Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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435
FXUS65 KBYZ 162137
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
237 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Winds continue to periodically hit advisory criteria at
Livingston and Nye this afternoon. Surface pressure falls continue
over the area...and gradient remains tight this afternoon.
Guidance and local studies keeps winds at or near advisory
criteria into this evening, so will keep highlights in place. The
rest of the western and central plains also continue to be breezy
this afternoon. Winds are expected to taper off this evening.

Mild temps persist today...thanks to downslope flow. A weak cold
front will push through the area tonight, as an upper trof moves
through. This should result in isold to sct showers this evening
and overnight. limited cold air should keep the precip as rain or
a rain/snow mix.

Small scale ridge builds back in Friday as shortwave energy
continues to move northeast out of the area. Will linger low PoPs
over the east Friday morning as the wave exits into the Dakotas.
Temps will be a bit cooler, but still expect highs above seasonal
average.

Southwest flow aloft will increase through Friday and persist
through Saturday. This will bring continued PoPs to western
mountain areas. Energy moving into th area looks too weak to have
much impact into the plains, so have kept plains areas dry through
the remainder of the period. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Model ensembles show relatively narrow spreads through much of the
extended period, thus indicating average or better agreement.
Above normal temperatures and periods of rain/snow showers (mainly
Sunday night) can be expected with some Pacific short wave energy
moving across our region.

The main impact period still appears to be latter part of
Wednesday through Friday as an upper low tracks through the
central Rockies. The progged track would allow for colder air to
infiltrate our region and combine with plenty of Pacific moisture
to produce a winter storm across southern Montana and northern
Wyoming. Details will likely vary in the coming days, but at this
time the Northeast BigHorns and Sheridan County, as well as the SE
corner of Montana look the most susceptible to a high impact
event as confirmed by CIPS extended analogs. So based on basic
pattern recognition and unusually good similarity this far out between
the ECMWF and GFS, it seems prudent to nudge PoP`s up and perhaps
lower temps a few degrees for this time frame. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

SW winds will remain strong along the western foothills with
gusts of 35-50 kts at KLVM the rest of the day, but gradually
diminishing to 30-40 kts overnight. A Pacific disturbance will
bring a few showers to lower elevations tonight, but flight
conditions will remain VFR. Mountains may occasionally be
obscured in snow showers tonight. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/053 031/050 036/056 035/055 037/059 033/045 026/034
    21/N    01/E    11/B    31/B    02/W    22/W    46/S
LVM 034/049 026/050 035/054 031/049 037/052 027/042 022/033
    22/W    02/W    12/W    21/B    23/W    24/W    45/S
HDN 032/052 027/049 029/054 030/053 030/056 028/044 023/036
    21/U    01/E    11/B    41/B    01/B    22/W    46/S
MLS 033/049 028/047 029/051 032/050 031/052 030/045 025/035
    22/W    00/B    00/B    31/B    01/B    20/B    35/S
4BQ 033/053 028/051 032/056 033/053 031/058 032/047 026/034
    12/J    00/B    00/B    21/B    00/B    10/B    56/S
BHK 033/047 026/046 030/052 033/049 031/052 030/045 024/032
    12/W    00/B    00/B    22/W    01/B    10/B    35/S
SHR 030/050 025/051 030/055 029/053 031/059 028/046 022/034
    21/B    11/B    00/B    21/B    00/B    12/W    66/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MST this evening FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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