


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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890 FXUS66 KMTR 111727 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1027 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Moderate HeatRisk for portions of the East and South Bay on Friday with localized pockets elsewhere across the North Bay and Central Coast. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across higher elevations. - Gradual cooling trend this weekend and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Did a quick update to the Max T for today. Based on the how the forecast did yesterday, a few degree cooler than observations, and based on the 24 hour temp change so far this morning, running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday, opted to bring today`s Max T up by a few degree. These increases were held to areas away from the immediate coast. Weak onshore flow and cool SSTs will keep temps in directly water adjacent areas moderated. Even with the slight bump up in temp, there remains no need for issuance of a heat advisory for today. That said, Livermore had a Max T of 80 on July 8th and 99 yesterday. Today should be about the same as yesterday. A jump of 20 degrees in 2 days can take a tool on the body. Treat this heat seriously and stay hydrated and out of the sun as much as possible. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery and profiler data show that the marine layer remains compressed around 1000 feet, with stratus confined to the coastal areas and in the Salinas Valley. Expect this to remain hold with stratus retreating to the coast by mid to late morning. Another warm and dry day is then on tap, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to 90s for most interior locations. Conditions will be cooler by the coast or where influenced by stratus, with highs varying from the upper 50s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 305 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 (Saturday through Thursday) No major changes to the forecast this period as upper level ridging looks to hold into early next week. That means we can expect to see a fairly repetitive forecast, with onshore flow leading to cooling trend this weekend and into early next week. Upper level troughing looks to dip back into the forecast mid week, which should usher in additional cooling and potentially deepen the marine layer. Expect daily cloudy nights and mornings, with clouds receding to the coast each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of HAF and MRY. Very similar forecast on tap for tomorrow as what occurred Thursday morning as the region begins to lose the influence of the ridge. As conditions begin to cool and relative humidity increases, more terminals (APC and STS) can expect the return of sub-VFR ceilings tonight as what occurred last night. The marine layer is currently being observed at 1,500 feet with little variation expected through the TAF period. Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California will likely filter into the region. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Moderate to high confidence on VFR prevailing through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with northwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. MRY should be able to scatter out shortly, nonetheless stratus will stick close to the coast through the afternoon with an early return of LIFR ceilings tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Strong northerly breezes with gale force gusts and rough to very rough seas will continue for the far northwestern portion of the northern outer waters through Saturday. Conditions improve Sunday, but similar hazardous conditions return Monday into Tuesday. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea