Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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787 FXUS63 KDVN 032302 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 602 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active summer-like pattern early this week with warm/muggy conditions and multiple chances of showers and storms. An isolated shower or storm is possible this evening into tonight with better chances for scattered storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Mainly dry mid week into the weekend with pleasant temperatures and lower humidity. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A true summertime air mass in place over the region today, with heat and humidity widespread in the region. Pwat values are around the 90th percentile, 1.4 to 1.6", but forcing is weak and this is resulting in an over-forecast of Pops by the NBM in general. The forcing today within this warm sector has been on the southern flank of the MCV which is moving through Wisconsin today. That has provided enough forcing to get several rounds of storms that have been strong at times going in our northern tier of counties (CAPE values are 2500-3000). Farther south, with less forcing, we`ve bubbled up some towering cumulus, and a couple orphan anvil storms, but the lack of convergence and shear has kept this activity from getting going. Isolated 1" + rains are expected with storms in the north today. Looking upstream in this moist flow, another significant MCV is located in central KS, and models do bring that up through the flow tonight, reaching our south towards morning. So, after the evening chance for storms, mainly north, we`ll probably be dry tonight, with some threat moving back in by morning south. It`ll be warm and humid, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday, the MCV could bring persistent showers and storms to the area, assuming it maintains it`s circulation, which is not something we have high confidence in. It should at least provide cloud cover, keeping highs in the lower to mid 80s again. These slow moving storm chances south, will again provide a low confidence placement, but high confidence on heavy rain potential with the very moist air mass in place. Looking at Tuesday night, a later evening arrival of the cold front is now forecast, with most severe weather parameters waning before they enter our CWA. This still looks like a widespread line as is moves through our area, but with a widespread wind event does not appear likely. Another QPF of 0.25 to 0.75 is expected with the line, which is lower than earlier forecasts and trending downward, due to the decaying nature of the line as is moves through. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Wednesday through early next week continue to look beautiful and comfortable. There could be a few passing showers and storms in the cyclonic flow aloft through Wednesday night, but following that, mainly dry weather is expected through the next 5-6 days. Highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s should last into early next week! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR is expected to prevail through tonight into Tuesday AM with a low chance for an isolated shower or storm. However, due to the expectation for very low areal coverage did not mention thunder in the TAFs through tonight. An area of low pressure is forecast to track over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois later Tuesday, bringing a chance for redevelopment of scattered showers and storms for the afternoon and evening; have low confidence on the exact timing and coverage of storms so will message thunder potential with PROB30 groups for now. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech