Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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387 FXUS66 KMTR 061118 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 418 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Despite the chilly start to the day, a warming trend will lead to above normal temperatures by Thursday. Once the warm weather arrives, it should be pretty persistent through mid month. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 The satellite image is pretty clear tonight, with just a few pockets of orographic clouds in the mountains. These clear skies will allow enhanced radiational cooling before the sun comes up. Expect inland temperatures to drop into the low 40s with a few pockets of upper 30s. Mostly clear skies will prevail through the morning, allowing temperatures to recover quickly after sunrise. A weak disturbance will bring some cloud cover and moderate NW winds back this afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 A upper level ridge will set up camp this week, keeping warm and dry weather in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Thursday and Friday look like the warmest days of the week, with coastal highs in the upper 60s and inland highs in the mid-80s. There is a minor HeatRisk for inland areas beginning Wednesday and persisting through the forecast period. This will cause concern for individuals who are extremely sensitive to heat, especially when outdoors without effective means of cooling or adequate hydration. With the sharp change from the cool temperatures this weekend, this week may catch some folks offguard. An inland ridge will cause offshore flow to develop mid week, decreasing the relative humidity into the 20-40% range. The strongest winds will be in the Vaca Range of Napa County, with gusts up to gale force Wed night-Thu morning. With fuel moisture still above average, this shouldn`t be a major fire weather concern, but will act to dry things out as the fire season approaches. The Climate Prediction Center forecast shows above normal temperatures are likely for the next 2 weeks which will likely trigger the typical summer pattern of coastal stratus after the offshore wind event ends this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 414 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals. VFR through the TAF period at all terminals except MRY as the terminal is slated to see the return of MVFR stratus overnight. Winds will become breezy out of the west this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR and calm. VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will be on the increase through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected. Low clouds at FL030-FL050 will likely impact the terminal between 05Z and 11Z. Winds become more northerly towards the end of the TAF period as the pressure gradient is forced to tighten as surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves into the Pacific Northwest. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with light southeasterly flow at MRY and VFR and calm at SNS. Winds will become breezy out of the west this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots to be expected. MVFR conditions return to MRY in the form of stratus overnight while SNS looks to stay just above MVFR criteria. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 414 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Fair weather and moderate northwesterly winds will prevail today. Northerly winds will dramatically increase overnight as the pressure gradient is forced to tighten as surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds and moves into the Pacific Northwest. Gale force gusts will be likely Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over the outer waters and along the Big Sur Coast. During this same time frame, significant wave heights will begin to build to heights of up to 15 feet. Needless to say, conditions will be extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels Tuesday and Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised during this time. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea