Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 042331

531 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.



Surface high pressure continued to slide to the east southeast
across the Southern Plains this afternoon. Underneath high
pressure...mostly sunny skies and westerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Overnight
tonight...high pressure will push southeast of the CWA in response
to a weak upper level shortwave currently moving east southeast
into the Central Rocky Mountain Region. This will allow for winds
during the night to become more southerly with increasing high
clouds moving into the region ahead of the approaching wave.
Overnight conditions will help to keep low temps a little warmer
compared to last night with low in the mid/upper 20s common.

During the day Friday...breezy south southwesterly winds are
expected across the CWA..which will aid afternoon temperatures to
be a few degrees warmer than today. These conditions could create
some limited areas of fire weather danger for parts of the CWA as
afternoon min relative humidities fall into the low/mid 30 percent
range. The weak upper shortwave is forecast to push southeast
through the region Friday night. Weak warm advection ahead of the
wave could allow for slight chances for a rain shower...though
drier air near the surface could make it hard for any precip to
reach the surface. If there could be enough environmental
cooling...a few light rain showers or even perhaps a snowflake or
two might be possible as temp profiles look to be below freezing
starting around 900-850-mb. Thus...will continue with a very
small pop Friday night into Saturday morning.

Saturday...temps should be a couple degrees cooler with west
northwesterly winds over the CWA...behind the departing upper
shortwave. Southerly winds quickly return Saturday night and
increase Sunday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through the
CWA Sunday afternoon. This front is associated with a closed low
pressure system progged to drop southeast out of Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region and then over toward the East Coast. A
continued lack of moisture should keep the frontal passage dry for
the CWA Sunday. Breezy southerly winds will help to warm temps a
bit again as well as create some limited areas of fire danger.

In the wake of the frontal boundary...a ridge of high pressure
looks to develop over the West Coast while the closed low and
longwave trof holds over the East Coast. This will direct
northerly flow through the Central United States with cooler
temperatures over the CWA for the first half of next week. A
tighter pressure gradient behind the front will increase northerly
winds over the region for Monday. Wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range looks to be possible...which combined with the drier air
over the CWA will increase fire weather dangers again. High to
elevated fire dangers could be possible Monday afternoon.

In the far extended forecast...latest model solutions try to break
down and flatten the ridge late next week...which could bring back
temperatures closer to the seasonal average for the CWA.


.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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