


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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471 FXUS66 KMTR 100851 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 151 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Temperatures peaking today and Friday with patchy Moderate HeatRisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. - Gradual cooling trend begins middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 148 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 (Today and tonight) Stratus persists along the coast and into some of the neighboring valleys, with the compressed marine layer resulting in less stratus coverage inland than the last night. Low temperatures this morning hover in the middle to upper 50s for the lower elevations, up to the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations, and some drizzle is possible at the immediate coast. Temperatures will be peaking today as the ridge axis moves over California, with highs ranging from the 90s to near 102 inland, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the Bays, and the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast. Moderate HeatRisk should develop in the interior North and East Bays, throughout the South Bay, the Santa Lucia range, and the southern reaches of Monterey and San Benito Counties. This corresponds to a moderate risk of heat related illnesses for populations sensitive to heat, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, and people working or living outdoors without access to adequate hydration or cooling. Here are some heat safety tips: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. Localized elevated fire weather conditions continue across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 15-30% and localized gusts to 30 mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However, the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 148 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 (Friday through Wednesday) Moderate HeatRisk continues on Friday across the interior North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay, in addition to the Santa Lucia mountains and the southern tip of San Benito County, as high temperatures remain around the same as today`s. Temperatures will be slightly cooling this weekend as a weak upper level disturbance passes through, with high temperatures ranging from the 80s to the lower 90s inland and the 70s to the lower 80s near the bays. The pattern remains rather stable through the early part of next week, with warm inland temperatures, cool coastal temperatures, light onshore winds, and localized elevated fire weather threat in the interior developing each afternoon. Towards the middle and later parts of the week, ensemble model cluster analysis points to an eroding ridge with a upper level trough developing over the eastern Pacific into the West Coast, leading to a gradual cooling trend through the end of the 7-day forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 949 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 LIFR CIGS are building along the coast and have filled over HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals. Expect winds to continue to reduce into the night and become weak in the late night and early morning as moments of CIGs affect OAK and IFR CIGs fill at APC. Inland clearing begins in the mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR in the late morning and early afternoon. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the mid afternoon. Winds look to stay light to moderate through the morning and increase into late Thursday morning and afternoon. Expect winds to reduce into Tuesday evening as IFR/MVFR CIGs begin to move inland from the coast, filling over HAF and Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds reducing to moderate speeds and become light into early Thursday morning. Breezy west winds return in the late morning, and look to last through the mid evening before becoming light to moderate again. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs with light winds last through the night with pockets of mist and drizzle affecting visibilities into the morning. Winds become moderate into mid to late Thursday morning as CIGs erode over the terminals, but expect cloud cover to linger over the Monterey Bay itself until the mid afternoon. Winds weaken again into Thursday evening with IFR CIGs building over MRY with SNS seeing CIGs later that night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 548 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Winds are increasing across the waters becoming fresh to strong. These winds will maintain strength through Thursday and into Friday for most areas, but will increase to gale-strength for the northern outer waters into early Friday. Expect building rough seas in the exposed waters alongside these building winds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea