430
FXUS66 KMTR 102232
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
232 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

A strong offshore wind event returns late tonight and continues
through Sunday morning for the higher elevations of the Bay Area
and into the Santa Cruz mountains. There may be another push of
gusty winds Monday through Tuesday. Dry weather persists through the
week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Upper level high pressure is being squashed by a shortwave trough
moving into the PacNW today, while a deep upper level trough digs
into northwestern Mexico. This leaves us with with quasi weak
troughing and more zonal upper level flow through the weekend. Gusty
north to northeast winds will be observed in response, with the
strongest winds being over the hills and higher elevations of Santa
Cruz county and the North, East, and South Bay counties as well.
Winds begin to increase late tonight and continue through Sunday
morning before weakening some. Outside of these winds, the other
concern to keep an eye are overnight low temperatures. Tonight,
the coldest areas should be across the interior areas of San
Benito and Monterey counties, including the south Salinas Valley.
Lows will range from roughly 32 to 36 degrees, though some areas
in Monterey and San Benito counties will be warmer and in the low
to mid 40s and upper 30s respectively. A Frost Advisory was
hoisted from late tonight through tomorrow morning as enough of
these highlighted areas fell into the 32 to 36 degree range. There
looks to be additional cold nights in our future, so we`ll need
to keep an eye on low temperature forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Ensembles and cluster analysis shows troughing setting up over the
west, and an area of low pressure cutting off somewhere over
southern or central California. Unfortunately for us, there is no
rain in our future, just dry weather. Another round of breezy
winds is possible Monday into Tuesday, perhaps being more confined
to the North and East Bay areas. Much like the previous shift,
the NBM isn`t hitting Wind Advisory criteria, nor do any of the
ensembles really highlight it either. Will need to watch and see
how the hi- res models pan out and we get better determination as
to where the low situates. Outside of that, guidance does seem to
favor chilly overnight lows this week. NBM seems to be a good
solution for now to capture these temperatures, which fall into
the 30s for much of the area perhaps low 40s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR through the first half of the TAF period with increasing
confidence for lowering ceilings into Saturday morning as a frontal
boundary approaches and passes through the region. LIFR/IFR ceilings
and reductions in visibility will impact many coastal areas with
scattered clouds inland, but will be quick to clear early Saturday
as more moderate to breezy north winds arrive by Saturday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Winds become westerly into the afternoon and
northwesterly Friday night. As the frontal boundary approaches late
in the night, expecting scattered low level clouds to develop (brief
MVFR/IFR). These clouds will be quick to clear by midmorning
Saturday as winds increase out of a northerly direction.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Expect light to moderate southeasterly
drainage winds to affect the terminals through late morning, with
lighter and more variable winds expected in the afternoon. LIFR/IFR
ceilings to affect the terminals into the late night and clearing by
about 17Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 906 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Stronger and gustier northerly winds build into the day on Friday
with elevated wave heights between 10 to 15 feet developing Friday
night. The strongest winds will be located over the  northern
outer waters where gale force gusts are likely over the  weekend.
Seas reamin elevated into the work week, but winds look  to
reduce.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon PST Saturday for CAZ006-
     506-508.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Sunday for
     CAZ504-512-514-515.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ516>518.

PZ...Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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