955
FXUS66 KMTR 130422
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
922 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

 - Hot and dry today for interior locations with a moderate risk
   of heat-related illnesses

 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides
   anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area

 - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along
   beaches this weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Infrared satellite imagery shows the June Gloom stratus re-
establishing itself along the Pacific Coast. Already seeing a
finger of stratus push its way through the Golden Gate and into
Berkeley. Highs today were predominately cooler in many
communities throughout the San Francisco Bay Area and Central
California Coast. Most notably, Downtown San Francisco dropped
from a high of 89 deg F on Thursday to a high of 66 deg F today.

One update to pass along from the afternoon. The Heat Advisory for
the South Bay and interior East Bay has been extended through
tomorrow where widespread Moderate Heat Risk will persist. More
details will come with the full AFD update in several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (This afternoon through
Saturday)

The upper-level pattern continues to be influenced by a ridge over
the eastern Pacific. This maintains the above normal high
temperatures observed over the last several days and today,
leading to a moderate risk for heat related illnesses for the
eastern areas. The Heat Advisory for the interior East Bay and
South Bay will end this evening.

GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows the stratus continues to
move back over the marine environment clearing most of the cities
along the Pacific Coast. Otherwise sunny skies across the area.
Stratus will continue to push westward for the next several hours
eventually moving back inland this evening into the overnight
period following typical June stratus patterns.

High tide flooding will continue to occur nightly along the Bayshore
through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new
moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, about 7 inches of additional
tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion
of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level
Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s
will add up to bring tides up to 2.0 feet above normal through
early next week. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in
January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up
being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current
record of 1.7 ft from July 2022.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Saturday night through
next Thursday)

A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the
eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote a
cooling trend for interior locations into the second half of the
weekend lessening the risk for heat related illnesses to minor.
Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus. While
temperatures will return closer to middle- June climatology, the
main hazards into early next week will be the southerly swell
along the coast, plus coastal flooding associated with the high
tides.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Satellite imagery highlights coastal stratus and fog pushing onshore
this evening as the marine layer advances inland. Current coastal
observations indicate a rapid drop in ceiling heights to IFR/LIFR
with the arrival of the status. Inland locations will experience
much better conditions, insulated from the marine influence, with
generally clear skies and VFR conditions prevailing. Across SF
Bay, moderate confidence that low stratus will result in IFR
ceilings by early Saturday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence in VFR conditions persisting
through the evening. Moderate confidence in IFR ceilings by early
Saturday morning as low stratus pushes through the Golden Gate
and enters SF Bay. The marine layer will remain shallow, keeping
ceilings low but also allowing stratus to burn off by mid Saturday
morning (15-17Z). Winds from the NW 10-20 kt will subside below
10 kt around or shortly after sunset, with NW winds returning
Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Vicinity of SJC and OAK...High confidence in VFR conditions
through the evening. Stratus will increase through the Golden Gate
overnight, with moderate confidence in IFR ceilings arriving at
KOAK 08-11Z. VFR conditions should return 15-17Z as a shallow
marine layer burns off. Confidence is low that stratus will push
all the way to KSJC, therefore VFR conditions are forecast through
Saturday morning. Winds out of the NW 10-15 kt will subside
overnight, then pick up again Saturday afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery highlights the
redevelopment and expansion of stratus inland, now poised just west
of the KSNS airfield. Upstream observations highlight IFR/LIFR
cig heights as stratus fills in, with continued maintenance of
low-level stratus overnight. Variable and light winds overnight
across KMRY with some onshore flow holding on a little longer
through the valley across SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 435 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A gentle southerly breeze and moderate to rough seas with a low
south southwest swell persist across most of the coastal waters.
However, small craft advisory conditions linger in the northern
outer waters where winds remain northerly through Saturday
morning. The winds will remain fairly consistent through the
weekend as  the seas subside.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2026

Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend,
especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach
conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply
sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo,
Santa Cruz counties. Hazardous beach conditions will expand to
include Pacific coast beaches along the central coast and the Bay
Area coast starting Saturday evening through Tuesday morning. Be
sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves
will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially
catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being
swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the
strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if
possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers,
beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never
turn your back to the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506-
     508.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through late
     Tuesday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday
     for CAZ505-509-529-530.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ510-513>515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rowe
SHORT TERM...Malarkey
LONG TERM....Malarkey
AVIATION...Manion
MARINE...Tangen

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