Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 152141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
341 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short term concerns include fire weather potential on Saturday and
rain chances Saturday night into Sunday for much of the area.

Upper low now near Baja is forecast to eject out into the Southern
Plains late Saturday, with increasing cloud cover and rain
developing Saturday night. Meanwhile deepening lee side trough
will support strong southwest winds tomorrow over much of
northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas with gusts over 25 miles
per hour. The warm and dry conditions will support rapid fire
spread rates, for any new or ongoing wildfires.

Clouds will be on the increase ahead of the upper level system,
with light rain developing overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
Rain amounts will be light, generally around a quarter of an inch
or less, but any amount will be appreciated given the overall long
term drought.

Next week looks mild and mainly dry through mid week with highs in
the 60s. The extended models differ significantly by Wed/Thu, with
regard to the next upper storm system. For now, we will maintain a
dry forecast. Wednesday and Thursday could be the warmest days of
the next week if upper flow remains more zonal. By the end of the
week, a significant pattern change will be underway, with a
much colder airmass arriving late Thursday into Friday. By
Friday, highs across the region could be in the upper 30s and 40s.
Wintry precipitation could become a concern by next weekend,
depending on tracks and timing of upper features. It`s too early
to focus on specific model solutions, as they will change over
the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  62  44  54 /   0   0  80  20
FSM   29  62  42  55 /   0   0  80  20
MLC   33  62  44  57 /   0   0  80  10
BVO   29  63  42  54 /   0   0  80  20
FYV   28  58  40  51 /   0   0  80  30
BYV   31  59  40  52 /   0   0  90  30
MKO   31  62  43  54 /   0   0  80  20
MIO   33  61  43  53 /   0   0  80  30
F10   33  61  44  54 /   0   0  80  10
HHW   31  59  42  57 /   0   0  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

CORFIDI



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