Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150832
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Yet another challenging forecast in what has been an atypical
August thus far. The main emphasis will continue to be on
convective potential thru the remainder of this week. A return to
what will be more typical August weather will come this weekend
into early next week.

An upper disturbance is sliding east over the region this morning
in the zonal flow aloft. This system has fueled a cluster of
showers and storms from SE OK into W AR this morning. This
activity should exit the region by mid morning, leaving a
relatively quiet afternoon and evening for our region. High temps
returning to the low 90s with high humidity will result in heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.

Storm chances will gradually increase tonight into Wednesday as a
shortwave trough currently over the Great Basin moves into the
Plains. The concomitant cold front will push down into the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another round of storms.
Severe potential should increase some as the flow aloft
strengthens near the basal portion of said trough.

A secondary shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast over
the Plains in the wake of the first system. Increasing northwest
flow and lift from the system suggest good chances for nighttime/early
morning MCS activity Thursday and Friday nights.

Once the second wave passes by this weekend, rising heights over
the Plains will bring back more typical August weather that should
continue into early next week. Rain chances will be low at best,
as high temps climb.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  76  90  73 /  20  20  40  50
FSM   89  75  92  76 /  20  10  30  50
MLC   91  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  40
BVO   90  73  89  70 /  20  30  40  60
FYV   86  71  87  72 /  20  10  40  50
BYV   87  72  88  73 /  20  10  40  50
MKO   89  75  90  74 /  20  20  50  60
MIO   89  73  88  71 /  20  20  50  60
F10   91  76  89  74 /  20  20  40  60
HHW   91  75  92  76 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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