Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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914 FXUS64 KFWD 251844 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 144 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend/ There is a chance for isolated instances of severe weather late this afternoon and evening across North Texas. Hot and humid weather is also expected this weekend across the region. Heat... Our attention has largely been on the severe weather, but a much more widespread impact the next few days will be the heat. We have issued a Heat Advisory for parts of Eastern Central Texas for this afternoon. We will collaborate with neighboring offices and assess new data over the next few hours to decide if we will extend the advisory through tomorrow or Monday afternoon. As a reminder, our Heat Advisory criteria is a heat index value >= 105 F (or ambient temperature >= 103 F) for two consecutive days. Most locations will hit this value either today or tomorrow, and most outside of the advisory will not hit it both days. Today`s main concern will be heat index values between 103-109 for most of the area. It will be hot, humid, and mostly sunny for a good part of the afternoon. A dryline will move into our area tomorrow, resulting in temperatures soaring into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees for most locations along and west of I-35. Areas east of the dryline will contend with another day of 105+ degree heat index values. If you plan to spend extended periods of time outdoors this weekend, please remember to have a plan to beat the heat: Drink plenty of water, limit time spent outdoors in direct sunlight, wear light- colored and breathable clothing, and be able to recognize the symptoms of heat illness. Severe Weather... Yesterday`s remnant boundaries are in the process of washing out as a low pressure center deepens to our northwest. A vigorous shortwave trough will eject out of the Rockies this afternoon, helping strengthen pressure falls and provide a source of large scale ascent later today. A dryline is becoming better defined well to our west (currently west of Childress and near Big Spring) that will advance east this afternoon. We`re still not 100% sure exactly where or when the first storms of the day will take place as the CAM guidance has had modest to poor run-to-run consistency regarding this aspect. Mesoanalysis satellite data has already started to indicate a few modest updraft towers going up within a shallow cumulus field between Sterling City and Spur...or about 50 miles ahead of the dryline. If these updrafts are able to mature into mature thunderstorms, they would approach our forecast area between ~5-6PM this afternoon. There is a 30% chance of this occurring. We are not expecting any thunderstorms in our area earlier than 5PM due to a very strong cap residing over our forecast area. Surface heating alone should not be sufficient to break the cap without the help of forced ascent by either the dryline or the supercell itself. We are mainly concerned about *isolated* supercells developing along the dryline late this afternoon to our northwest. CI is most likely to take place where a moisture/theta-e ridge extends into the dryline west of Wichita Falls/Abilene. Storms will develop in a highly buoyant and well-sheared atmosphere, more than capable of supporting supercells. Both left and right splitting storms will also be likely this afternoon and evening. As is usually the case...right moving supercells will have a higher potential of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, while left moving supercells will primarily have a large hail threat. As the storms move off the boundary this evening, the storms should remain isolated as they continue east into our forecast area after about 7PM. The nocturnal low-level jet will strengthen and provide sufficient inflow to maintain the storm`s intensity several hours after sunset (particularly any right-moving storms). Most CAM guidance only has 1 or 2 storms moving across North Texas this evening, so while the coverage of severe weather will be low...any storm that lives into the evening should pack a punch. The storms should gradually weaken as they ingest more CIN overnight, this is particularly true for areas along and east of I-35. While an isolated storm can`t be ruled out after midnight, most storms will end before this time. Tomorrow morning will start precip-free, but there is a 10% chance of isolated storms developing along a dryline over east/northeast Texas late in the day. Near parallel flow to the boundary will limit moisture convergence, and therefore the convective potential. However, similar to today...any storm that develops should be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 214 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ /Monday and Beyond/ Much of the region will remain rain-free through the early portions of next week as dry, subsident air remains positioned over North and Central Texas behind a passing mid-level shortwave. A weak cold front will sink south of the Red River by Sunday evening bringing east-northeasterly winds to much of North Texas through Monday. Afternoon highs will peak in the low to mid-90s south of I-20 on Monday with highs in the upper 80s along the Red River north of that frontal boundary. Rain chances could return as early as Monday evening across portions of eastern North and Central Texas on the nose of strengthening 925-850mb warm-air advection. Additional daily chances for rain will return by the middle of next week as a dryline sharpens over West Texas and a series of disturbances round about the northern periphery of a building mid-/upper ridge over Mexico. Although it is a bit early to discuss severe weather impacts for the middle of next week, repeated rounds of thunderstorms could increase the potential for flash flooding concerns, especially over the areas that received the bulk of the rainfall this past week. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s and warm, humid overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s all of next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR stratus over North Texas will gradually lift/scatter over the next 1-2 hours. Similar to yesterday, the skies will be hazy all day with 6-9 SM visibility expected through the afternoon. We have omitted this detail from the TAF due to its low operational impact. Our main concern will be another round of thunderstorms moving toward the area late in the day. A few storms are starting to go up well to the west of D10 at this time. These storms will move east, with only a 10% chance they live long enough to move into D10 or ACT airspace around/after 00Z. Additional storms should develop near the Bowie feeder routes between 21-23Z that will move east/southeast late in the day/*this evening. These should encroach on the D10 terminals after 00-01Z and move east after a couple hours. The storms will be isolated, so there is only a 30% chance of storms directly impacting the terminals at this time. After the storms move east, VFR and south flow should prevail before another round of MVFR stratus moves in early Sunday morning. The stratus should clear by mid-late morning with breezy south-southwest flow expected tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 74 97 73 93 / 5 30 5 0 5 Waco 92 74 95 73 93 / 0 5 5 0 5 Paris 87 72 91 69 89 / 5 30 10 10 5 Denton 92 73 96 69 91 / 10 40 5 0 0 McKinney 90 74 94 71 90 / 5 30 10 5 5 Dallas 92 74 97 74 94 / 5 20 5 0 5 Terrell 90 73 91 72 90 / 5 20 10 5 5 Corsicana 92 75 93 75 93 / 0 10 5 0 5 Temple 93 74 95 73 94 / 0 5 5 0 5 Mineral Wells 94 72 100 68 93 / 20 30 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ147-148-158>162- 174-175. && $$