058
FXUS66 KMTR 110554
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
954 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

A strong offshore wind event returns late tonight and continues
through Sunday morning for the higher elevations of the Bay Area
and into the Santa Cruz mountains. There may be another push of
gusty winds Monday through Tuesday. Dry weather persists through the
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Satellite imagery shows low stratus coming into the coast from
around Bodega Bay to Pigeon Point and flowing into the Oakland
area. The Bodega Bay buoy is reporting an uptick in wind speeds
with a dry cold front that is moving through the region, expected
to spread across the outer waters through the rest of the evening.
On land, a Wind Advisory will go into effect at midnight tonight for
the interior North Bay mountains, the East Bay and eastern Santa
Clara Hills, and the Santa Cruz Mountains.

With rising astronomical tides, a Coastal Flood Advisory was
issued from 5 AM to noon on Saturday for minor Bayshore flooding
along the San Francisco and San Pablo Bays. Low lying lots and
parks along the Bayside coast may see minor flooding with
isolated road closures expected. The next high tide at San
Francisco is expected at 834 AM Saturday with a height of 6.80
feet. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed
around high tide through Tuesday. Remember that if you see a
closed or flooded road, turn around and don`t drown!

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Upper level high pressure is being squashed by a shortwave trough
moving into the PacNW today, while a deep upper level trough digs
into northwestern Mexico. This leaves us with with quasi weak
troughing and more zonal upper level flow through the weekend. Gusty
north to northeast winds will be observed in response, with the
strongest winds being over the hills and higher elevations of Santa
Cruz county and the North, East, and South Bay counties as well.
Winds begin to increase late tonight and continue through Sunday
morning before weakening some. Outside of these winds, the other
concern to keep an eye are overnight low temperatures. Tonight,
the coldest areas should be across the interior areas of San
Benito and Monterey counties, including the south Salinas Valley.
Lows will range from roughly 32 to 36 degrees, though some areas
in Monterey and San Benito counties will be warmer and in the low
to mid 40s and upper 30s respectively. A Frost Advisory was
hoisted from late tonight through tomorrow morning as enough of
these highlighted areas fell into the 32 to 36 degree range. There
looks to be additional cold nights in our future, so we`ll need
to keep an eye on low temperature forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Ensembles and cluster analysis shows troughing setting up over the
west, and an area of low pressure cutting off somewhere over
southern or central California. Unfortunately for us, there is no
rain in our future, just dry weather. Another round of breezy
winds is possible Monday into Tuesday, perhaps being more confined
to the North and East Bay areas. Much like the previous shift,
the NBM isn`t hitting Wind Advisory criteria, nor do any of the
ensembles really highlight it either. Will need to watch and see
how the hi- res models pan out and we get better determination as
to where the low situates. Outside of that, guidance does seem to
favor chilly overnight lows this week. NBM seems to be a good
solution for now to capture these temperatures, which fall into
the 30s for much of the area perhaps low 40s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 954 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions overnight with some potential for IFR
conditions to develop across the North Bay. Continued onshore flow
and higher RH values will result in patchy/temporary lowered
CIGs/VIS across the Bay Area through 10Z and through 12-13Z for the
Central Coast. Winds are expected to shift offshore again (out of N
to NE) after 10Z which will bring in drier air to the region and
improve CIG/VIS conditions. Patchy fog is possible at STS through
10Z with chances decreasing after as drier air filters in. Gusty,
northerly winds will return by mid to late morning and continue into
the evening hours. Most sites will see winds starting to weaken by
the late evening but a few may not see more substantial weakening
until shortly after the end of this TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence that VFR will persist through
the TAF period. MVFR CIGs may develop between 06-10Z but confidence
is low to moderate. Satellite shows an incoming push of low level
clouds with SFO continuing to report onshore flow. By 10-12Z, winds
will shift offshore and bring with it drier conditions which
increases confidence in VFR conditions from this point onwards.
Gusty northerly winds will increase during the day before weakening
by the late evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy broken clouds remain possible
through 10-12Z as onshore flow brings more moist air into the
region. Winds will become more northerly and gusty by mid to late
morning with wind gusts between 15 to 18 knots expected. Winds will
start to weaken by the evening hours and into the overnight
period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 954 PM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

Strong and gusty northerly winds are developing as a dry frontal
boundary moves through the region tonight into Saturday morning.
Wave heights build to 10 to 15 feet in the wake of the passing
front and remain elevated through the weekend. The strongest
winds will be located over the northern outer waters where gale
force gusts are likely through the weekend. Seas reamin elevated
into the start of the upcoming workweek, but winds look to
diminish.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to noon PST Saturday for CAZ006-
     506-508.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for CAZ504-512-514-515.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for CAZ516>518.

PZ...Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...DialH

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