Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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950 FXUS66 KMTR 221735 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1035 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1237 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Mostly clear skies over our region with the exception of some areas over Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley. Satellite shows most of the clouds are pretty socked in, so expect clearer skies after 10-11 AM in those areas. Temperatures 24 hours ago were a few degrees below current temperatures. Therefore, expect another day of warmer temperatures with inland areas reaching up to high 70s with isolated spots in the low 80s. Forecast remains on track, no changes were made. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 212 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Stratus is slowly creeping its way up along the coast from Monterey Bay through Half Moon Bay. An otter eddy has developed over the Monterey Bay with stratus cycling cyclonically over the bay. Stratus coverage is expected to fill in and become more widespread over the Monterey Bay by the early morning hours. Morning lows will be slightly cooler than yesterday with more widespread low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High temperatures today will be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than observed yesterday with inland highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Increasingly onshore flow along the coast will help to bring in moister, cooler air and begin a weak cooling trend. Minor heat risk continues today and tomorrow for most of the interior Bay Area and interior portions of the Central Coast. For those who are extremely sensitive to heat, remember to take breaks while outdoors and to drink plenty of water. Broad upper level troughing continues through Thursday with weak upper level offshore flow contributing to drier conditions inland. Minimum relative humidity values on Wednesday will be slightly higher than yesterday as stronger onshore flow along the coast will bring in increased moisture. Inland daytime RH values will rise by at least 10% with values ranging from 30 to 45 percent expected. The driest conditions (daytime RH values around 30%) are collocated with decent upper level offshore flow over the North and East Bay Mountains. Along the coast, stronger onshore flow will keep daytime RH values ranging from the mid 60s to low 80s with moister conditions extending farther northward today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 212 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 A weak cooling trend continues through Thursday before a more significant temperature drop begins Friday as stronger upper level troughing dips southward and a weak surface low pressure system moves inland. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be 5 to 15 degrees below average. Inland areas will see highs extending from the low 60s to low 70s while coastal areas see highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate that light, non- impactful precipitation is possible with this system but values continue to be less than a tenth of an inch. Precipitation chances remain low overall but the most likely scenario suggests light drizzle along the coast and maybe a trace of rain inland. Stratus coverage is expected to become more widespread beginning over the weekend as this system moves through and increased onshore flow develops. This will follow a typical "May Gray" pattern where gloomier, overcast conditions are expected throughout the morning before overcast conditions clear out mid to late morning. While below average temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the month, a weak warming trend will begin Sunday as upper level ridging builds over the West Coast. Temperatures will be slightly below average to seasonal with inland regions warming back into the 70s and low 80s and coastal regions continuing to linger in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 With the exception of the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS which are still under the influence of the Otter Eddy, currently VFR at all terminals with stratus hugging a majority of the West Coast. Moderate-high confidence of VFR through the TAF period at all terminals with the exception of the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS. While below the low level wind shear threshold, it will likely be bumpy getting out of the North Bay terminals of APC and STS tonight. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will transition to become westerly with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS as both terminals are still under the influence of the Otter Eddy. Stratus has already begun eroding inland with both terminals expected to return to VFR by 20Z. Moderate-high confidence that IFR stratus will return to both terminals tonight. Winds will remain breezy out of the west through the TAF period with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots to be expected. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to allow for strong northwesterly winds to prevail through Thursday, with gale force gusts across the outer coastal waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves during the week. Winds diminish heading into the weekend as surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean weakens and retrogrades to the west. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea