519
FXUS66 KMTR 112108
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
108 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Dry conditions a forecast for the upcoming week, along with chilly
morning temperatures. Periods of gusty offshore winds will be
possible through the early portion of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Zonal flow becomes influences by broad upper level troughing aloft
as it slowly encompasses much of the west. At the surface, high
pressure builds. Main tweaks to the forecast for this period were
the wind and then tonight`s low temperatures. We`re still on track
to see breezy offshore winds for our North Bay Interior Mountains,
East Bay Hills, Santa Cruz Mountains, and Eastern Santa Clara Hills.
Gusts up 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with stronger gusts possible
for higher elevations. Winds begin to ease Sunday morning and fall
below Wind Advisory criteria by the early afternoon perhaps sooner.
Moving to the forecast, took some time to review last night`s low
temperature forecast and the observations across the area. Opted to
blend in some of the NBM 75th percentile and last night`s
observations for tonight`s temperature. That put`s the southern
Salinas Valley and interior San Benito County within Frost Advisory
criteria again tonight. Interior Monterey will get chilly as well
but may not see as widespread of lows. Will need to keep an eye on
the temperature forecast tonight to see if this remains on track or
if temps will need to be lowered some towards the deterministic
NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

An upper level digs to the south and then west, placing it over west
of southern California  early in the week. THen, upper level ridging
noses towards the PacNW midweek pushing that low pressure to the
south some more. Dry weather and chilly mornings are forecast for
the extended portion of the forecast. This matches well with the
Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day forecast which depicts likely
below normal temperatures and below normal chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Wind speeds are expected to increase out
of a northerly direction this morning and into the afternoon with
gusty conditions expected. Winds reduce into the night, becoming
light into early Sunday with stronger winds by Sunday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Northerly winds
increase by mid-morning with gusts around 25 kt expected. Gusts
reduce into the early night, but winds stay moderate through early
Sunday and increase again by Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay
light through much of the morning, but become breezy in the
afternoon as they turn northerly. Winds reduce in the evening and
become light and southerly by Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 932 AM PST Sat Jan 11 2025

Expect strong and gusty northerly winds to continue through much
of the day on Saturday. Wave heights build to 10 to 15 feet and
remain elevated through the weekend, gradually subsiding through
early next week. The strongest winds will be located over the
northern outer waters where gale force gusts are likely through
the weekend. Winds will gradually ease into early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Sunday for CAZ006-
     506-508.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ504-512-514-515.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ516-518.

PZ...Gale Warning until 8 PM PST this evening for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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