609
FXUS66 KMTR 010648
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1148 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

 - Long period southwest swell will result in an increased risk of
   sneaker waves and rip currents through Tuesday morning

 - Today will be the warmest day of the week for most locations

 - Slightly cooler temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026
(Today and tonight)

Today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal with slight H50 height increase though little
change in thickness values. The marine layer remains primarily
compressed to coastal areas with stratus lifting by late morning.
Expect mostly sunny skies by the afternoon with breezy diurnal
onshore flow at times, especially in the East Bay Hills and Salinas
Valley. A strengthening marine layer tonight into Tuesday morning
will make farther progress inland with overnight lows in the 50s
area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1144 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The upper level ridging begins to shift east and flatten on Tuesday
with split flow aloft across our region through the end of the work
week, which will keep temperatures at or slightly above normal
through the remainder of the work week. There`s also a chance of
coastal drizzle with the expanding marine layer through the middle
of the week. There is still some uncertainty with the exact position
and timing of a developing trough moving into the Pacific Northwest
by the end of the week into the weekend, but confidence is high that
we`ll see a slight cool down for next weekend with otherwise no
impactful or hazardous weather concerns through the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

Moderate confidence that VFR conditions will continue overnight with
the exception of IFR conditions at HAF, MRY, and SNS. LAMP and MOS
guidance both suggest CIGs in the IFR-MVFR vicinity along the coast
with some potential for fog to develop. Confidence is low that fog
will develop but if the marine layer is able to lower overnight then
coastal fog would be more likely. Winds continue to ease overnight
before breezier onshore winds return during the day tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. There is a slight chance that MVFR-IFR CIGs
reach SFO overnight between 12-18Z. Confidence is low, however, with
high resolution guidance showing RH values less than 90% at SFO
during this time period. HREF guidance has additionally backed off
of stratus extending into the SF Bay and vicinity of SFO with the
00Z run. The combination of these two factors was enough to
maintain a FEW in the TAF but not expecting CIGs to develop. Winds
continue to ease overnight before gusty onshore winds return during
the afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions expected overnight. The
marine layer is currently between 900-1000 ft with stratus expected
to be similar to that tonight. There is some potential for fog to
develop early tomorrow morning with LAMP guidance leaning harder on
this than MOS guidance. For now, kept lower visibilities in the TAF
but did not put fog in yet. Expecting stratus coverage to reduce by
late morning with stratus returning late tomorrow evening/tomorrow
night. CIGs are more likely to be MVFR tomorrow night as a deeper
marine layer returns. Breezy onshore winds are expected again during
the day before winds weaken during the night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 938 PM PDT Sun May 31 2026

Fresh to strong northerly winds gradually decrease overnight with
moderate to fresh winds expected by Monday afternoon. Seas subside
below 10 feet as winds decrease by Monday afternoon. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds continue through Tuesday before building
seas,  strong northerly winds, and gale force gusts return
starting mid  week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sun May 31 2026

A Beach Hazards Statement will come into effect at 5 AM today
through Tuesday morning due to an increased risk of sneaker waves
and rip currents. Long period southwest swell is approaching the
Pacific coast, with periods of 18 to 20 seconds and a height of
around 2 feet in the open waters. These long period swells result
in increased risk of sneaker waves, potentially deadly waves which
surge much further up the beach than expected and sweep unaware
beachgoers into the ocean, and strong rip currents that can sweep
the strongest swimmers away from shore. Never turn your back to
the ocean! Inexperienced swimmers should stay from the water.
Observe the waves for 20 minutes before moving closer. Swim near a
lifeguard if possible, and if caught in a rip current, swim
parallel to the coast away from the current, and then at an angle
to shore.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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