Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 282216
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
316 PM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Short term forecast dominated by strong storm system over the
upper Great Plains that is currently located over southeast South
Dakota with a surface pressure around 975mb. This system is
already producing strong wind gusts to 50 mph as far west as
Billings and significant snow and blowing snow into far eastern
Montana. Latest model forecasts are consistent with holding this
system near its current location through mid day tomorrow, then
drifting it slowly into Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon. As a
result will continue to see strong wind gusts across the eastern
two thirds of the forecast area for the next 24 hours or so,
along with bands of light to moderate snow rotating in from the
northeast. The most persistent snowfall can be expected along and
east of a Miles City to Broadus line which combined with the
strong winds will create winter storm conditions.

The only change to going winter weather highlites is the addition
of the Sheridan Foothills and Southern Big Horn county to the
Winter Weather Advisory. Bands of light to possibly moderate snow
combined with strong northerly wind gusts will create difficult
travel along I-90 in this area tonight through tomorrow morning,
especially over higher hilltop locations such as Aberdeen Hill on
the state line.

Didn`t make much change to the going snowfall forecast for the
next 36 hours. Still looks like 3 to 6 inches over southeast
Montana, tapering to around 2 inches in Sheridan and western
Rosebud county. Locally heavier bands of snow are likely but exact
position will be hard to pinpoint, along with heavier
accumulations on north facing slopes of higher hills across the
area including Lame Deer Divide. Further east, expect little snow
accumulation for the most part from snow showers. However micro-
bands may develop at times and result in some light accumulation
in some very narrow NW-SE streaks. Again where these set up will
be very difficult to pin down ahead of time. Travelers should be
advised that radar is not going to show the whole picture with
this storm system over our eastern zones as precipitation will be
over shot by radar beams from area radars, and due to the heavy
influence of the surface winds in blowing and drifting the snow
around. Please check with state DOTs before heading out for the
latest road conditions and for any closures.

Once storm system begins to move east tomorrow afternoon will see
gradual improvement from west to east across the area. Areas along
the eastern state line will probably take until early Wednesday
morning to clear out and for winds to diminish. A quick moving
system slides in from the northwest in the wake of the departing
upper low. This system will bring snow to the western mountains
and maybe some light accumulation to the western foothills and
valleys. Will see over the next few model runs if this system
slows down a bit which would increase the potential for
accumulating snow over the western half of the forecast area.
Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

An unsettled and progressive pattern will prevail over the
region through the extended period. No big storms were in sight,
but there could be some windy periods. Models were in fairly good
agreement until late in the period.

An upper trough will rotate into the area on Thursday and elongate
and split Thu. night. Had low PoPs over the area for rain and
snow showers. An upper ridge will build in from the W on Fri. with
a drier airmass. A strong pacific jet will dive SE into the
Pacific NW Fri. night, bringing jet divergence to the region.
Moisture will also move back into the area in a NW flow, spreading
scattered rain and snow showers into the area through Saturday.
The pattern will support windy conditions around KLVM and Nye,
Fri. night and Saturday. Models differed with pattern details by
Sunday, so went with blended guidance for low PoPs. Windy
conditions around the gap areas will continue at least into
Sunday. The next trough approaches on Monday with another chance
of rain and snow showers.

Temperatures will be around normal through the period. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

Snow will continue to develop this evening from KBIL E and S including
over the KSHR area. In addition gusty NW surface winds with gusts
to 40 kt will occur through the night. Expect conditions to
deteriorate to LIFR/IFR over KMLS and KSHR. The rest of the area
will have widely scattered to scattered snow showers with MVFR
conditions. Gusty NW winds will affect KBIL. The NE Bighorns will
be obscured and there will be areas of obscuration over the
Crazys, Beartooths and Absarokas. LIFR/IFR conditions and gusty
winds will continue from Rosebud County E on Tue. morning. The
snow will start to decrease Tue. afternoon. Expect decreasing snow
showers over the remainder of the area. There will be areas of
mountain obscuration on Tuesday. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/038 023/038 025/038 023/037 027/044 029/044 029/040
    32/J    00/U    22/W    21/B    22/W    22/R    22/W
LVM 023/034 019/035 024/036 021/035 028/043 030/044 029/038
    44/J    11/U    42/J    21/B    33/W    32/R    33/J
HDN 028/037 021/038 023/038 020/036 023/043 026/043 025/041
    63/W    11/U    22/W    21/B    23/W    22/O    22/W
MLS 026/034 022/033 017/034 018/034 021/044 023/042 023/038
    87/S    32/J    12/J    11/B    13/W    22/O    22/J
4BQ 025/031 020/033 016/036 016/032 018/042 021/041 021/038
    +9/S    31/E    12/J    21/B    03/W    21/B    22/J
BHK 024/028 019/026 012/028 012/029 015/039 018/037 017/034
    +9/S    54/J    12/J    21/B    12/J    21/B    22/J
SHR 024/031 019/034 019/034 014/031 015/040 021/040 021/037
    74/J    21/B    22/J    21/B    12/J    11/B    22/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MST Wednesday
      FOR ZONES 31-58.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MST Wednesday FOR
      ZONES 32-33-36-37.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONE 38.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONE 99.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MST Tuesday FOR
      ZONE 98.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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