Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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451
FXUS63 KDVN 092104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
304 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RAN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WITH MORE ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BASED ON RADAR AND RAP MODEL TRENDS...THE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RATHER RAPID DISSIPATION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT...PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW
ZERO.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN REASONABLY BRISK DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
MAY SEE WIND CHILLS APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. BY MID WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A
VINTON IOWA...TO MACOMB ILLINOIS LINE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OR
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT ANY SNOW TO FLURRIES BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS TO BE A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS THAT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA ALONG WITH A 1040+
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.  SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXPECT FORECASTS TO VARY GREATLY LEADING INTO THE EVENT.  WIND
CHILLS ON FRIDAY NIGHT STILL APPEAR TO REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A CLIPPER SHOULD BE WELL PAST THE
CWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  DETERMINISTIC GRIDDED AND SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL BE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THURSDAY.  HIRES CAMS KEEP ALL OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA AND
RESULT IN NO SNOW AFTER 00Z THU. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO NOT ADD ANY
QPF OR SNOW ACCUM DURING THIS PERIOD. DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION AND INCLUDE A SCHC OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRANSVERSE THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING.  THE GEM APPEARS TO SEND THIS CLIPPER WELL INTO THE
CWA WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE
REST OF THE MODELS.  AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS AT THIS
TIME.  THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS MOVE BACK AND
FORTH.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IF THE GEM VERIFIES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY A STRONG 1040+ HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
WIND CHILL HEADLINES POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM.  THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY A STRONG WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE N CONUS.
GUIDANCE PREDICTS QPF ACROSS THE AREA.  WARMER AIR WILL LIKELY BE
ADVECTED NORTH BY THIS WAVE.  AT THIS TIME THERE ARE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THERE WILL
BE A CHC FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z/10 THAT MAY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. IF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTS A TAF SITE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AFT 00Z/10 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08



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