Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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574
FXUS64 KTSA 251037
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
537 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Thunderstorm potential affecting the terminals will be in the main
aviation concern through the next 12 hours or so. Ongoing activity
in N Central OK and SE KS having a difficult time making it into
NE OK, but there is enough concern to warrant at least VCTS, and
possibly TEMPO, mention at BVO/TUL/RVS early in the TAF period.
The determination of VCTS or TEMPO mention at these sites will be
made based on radar trends right before issuance time. Thunderstorm
potential will shift into the remaining terminals largely during
the afternoon hours. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
at all terminals, with any category reductions relegated to during
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The mid level ridge that has brought the hot and dry weather for
the past week is breaking down and shifting west, thanks in part
to a decent shortwave trough sliding across the Midwest and Great
Lakes. The concomitant synoptic cold front lies from northern
Missouri across central into southwest KS. Widely scattered storms
are occurring along and north of the front, with a larger area of
showers and storms out over the central High Plains. The guidance
differs as to how aggressively this convection pushes into NE
OK/NW AR later on this morning. The operational HRRR is by far the
most aggressive, but doesn`t not appear to be verifying well so
far this morning based on latest radar trends. The HRRRX and NAM
are in good agreement and are more bullish on making a good push
into the forecast area, and even the new 00z ECMWF is starting to
agree, backing off from its 12z run. All models agree that
scattered afternoon convection will occur from W AR into SE OK,
and most likely near the stalling synoptic front near the KS
border. Given the uncertainties in this forecast, confidence is
lower than usual, and thus I`m inclined to go more middle of the
road on pops. As for temps, if the convection doesn`t make an
aggressive push into NE OK, highs will likely top out in the mid
to upper 90s across much of eastern OK, yielding heat indices
right around the 105 degree range in some spots. However, citing
those same uncertainties regarding the convective forecast, I will
elect not to issue any heat headlines and will let dayshift
reevaluate.

The boundary will wash out and pops will drop off as we head
toward the middle part of the week. Temps will remain in the low
to mid 90s Tues/Wed.

The ECMWF has been consistent in developing NW flow over the
Plains for the latter part of the week as another decent shortwave
trough dives across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Seems like a good
bet that an MCS will organize to our north and west Wed night and
sweep through the region Thursday. Could see a repeat performance
Friday and Saturday as well. Pops will taper off as the weekend
comes to a close.

Mid level ridging will become reestablished over the central part
of the country going into next week...suggesting low precip
chances and a return to hotter weather is likely.

Lacy

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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