554
FXUS66 KMTR 120529
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
929 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Dry conditions a forecast for the upcoming week, along with chilly
morning temperatures. Periods of gusty offshore winds will be
possible through the early portion of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

No changes to the forecast as it remains on track. The max
temperatures today remained mostly in the 60s, but observations
reported that Oakland Museum did break a daily record high today
with a max of 69 (previous record was 68 in 1983). Satellite
continues to show clear skies throughout our region, which will
promote temperatures to reach mostly mid 30s to mid 40s overnight.
A Frost Advisory has been issued starting 1 AM through 9 AM
Sunday, for most of San Benito County and southern Salinas
Valley. We will keep a close eye on the minimum temperatures tonight
for any necessary updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Zonal flow becomes influences by broad upper level troughing aloft
as it slowly encompasses much of the west. At the surface, high
pressure builds. Main tweaks to the forecast for this period were
the wind and then tonight`s low temperatures. We`re still on track
to see breezy offshore winds for our North Bay Interior Mountains,
East Bay Hills, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Eastern Santa Clara Hills.
Gusts up 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with stronger gusts possible
for higher elevations. Winds begin to ease Sunday morning and fall
below Wind Advisory criteria by the early afternoon perhaps sooner.
Moving to the forecast, took some time to review last night`s low
temperature forecast and the observations across the area. Opted to
blend in some of the NBM 75th percentile and last night`s
observations for tonight`s temperature. That put`s the southern
Salinas Valley and interior San Benito County within Frost Advisory
criteria again tonight. Interior Monterey will get chilly as well
but may not see as widespread of lows. Will need to keep an eye on
the temperature forecast tonight to see if this remains on track or
if temps will need to be lowered some towards the deterministic
NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

An upper level digs to the south and then west, placing it over west
of southern California  early in the week. THen, upper level ridging
noses towards the PacNW midweek pushing that low pressure to the
south some more. Dry weather and chilly mornings are forecast for
the extended portion of the forecast. This matches well with the
Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day forecast which depicts likely
below normal temperatures and below normal chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 929 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

All sites VFR through TAF period, low confidence that fog will
develop at STS overnight. Winds will be light but conditions should
be dry enough to prevent fog from developing at STS overnight. A mix
of northerly to northwesterly winds continues through the TAF period
with lighter, at times variable, winds expected overnight. Gusts
have generally dropped off at all airports (excluding KHAF) but
isolated stronger gusts to around 15 knots remain possible for the
next few hours.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Moderate northerly winds continue through
tomorrow afternoon when winds shift more northwesterly and weaken
slightly.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds will shift more southeasterly at
both MRY and SNS overnight before more northwesterly flow returns
during the day. Winds become more moderate during the day but will
start to weaken and become more variable by late tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 929 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Gale force winds continue over portions of the northern outer
coastal waters, particularly the far northwest corner, with
strong,  gusty winds expected elsewhere. Hazardous conditions for
small  crafts will persist through Monday with elevated wave
heights  between 10 to 15 feet expected. Winds will gradually ease
late  Sunday into Monday as the high pressure gradient weakens
over the  Pacific Ocean. Significant wave heights will remain
elevated through  the early work week but will abate below small
craft criteria by mid  week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     506-508.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ504-512-514-515.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ516-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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