Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 261130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

MVFR vsbys in scattered thunder will impact the TAF sites from NW to SE
this morning into afternoon...and will be accounted for with VCTS and
tempo groups. Outside of thunder chances...VFR conditions will prevail
until late tonight. Potential for VLIFR cigs and vsbys in dense fog that
develops behind a cold front...especially KBVO and to a lesser
extent across the NW AR sites. MVFR/IFR vsbys possible elsewhere
in patchy fog after 08z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing to our north across Kansas,
but it is uncertain whether this activity builds much south into
Oklahoma this morning. The ECMWF and GFS are most aggressive with
the activity building south, while the NAM, UKMET and recent HRRR
runs are all less aggressive. Will stick close to the blended pops
due to the uncertainty.

A few showers and storms may redevelop later this afternoon into
this evening near a weak surface boundary that will slip south
into the area, but coverage is likely to be limited with the main
upper support moving off to the east. If a storm can get going, it
will have the potential to be strong to marginally severe.

Will have to watch for the potential of some locally dense fog
late tonight in parts of northeast Oklahoma and possibly northwest
Arkansas to the north of the weak decaying frontal boundary.
Unseasonably warm and dry weather will then be the rule Thursday
into next week, with near record temperatures possible in some
places Friday through Monday. Another weak frontal boundary may
dip into the northern part of the forecast area about Sunday and
may knock temperatures down just a bit.

The ECMWF does show a stronger cold front moving into the area
late next week to knock temperatures back closer to normal.
However, the GFS continues the unseasonable warmth right through
next week, so we will just have to wait and see when we can get
some more typical early November weather around here.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.




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