Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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599
FXUS64 KTSA 260440
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs likely redeveloping overnight in response to low level wind
fields and ample moisture in place. SFC winds have relaxed at all sites
...so have added a WS remark to all sites through 15z At that
time... gradient flow likely to increase as mid to late morning
mixing ensues. Cigs expected to rise to VFR by late morning early
afternoon.  Thunderstorm chances will remain too low through 00z
to include mentioning...but will add a prob group to all sites
after 00z as storms that develop to the west will likely make a
run towards ern OK and nw AR.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline to our west is retreating. Cells have been trying to get
going from north central OK into south central KS during the late
afternoon. A few cores have developed enough to produce
lightning...but so far have not sustained long enough to become
severe. Suspect that as the evening wears on and the SBCINH
increases...it will be even more difficult to get a sustained
updraft. Will continue to monitor. If a cell does become
sustained...very unstable airmass combined with sufficient shear
would suggest rotating updrafts and the all modes of severe
weather. Tornado watch remains in effect for Osage and Pawnee
counties until 9 PM...but that may be extended in time given
latest radar trends.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs likely redeveloping overnight in response to low level wind
fields and ample moisture in place. Cigs likely to raise to VFR
with mid to late morning mixing. Thunderstorm chances will remain
too low through 00z to include mentioning with this TAF issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With the morning thunderstorms well removed from the area
this afternoon...a steamy day is well underway across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. There is the potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon
and evening in the unstable airmass that is in place across the
area. A weakening outflow boundary from the morning convection
currently extends from near Enid to Poteau could provide
the focus for thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that do develop
will more than likely become severe with large hail and damaging
winds the concern. However, the tornado threat is not zero. There is
also the potential for the thunderstorms that develop along the
dry line late this afternoon and evening west of the area could move
into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight or Thursday
morning.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms ramp up Thursday afternoon
into Friday as the upper level low currently over southern California
ejects out across the plains. With the moist and unstable airmass in
place across the region, more severe weather is likely. This activity
will taper off Saturday morning as the upper level low weakens and
moves into the northern Plains.

The unsettled weather continues from late in the weekend into next week
as a series of upper level shortwaves move across the area embedded in a
weakening southwesterly flow aloft. Since the airmass remains virtually
unchanged through this time, the potential for severe weather will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  87  69  82 /  20  40  60  50
FSM   73  84  67  79 /  20  40  60  70
MLC   73  82  68  79 /  10  40  60  70
BVO   70  85  67  81 /  20  40  60  50
FYV   69  81  65  75 /  20  30  60  70
BYV   70  82  64  75 /  20  30  60  70
MKO   71  84  66  79 /  20  40  60  60
MIO   72  86  69  80 /  20  40  60  50
F10   72  83  67  79 /  20  50  60  40
HHW   72  80  67  79 /  10  50  60  70

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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