032
FXUS64 KLZK 230536
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An upper ridge continues over the southeast U.S. with several low
pressure systems along the northern U.S. border. One upper low will
move northeast through the Great Lakes as another one moves into the
Rockies Thursday. This low then moves into the upper Midwest Friday
as the ridge in the south flattens out.

Showers and thunderstorms moved into Arkansas from Oklahoma but have
weakened as they moved east. The cold front has moved south into
central Arkansas. The atmosphere remains primed for thunderstorms
along and south of this boundary. The highest risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be in the southwest
and central sections which is under an Enhanced Risk for severe
thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats with the strongest storms.

Several short waves will move through the state through Friday
bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Several
inches of rain are expected through the end of the week. Rain
chances continue Thursday across the state and will be mostly in the
northeast half of the state Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s and in the mid to upper 60s Thursday
night. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and in
the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Unsettled weather is forecast to continue in the long term and the
holiday weekend. Aloft, a weak upper level trough will be in place
across the western CONUS leaving the region in southwest flow. Along
this flow, numerous upper level disturbances will move through the
region and bring several rounds of precipitation. At the surface a
nearly stationary frontal boundary will be draped across the state
which will become the focus for severe storms. A moist and unstable
air mass will be in place to the south of that boundary making
severe weather possible on Saturday and again on Sunday across the
region. At this point, it is hard to pin down the specifics but will
bear watching in future forecast updates.

Models are generally in good agreement that a general pattern change
will finally happen late Monday into Tuesday with the aforementioned
upper level trough shifting to the east and an upper level ridge
building in over the western CONUS. This will help to finally drive
the front well through the state and bring a return of northwesterly
flow to the region.  This will result in drier more stable air to
move into Arkansas. How long this period of dry air will persist
remains a point of contention between the models with the ECMWF
producing a drier solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Mostly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through the first part of
the period as TSRA/SHRA remain possible through sunset Thursday.
Only a brief break in the showers are expected with additional
showers and storms possible into Friday. Winds will be out of the
south and could be gusty with storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  66  83  68 /  70  50  70  50
Camden AR         89  66  85  68 /  80  60  60  50
Harrison AR       74  62  80  65 / 100  70  30  40
Hot Springs AR    82  66  84  67 /  90  50  80  60
Little Rock   AR  83  69  86  71 /  80  50  90  60
Monticello AR     89  69  88  71 /  60  70  70  50
Mount Ida AR      81  65  83  65 /  90  60  80  60
Mountain Home AR  75  63  80  65 / 100  70  40  40
Newport AR        81  67  83  68 /  60  60  70  50
Pine Bluff AR     85  68  86  69 /  70  60  80  60
Russellville AR   81  66  83  67 / 100  60  70  50
Searcy AR         81  66  85  68 /  60  60  80  60
Stuttgart AR      85  69  84  71 /  80  60  90  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...73