457
FXUS64 KLZK 070548
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1248 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Latest data from local radars indicate widely scattered (~20
percent coverage) across the eastern half of the forecast area,
moving eastward. This activity has formed in an area of very
weakly sheared, weakly forced, moderately unstable atmosphere.
This activity is expected to decrease with the loss of solar
heating.

Slightly more widespread activity is expected for Monday and
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest concentration of
precipitation expected across northern sections of the forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A weak northwest flow pattern will be in place across the mid
south during at the start of this forecast period, then will
flatten as upper level heights increase. During the second half of
the forecast period, a overall decrease in diurnally enhanced
convection is expected, along with a slight warming trend. Would
expect heat headlines during the second half of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A complex of showers and thunderstorms currently entering
northwest Arkansas will slowly move east across portions of
northwest Arkansas over the next couple of hours, but likely
dissipate as latest satellite analysis shows warming cloud tops
within the complex. Light and variable to calm conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites through the early morning hours. After
sunrise, light S/SW winds will prevail at all TAF sites through
sunset, then become light and variable. Hi-res CAMs shows
scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms that will mainly
impact northern terminals on Monday afternoon as a disturbance
treks across the state. The impacts to aviation will be minimal
with brief periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings, strong gusty winds for
short durations. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  72  91  72 /  60  30  60  30
Camden AR         96  72  93  72 /  40  20  60  20
Harrison AR       88  70  87  69 /  50  20  70  30
Hot Springs AR    96  72  93  72 /  50  20  50  30
Little Rock   AR  95  75  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
Monticello AR     95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  20
Mount Ida AR      94  72  90  72 /  50  20  70  30
Mountain Home AR  88  70  88  70 /  60  20  70  30
Newport AR        93  74  92  73 /  50  20  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     95  73  92  73 /  40  20  50  20
Russellville AR   93  72  92  72 /  50  20  60  30
Searcy AR         94  72  92  72 /  50  20  50  30
Stuttgart AR      94  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...Kelly