314
FXUS66 KMTR 040516
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
916 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

 - Moderate to strong winds expected along the coast and across
   higher terrain Wednesday through Friday

 - Offshore winds will bring warmer weather this weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

No update to the forecast this evening. Slight rain chances
persist in far northern Sonoma County near the coast as an upper
level trough axis begins pushing through overnight and the
associated surface cold front begins pushing south through our
area. Surface winds will begin to increase after sunset especially
along the North Bay coast at first and higher elevations inland.
The stronger surface winds will persist through Friday, however
the spatial and temporal extent of the winds aren`t quite there
for a wind advisory attm, though some isolated inland peaks and
coastal locations may see occasional gusts of 45 MPH or higher by
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(This evening through Wednesday)

Mostly sunny skies have returned to the region this afternoon,
except for coastal locations of Marin County and the San Francisco
Peninsula. As such, temperatures are forecast to warm up to
around 10 degrees F above seasonal averages in the warmest
interior valleys has a short wave ridge builds ahead of an
approaching mid/upper level trough.

A rather dry cold front is forecast to move through the region on
Wednesday morning with increasing north to northwest winds
developing by the late morning and more so by the afternoon. There
remains a slight chance for light rain across far northern Sonoma
County, yet not expecting much if any measurable rainfall. The
strongest winds tomorrow will remain over the coastal waters,
along the coastline, and in the higher terrain with gusts up to
35-45 mph. However, at this time, we do not anticipate a Wind
Advisory as widespread coverage does not appear to be great
enough. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be near seasonal
averages in wake of the frontal passage with clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 117 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Moderate winds are forecast to resume Wednesday night into
Thursday and will limit the cooling potential. As such, expecting
upper 30s to lower 40s across the interior with low to upper 40s
across the remainder of the region. Winds increase once again
Thursday afternoon with similar directions and speeds as
previously mentioned in the short term discussion.

Friday and Saturday will begin a warming trend as the mid/upper
level low pressure moves from the Great Basin into the
Intermountain West. This will result in offshore flow, especially
for the higher terrain across the region. By Sunday afternoon,
temperatures are forecast to be between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal resulting in more widespread Minor HeatRisk. This will be
as a mid/upper level cut off low develops off the coast of Baja
California.

The forecast ensembles show continued ridging across the region
which supports the Climate Prediction Center`s above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation in the 8-14 Day
Outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

It`s VFR inland and VFR-MVFR-IFR along the immediate coastline
with increasing low clouds. Onshore winds (shallow pool of cooler
air) ahead of the next cold front arriving Wednesday will usher
low clouds inland tonight and Wednesday, with partial clearing and
gusty post frontal winds developing by late Wednesday morning and
afternoon. It`s been a while since we`ve had robust, gusty
northwest winds and cold water upwelling over our coastal waters
which has allowed sea surface temperatures to warm 4F to 5F above
typical readings for the time of year. We are due for robust
northwest winds and spring/early summer seasons often deliver
these winds. Of course the chilly sea surface temps supports our
fog/stratus seasons as well.

Vicinity of SFO...It`s MVFR-IFR with a cloud ceiling and gusty
onshore wind recently to 30 knots. Onshore winds will continue to
usher low clouds inland tonight and Wednesday. Post cold front
westerly wind becoming gusty to 30 knots or possibly higher
Wednesday if not late morning then in the afternoon. Gusty
westerly wind likely continues Wednesday evening and overnight
into early Thursday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /MVFR/ increasing tonight and
Wednesday morning ahead of the next cold front arriving Wednesday.
Gusty post frontal westerly to northwesterly winds to 25 to 30 knots
developing in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 855 PM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

A moderate northwest breeze tonight increases to a strong
northwest breeze on Wednesday and near gale force winds by
Thursday. These winds will build very rough seas of 12 to 15 feet
across exposed waters Thursday through Friday. Both of these
impacts will result in widespread hazardous conditions across the
coastal waters. Seas and winds will abate for the coming weekend,
but hazards to small craft persist in the northern outer waters
with strong north winds and rough seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...DialH

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