694
FXUS66 KMTR 140452
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
952 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

 - Cooling trend continues today, warming and drying trend resumes
   Thursday

 - Breezy and gusty winds this afternoon and evening, then
   returning Friday into the weekend

 - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(This evening through Thursday)

Skies are clearing across the region with a decaying cold front, the
fringes of an upper level trough coming across the Pacific
Northwest, helping to mix out the lower levels across the Bay Area
and Central Coast. Some patches of stratus linger across the San
Mateo Peninsula and the Monterey Bay region, but these patches
should mix out through the afternoon hours. High temperatures remain
seasonally average to cool with temperatures in the 70s to the lower
80s in the inland valleys, the middle 60s to lower 70s close to the
bays, and the upper 50s to the lower 60s near the Pacific coast. A
strengthening pressure gradient will develop as a Pacific high
opposes a low developing in the Great Basin, with northwesterly
gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour developing this afternoon and
evening along the coast, through favorably oriented gaps and
valleys, and across the ridgelines. Winds should diminish late this
evening in to the post-midnight hours on Thursday.

For Thursday, mild ridging should settle into the region and allow
for a gradual warming trend, with highs in the inland valleys
reaching the upper 70s to the upper 80s. Some low clouds could
develop on the western side of the San Mateo Peninsula into the
Monterey Bay region, with the stratus dissipating through the
morning as an onshore breeze forms in the afternoon, although wind
speeds should not be as strong as today`s winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Temperatures on Friday should be similar to those seen on Thursday,
but the winds could start picking up again as an upper level trough
develops from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest,
increasing the pressure gradient and causing gusts to rise to the 25
to 35 mph range along the coast, through gaps and passes, and at the
ridgelines. Through the weekend, a part of that trough breaks off
from the westerly flow and starts to stall over the Northern
Rockies, further reinforcing the strong winds across the region and
especially at the favored regions. On Saturday, NBM probabilities
show good chances (above 80% probabilities) for wind gusts above 40
mph along the coastal regions; along the ridgelines of the Mayacama,
Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia Mountains; and through the Salinas Valley
between Salinas and King City. Wind Advisories may end up being
necessary Friday through the weekend, as confidence in the extent
and strength of the winds increases through the next couple of days.
Beach Hazards Statements or High Surf Advisories may also be
required due to strong and dangerous wind-driven waves.

As for temperatures, the incoming trough will interrupt the warming
trend with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday dropping back into
the 70s to lower 80s in the inland valleys. For the early part of
next week, the warming trend will resume as upper level ridging
returns to the West Coast. There continues to be some variability in
the ensemble space depending on how that upper level ridging
interacts with the lingering trough over the Rockies. The NBM seems
to be running a little warm in that ensemble space, so in
coordination with our neighbors and national centers, we`ve dropped
the high temperature forecasts by around 3 degrees across our
forecast area for the early part of next week. For next Tuesday and
Wednesday, the current forecast calls for highs in the middle 80s to
lower 90s in the inland valleys, the upper 70s to the middle 80s
close to the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s near the Pacific
coast. Judging from a close analysis of the ensemble clusters, the
wiggle room for those inland highs looks to be around 3 to 5 degrees
in either direction. The coastal and Bayshore highs are harder to
say, particularly if the marine layer does return to those regions,
as the resolution of the global ensemble models does not allow for a
good depiction of those marine layer impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR is expected to prevail for all but the Monterey Bay terminals
through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for MVFR cigs at
the Bay Area terminals but confidence is too low for mentioning in
the TAF. Coastal terminals should expect breezy to gusty onshore
flow to pick up once again by late Thursday morning into the
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a slight chance of MVFR cigs developing in the pre-
dawn hours but confidence is too low for mentioning in the TAF
attm. Gusty onshore flow will develop once again Thursday morning
through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same timing as SFO for gusty onshore flow to
develop in the morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus is gradually developing in
vicinity of both KMRY and KSNS at time of issuance. Good
confidence in KMRY seeing MVFR cigs after midnight, with lesser
confidence of IFR developing, so left it out of the forecast for
the moment. KSNS is expected to develop MVFR cigs around sunrise
but may develop earlier based on current satellite trends.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 933 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026

Expect hazardous marine conditions to begin to develop rapidly
later this afternoon, first across our northern outer waters and
quickly spread south. Near gale-force winds tonight and Thursday
morning will become gale-force by the afternoon, with widespread
severe gale-force winds by Friday across our outer waters. Storm
force winds will be possible over the inner water by Friday and
continue into the weekend. The strong winds will drive seas
between 12 to 17 feet. Expect hazardous conditions for mariners
and dangerous conditions for small crafts the weekend into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon
     Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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