Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
354 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

Convection still lingers through the early short term period,
looking at guidance, expecting a decrease in widespread convection
around 15 Z, but that time will be brief. There will still be some
isolated showers and storms developing. Coverage will increase
again this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Essentially,
it`ll be a repeat of the past couple of nights, with the
potential for a couple of storms to be severe. Lows this morning
will be similar to yesterday`s ranging in the low to mid 50s.

Expecting to be slightly warmer today with temperatures ranging in
the mid to upper 70s across the Tri-State area. Lows will be in
the low to mid 50s Tuesday night. Potential for fog cannot be
ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Strong lapse rates and moderate CAPE will dominate the High Plains
on Wednesday ahead of a surface trough. Guidance is showing steep
mid/low level lapse rates, and decent CAPE, highs are expected to
be in the low to mid 80s which will be enough to generate a couple
of severe storms. Showers and storms could produce damaging winds
and hail.

WAA continues to pull into the Tri-State area Wednesday night into
Thursday, and by Thursday evening a surface lee trough will start
it`s trek across Nebraska stretching into portions of our area.
Another day of large CAPE, decent lapse rates, and afternoon
heating (in the mid 80s) with decent 0-6km shear, definitely
expecting supercells to impact our area Thursday evening into the
overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Tue May 15 2018

Friday...the forecast area is in southwest flow aloft with an upper
low and associated trough over parts of Utah in the morning. During
the afternoon and overnight hours some of the energy with the trough
is forecast to lift northeast into the area late. At the surface low
pressure is forecast to organize in southeast Colorado late in the
day then move slowly east into south central Kansas overnight.
Northeast winds will be the dominant direction. GFS model suggesting
up to 4K J/kg of CAPE generally along and north of the interstate
where low level convergence is maximized. However, there is quite a
large mid level dry slot covering that area with better moisture
across the western and eastern 1/4 of the area. Regardless, severe
weather is possible. For the overnight hours moisture below 700mb
increases behind the front favoring showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm. Current high temperatures range from the mid 70s in
the northwest to the upper 80s to around 90 generally south of the
interstate. However, if the current GFS 850mb temperatures verify
readings would be several degrees higher. Low temperatures range
from the upper 40s to low 50s for far eastern Colorado to around 60
in Hill City. frontal moisture in the 850-700mb layer increases
across the area supporting a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky
during the day and partly to mostly cloudy sky during the night.
Could see breezy north winds during the day decreasing during the
night. High temperatures look to be below normal ranging from the
mid 50s to around 60 in the northwest to the low to mid 70s from
Tribune to Hill City. Low temperatures range from the low 40s west
to upper 40s east. Will have a continued chance for rain showers
with the best chance (at this time) generally along and north of the
interstate. Given the post frontal cloudiness, much cooler
temperatures and no surface instability I removed the mention of

Sunday...the forecast area transitions toward some zonal flow aloft
ahead of an upper level low which develops and dives south off the
southwest California coast. There could be a few showers as some
moisture in the 700-500mb layer moves across the area from the west
per GFS solution. High temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with
lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Monday...little change in the upper level pattern as the upper low
over southwest California moves little, perhaps a bit to the
northeast. Could be some disturbances that move across the area
ahead of the low supporting some slight chance/low change pops for
thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with lows
in the low to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Mon May 14 2018

At GLD, VFR conditions will drop to IFR as low clouds spread
across the area with light north winds. Ceilings will raise
somewhat following sunrise with MVFR conditions expected after 16Z
that eventually transition to VFR after 21Z.

MCK will see VFR conditions through the TAF period with a brief
potential for lower clouds to produce limited MVFR conditions
between 11Z-14Z.




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