Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL AREA TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT MOST AREA TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN THE 20
TO AROUND 30 MPH RANGE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE CWA.

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 40-60KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO ALSO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEING THAT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN
AS THURSDAYS COLD FRONT REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A
LONGWAVE TROF ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ANOTHER
DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE CWA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL THE MAIN PLAYERS
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCE WITHIN
THE DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE SATURDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA AGAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE REGION.
IF THIS HAPPENS TEMPS COULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT TO THE CWA...INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SUNDAY
SHIFTING THE DRYLINE INTO THE CWA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE REGION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
MONDAY WITH THE EXITING FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





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