Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 280500
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
900 PM PST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonably warm days followed by clear and
cool nights Friday through Monday. High pressure next week keeps
the pattern dry with periods of offshore winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 08:54 PM PST Thursday...

Quiet conditions prevailed across the area this evening with
mostly clear skies. Other than a few high clouds moving in from
the west and a slight increase in southerly flow aloft not really
looking for any meaningful changes to the weather pattern
overnight. The going forecast is in good shape and no changes are
planned this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 1:25 PM PST Thursday...Temps in the 60s to
lower 70s Central Coast the rest of this afternoon under mostly
sunny skies. Weak and dry upper low approaches the Central Coast
on Friday with little impact on the sensible weather. There will
be some southerly winds aloft and a drying of the airmass but
continued mostly sunny and mild with temps 60s to lower 70s
Central Coast.

Nice weather continues this weekend as the low ejects towards
Arizona and high pressure rebuilds over NorCal keeping our weather
uneventful and dry.

Really the main forecast focus is on rain chances and when they
will return. Things had looked hopeful for some rain next week but
now those chances have literally evaporated as the main trough
axis will stay well to our east. In the meantime look for dry high
pressure next week with no rain and highs generally in the 60s.

Inside sliders dropping into the Great Basin could produce periods
of dry offshore winds that will need to be monitored closely as
fuels continue to dry out. No real signal for any rain through the
first full week of February with ensemble members dry and 500 mb
cluster analysis showing various ridging scenarios as the most
likely outcome. Time to kick the can and focus towards the second
week of February for next possible pattern shift. One glimmer of
hope is several of the longer range models still suggest the PNA
trends negative in February.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 03:36 PM PST Thursday...For the 00Z TAFs.
Forecast is fairly quiet. Current conditions are VFR and clear.
Some light haze is possible Friday morning, but most terminals are
projected to be 6SM or better. Some high clouds move into the
region, but VFR is expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
fairly light, but localized breezy terrain influenced winds will
be the main impact through the next 24 hours.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR through the TAF. Winds will be mostly light
and variable with breezier conditions Thursday afternoon. Some
light haze is possible Thursday morning, but confidence for vis
below 6SM was too low to include in the TAF at this time.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay...VFR. Some additional high clouds could potentially
move over the land from the ocean, but no impacts at terminals.
Winds will be mostly light and variable winds except the return of
terrain driven breezy to gusty drainage winds through Salinas
Valley near KSNS is expected to return Friday morning. But VFR
conditions are expected through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...as of 08:54 PM PST Thursday...Light and variable winds
will turn to breezy and offshore along the immediate coastline
Friday morning, with strongest winds  through the Northern San
Francisco Bay and coastal gaps which may be hazardous for smaller
vessels. Winds are forecast to return to light and variable by
Friday afternoon. A pair of light, moderate period, west northwest
swells will move through the waters over  the next few days.
Strong northwest winds are forecast to return early next week that
are capable of building wind waves that may  exceed 10 to 15 feet
as the next northwest swell arrives.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay from 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/SPM
AVIATION: DK
MARINE: DK

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