Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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431 FXUS64 KFWD 170019 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 719 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ At the time of writing this discussion, storms have pushed south along a surface boundary/pseudo-warm front that is currently positioned over Southern Texas. Behind it, isolated to scattered showers with occasional lightning strikes here and there will continue to migrate south and east as the bulk of this convective activity retreats well to our southeast along this boundary. These scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the evening hours before the majority of our coverage area experiences a brief lull in precipitation. There is a low chance for another cluster of storms to push through portions of North and Central Texas into the overnight hours, as highlighted by some of the latest hi-res guidance. The main threat with this activity will be marginally severe hail, and perhaps gusty to marginally severe winds. It is also very likely that this activity will be mostly outflow dominant and elevated in nature, which would continue to lessen any severe potential considerably. With all of this being said, continue to stay weather aware this evening as we may not be totally out of the woods just yet, especially regarding our flooding potential. Speaking of flooding, a Flood Watch will remain in effect this evening through 7 AM Friday morning. Additional rainfall has already reaggravated flooding issues today across portions of North and Central Texas where this Watch is in effect. With highly saturated soils, near instant run-off conditions will exist through the overnight hours. This will only serve to exacerbate flooding concerns, especially if additional activity pushes through these same areas tonight. In addition, river responses to more rainfall will prolong any river flooding issues that are currently ongoing, which will also be worth monitoring through tonight as well. The upper level low that is responsible for the large-scale forcing for ascent leading to this period of active weather will be slow to move across our coverage area, with activity potentially lingering through Friday afternoon. This has a low chance of materializing one or more additional clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Because of this, low PoPs have been maintained through Friday afternoon to account for this potential. For more information regarding this activity through Friday evening, please see the long term discussion below. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/ Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning. Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead. Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for areas along and south of I-20. The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on Tuesday. The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday. Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third shortwave moves east across the forecast area. Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient levels of instability (which will be in good supply each afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing, location, and the specific severe weather threats as better resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ Concerns...Low Storm Chances, MVFR/IFR Ceilings Into Tomorrow. Quite a messy stretch of weather for the aviation folks out there will continue through much of the morning and even into the early afternoon hours on Friday. The primary concerns to those flying are the low storm chances this evening and from 03-07z tonight, along with rapidly falling ceilings down to MVFR/IFR. Confidence in specific impacts right over the D10 terminals remains low, with higher confidence across the Waco site. The highest potential for impacts will be for arrivals routing through the Glen Rose and Cedar Creek corner posts through the evening into the overnight hours. Ceilings by Friday morning will likely be IFR across much of the region, with potential for minor visibility restrictions as patchy fog has a low chance of setting up across the TAF sites into the morning. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 82 66 89 69 / 40 20 10 0 0 Waco 65 82 65 87 69 / 40 5 10 5 0 Paris 63 80 63 85 65 / 50 40 20 5 0 Denton 62 80 62 88 66 / 40 30 10 0 0 McKinney 63 80 63 87 66 / 40 30 20 5 0 Dallas 65 83 66 89 69 / 40 20 10 5 0 Terrell 63 80 64 87 66 / 40 20 20 5 0 Corsicana 66 82 66 88 69 / 50 10 10 5 0 Temple 64 83 64 88 67 / 40 5 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 63 80 62 89 67 / 50 20 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ101>104-116>122- 130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$