Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 010340
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
940 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

LOWERED POPS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. STILL LEFT SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP NEAR THE NORTHEAST-FACING SLOPES IN MY SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. CLEARING SKIES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR
ADDITIONAL CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. AT THIS TIME THINK THAT FOG
WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF BILLINGS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND A SMALLER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED. REST OF
FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED. RMS/MEIER

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE VERY COOL AND
SOMETIMES WET WEATHER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MORNING SUN
ACROSS THE EAST WAS QUICKLY REPLACED WITH CU BY LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS PRECIP SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE. THE CU FIELD
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING A PARTLY
CLOUDY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN AREAS. GIVEN THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES...FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS INCLUDING BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN RIVER AREAS EAST TO MILES CITY VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY & MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM EACH
DAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM TO NORMAL VALUES SUNDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...SOMETHING THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...


MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION MENTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE
70S MOST AREAS AND HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING
THIS PERIOD. NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST US BY
THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT AND UNSTABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEGIN TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR
TO BE COOLER AND WETTER AS UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA
AND DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE DOMINATES OUR REGION. CONTINUED WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING BACK TO NORMAL. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...


CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOME LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER COULD STILL CAUSE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT.
A SMALL AREA OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SOUTH OF KBIL COULD
GENERATE SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. RMS/MEIER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/061 039/066 042/074 046/076 048/077 049/072 046/064
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
LVM 031/060 030/066 036/072 039/075 042/076 043/071 042/061
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/T    45/W
HDN 034/062 035/066 037/074 040/077 042/079 044/074 044/065
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
MLS 036/063 038/069 040/074 045/078 048/078 050/074 048/066
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
4BQ 032/060 034/064 037/072 040/077 044/078 046/075 045/065
    00/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    12/T    44/W
BHK 031/061 036/067 039/072 041/074 043/075 046/071 043/062
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    33/W
SHR 028/059 032/065 034/068 037/072 040/075 041/071 040/062
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    12/T    45/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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