIGHT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE ISN`T MUCH FORCING OR DYNAMICS
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERIDAN-BILLINGS-ROUNDUP LINE WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. AS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR...MAINLY AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES AT
BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY AS
A RESULT OF TONIGHTS REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FLOW ALOFT FOR
SUNDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING AND EARLY MARCH SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY
EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
FREEZING. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL APPEARS ON TAP TO HELP DRIVE
MONDAY TEMPS BACK TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THAT SAID...LATEST RUNS
ARE TRENDING THE ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE AREA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY CUT OFF THAT WARMUP. KEPT
GOING TEMPS IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
FURTHER TIMING ISSUES. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS AS FAR EAST
AS BILLINGS...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGIONS. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD CANADIAN AIR FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS WILL BE RECORDED EARLY IN THE DAY IF NOT AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP IN
RETURN OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD
NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SINKS BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
DROP TO MVFR ON OCCASION FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MAINLY VFR BY
LATE MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. TWH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004/020 006/030 017/039 008/010 903/025 015/044 029/050
    22/S    00/U    00/B    64/S    20/B    01/B    11/B
LVM 001/019 901/029 015/038 004/011 909/026 015/043 031/046
    33/S    21/U    01/B    74/S    21/B    11/B    12/W
HDN 007/024 004/033 012/041 009/012 903/024 011/044 025/050
    22/S    01/U    00/U    54/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 002/021 006/029 012/038 007/013 000/021 010/043 026/048
    01/E    12/J    00/U    33/S    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 003/019 003/030 011/039 008/013 902/020 008/045 027/051
    11/B    00/U    00/U    34/S    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 901/019 004/025 010/036 006/012 903/018 006/040 024/046
    01/B    12/J    00/U    12/S    11/B    01/B    11/B
SHR 001/018 001/027 006/034 007/007 910/018 007/044 024/047
    13/S    11/U    00/U    55/S    21/B    01/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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