530
FXUS66 KMTR 132130
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
130 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 128 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

Winds ramping down this afternoon, giving way to a quiet pattern
with dry conditions expected through the long term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

Clear skies and cool temps abound under a dry airmass and weak
offshore flow. A weak closed upper low off the coast of SoCal moved
through this morning, leading to a brief period of gusty winds that
are still lingering in some areas, but are easing through midday. As
such, the Wind Advisory has been cancelled, and is no longer in
effect. Not really much else to talk about for the daytime today.
Chilly overnight temperatures will be the story again tonight with
temps in the mid-to-upper 30s across most interior areas, and even
some coastal areas such as Santa Cruz and the Monterey Bay area. A
Frost Advisory has been issued for all of the interior North Bay,
Bay Area, and Central Coast, as well as the Monterey Bay coastal
areas for tonight until 9 AM Tuesday morning.

Regarding smoke in the sky; you may notice a slightly more reddish
hue to the sunset this evening thanks to some very light smoke
concentration from some burning up in Canada, as well as the SoCal
fires. This smoke is not expected to cause any issues since it
will mostly be aloft and will be drifting out over the waters.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

Quite a quiet pattern with quite the signal for no rain in quite a
while. Make sense? Good. (coffee-fueled meteorologist brain fog
enters the chat)

Longwave ridging over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska with
a few embedded shortwaves dominates the West Coast pattern through
the next seven days. However, none of these cold-core shortwave
troughs will be deep enough to overcome the broad ridge pattern that
will eventually envelope the West Coast by mid-to-late this week.
These shortwaves feed into a deeper upper low out of the Hudson Bay,
promoting a very cold setup much of the rest of the US. However,
this also promotes a highly amplified ridge over the West Coast
which appears to remain stagnant through much of the last half of
the month as the Hudson Bay low persists. Unfortunately for us, this
means there is very little to no chance of rain for the second half
of January. The good news is that most of the Bay Area, and the
North Bay especially, have seen decent rain so far this year, so
fuel indices in regard to fire weather will take some time to
respond. Central Coast fuels are more on the drier side and will
dry out more quickly though. Will certainly be something to keep
an eye on through these next couple of weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 AM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Periods of gusty winds will persist
through early morning across the Bay Area terminals before easing by
this afternoon and especially so this evening. The threat of LLWS
across the North Bay has diminished as well. Winds will be
light/variable into the night and even into Tuesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty
northeast winds will affect the SF Bay through the morning and into
the afternoon before winds ease. Winds become light/variable into
Tuesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Light/variable
winds this morning for MRY and southerly for SNS. They will become
onshore this afternoon for a brief period. Southeast drainage winds
build into early Tuesday morning for SNS.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 954 AM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

Gale force gusts linger in the northern outer waters early this
morning with other areas seeing breezy to gusty winds lasting
through the afternoon. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will
persist through the midday with elevated wave heights between 9
to 13 feet expected. Winds ease and seas subside into the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510-
     512>518-528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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