Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.



TS coverage is more sparse this evening and activity will dwindle
after 25/02Z with patchy MVFR BR expected overnight. Where RA
occurred today, some IFR BR possible, but confidence is low. Calm
winds tonight will become L/V Friday with scattered TS again.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 245 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Data from local radars indicate convection has developed across
northwest and western sections of the forecast area. Development
appears to be generally weaker than what occurred at this time
yesterday. Expect this development to reflect a diurnal trend during
the early evening hours.

Forecasts through the rest of this period will be similar to
conditions during recent days, with slow moving, single convective
cells developing, primarily in the afternoon and early evening.

Slightly above normal temperatures are expected during this period.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

In the extended period, Arkansas will be between a tropical system
to the east and a ridge of high pressure nudging into the region
from the southwest.

As far as the tropical system, data coming into more agreement
on reaching the central Gulf Coast by Monday or so. From there, the
system wobbles somewhat toward us, but stays east of the
Mississippi River. That will keep us on the subsidence/dry/hot
side of the storm.

Even so, have isolated to scattered thunderstorms ongoing in the
eastern half of the state through much of the period. Precipitation
should mostly occur during the heat of the afternoon/evening.
Looks mostly dry farther west.

Temperatures will be above average across the region.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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